Post on 20-Aug-2020
SLIDE 1
RENEWABLE TECHNOLOGIES IN THE FUTURE NEM
API Summer School - 24 Feb 2016
MAGNUS HINDSBERGER AND NILESH MODI
SLIDE 2
AUSTRALIAN ENERGY MARKET OPERATOR (AEMO)
• AEMO’s core functions are within: o NEM and WEM
Ø System Operator Ø Market Operator
o Transmission Services o National Transmission Planner o Gas Markets Operator o Energy Market Development
• Governance: o Joint government (60%) and
industry (40%) ownership o Not for profit o Funded by Market Participants
SLIDE 3
THE JOURNEY TODAY
• Renewable developments today
• Visions of the future o International policy objectives o 100% renewables in the NEM study
• Challenges getting there o Issues found in AEMO’s integration of
renewables studies o Solutions pursued internationally
SLIDE 4
POP QUIZ
What were the top 3 technologies (by type) in terms of new installed capacity in 2015? • In USA?
o Wind: 48% o Gas: 36% o Solar: 13%
• In Europe? o Wind: 44% o Solar: 30% o Coal: 16%
64% renewables 77% renewables
Source: FERC, Feb 2016 Source: EWEA, Feb 2016
SLIDE 5
SAME TREND IN AUSTRALIA?
Committed projects in the NEM as per Oct 2015:
• QLD: o Kogan Creek Solar Thermal Boost (44 MW)
• NSW: o Moree Solar Farm (56 MW)
• Victoria: o Ararat Wind Farm (240 MW) o Coonooer Bridge Wind Farm (20 MW)
• South Australia: o Hornsdale Wind Farm (102 MW) Source: AEMO generation
information page, Oct 2015
All (100%) is renewable
The 2014 Electricity Statement of Opportunities (ESOO) reported surplus generation capacity of 7,400 MW in the National Electricity Market (NEM) by 2023−24. The market has responded in the past year by notifying its intent to withdraw approximately 4,550 MW of capacity (about half the surplus) by 2022.
Source: 2015 Electricity Statement of Opportunities
SLIDE 6
MOVING TOWARDS HIGH PENETRATIONS
• California: o 25% renewable electricity target for 2016 o 33% renewable electricity target for 2020
• Germany: o 35% of electricity from renewables by 2020 and 80% by 2050
• Ireland: o 40% renewable electricity target for 2020
• Sweden: o 50% renewable energy by 2020 (share for electricity higher)
• Denmark: o Current policy will deliver ~50% of its electricity supply from wind
by 2020 with another ~20% from biomass o Longer term targets are 100% of electricity and heat to be
renewable by 2035, and 100% of transport renewable by 2050
SLIDE 7
100% RENEWABLE ELECTRICITY SUPPLY IN AUSTRALIA
• 100% renewable Electricity supply in Australia: o Is it possible? o What would it look like?
• In 2012, AEMO was commissioned to undertake such as study.
• Part of the previous Government’s Clean Energy Future Plan.
• Scenario 1 by 2030 and 2050 o Moderate economic growth, fast transformation
• Scenario 2 by 2030 and 2050 o High economic growth, moderate transformation
SLIDE 8
THE BUILDING BLOCKS
Storage
Network
All building block assumptions published in September 2012: http://webarchive.nla.gov.au/gov/20140211194248/http://www.climatechange.gov.au/reducing-carbon/aemo-report-100-renewable-electricity-scenarios
SLIDE 9
DEMAND – AND DEMAND SIDE OPTIONS
Scenario POE
2029-30 2049-50 Summer
MD (MW)
Winter MD
(MW)
Annual Energy (GWh)
Summer MD
(MW)
Winter MD
(MW)
Annual Energy (GWh)
Scenario 1 – moderate growth, fast transformation
10% 37,203 38,611 214,771
40,872 43,095 259,709
50% 34,969 37,134 38,476 41,444
Scenario 2 – high growth, moderate transformation
10% 42,711 43,283 255,945
50,922 53,036 323,498
50% 40,122 41,627 48,020 51,005
Note: • NEM is Winter peaking under all four cases due to contribution for rooftop solar PV • Impact (if any) of EVs on Summer and Winter MD not captured above, as EV charging is
optimised based on generation availability
For comparison, in financial year 2010-11: • Annual Energy was ~196,000 GWh • Maximum Demand was ~34,000 MW (Summer peaking)
10% DSP
5% DSP
SLIDE 10
Utility PV
CST
Geothermal
Wind (on shore)
Wave
• Historical hourly data for renewable generation by “polygons” will capture locational differences in resource quality
• It will capture geographical (lack of) correlation and its impact on “smoothing” generation
• Demand is still based on states
43 locational polygons covering the NEM region (with some additions)
SUPPLY SIDE OPTIONS
Costs based on BREE AETA 2012 study (and CSIRO adjustments)
SLIDE 11
Resource Max. installable generation capacity (GW)
Max. recoverable electricity (TWh/yr)
Wind – onshore (> 35% CF) 880 3,100
Wind – offshore (> 50% CF) 660 3,100
Solar – CST / PV 18,500 / 24,100 41,600 / 71,700
EGS (hot dry rocks) 5,140 36,040
HSA (sedimentary aquifer) 360 2,530
Biomass 16 110
Wave 130 280
Hydro 8 12
Total 25,700 / 31,300 86,800 / 116,900
Current NEM 50 200
SUPPLY SIDE RESOURCE ESTIMATES
500 times the capacity/recoverable energy needed
SLIDE 12 Source: BREE (2012)
SUPPLY SIDE TECHNOLOGY COSTS
Fossil technologies Renewable technologies
SLIDE 13
TRANSMISSION OPTIONS
Existing interconnectors
New supply-driven options
Major remote renewable resources
Major load centres
North QLD
South QLD
Darling Downs
Cooper Basin
EastNSW
TAS
VIC Mid/South SA
Flinders/Eyre
Broken Hill
Mid NSW
SLIDE 14
STORAGE OPTIONS $/
MW
h (l
og s
cale
)
Source: CSIRO and ROAM
SLIDE 15
COMBINING THE BUILDING BLOCKS – OVERALL MODELLING APPROACH
Demand data Generation data Storage data
Probabilistic modelling
Transmission review Operations review
Results
Unserved energy (USE) + storage check
Transmission data
5000 synthetic days 365 historical days (+detail)
Time sequential modelling
SLIDE 16
OPERATIONS REVIEW - CONSIDERATIONS
• System inertia and frequency control • Steady state and dynamic voltage control • Fault ride through and other generation performance
standards of asynchronous devices (e.g. wind and PV) • Ensuring minimum fault level infeed • Variability and forecast uncertainty of wind and PV • System ramping capability of dispatchable plant
• Impact from decreasing amounts of synchronous and dispatchable generation common theme across all
SLIDE 17
OPERATIONS REVIEW – OUTCOMES
Synchronous generation: • Metric used for assessment – percentage of synchronous
generation needed at any time • CST/biomass out of merit dispatch to meet metric • Add dispatchable synchronous plant to areas where metric
could not be met otherwise
Forecasting: • Added extra dispatch costs due to forecasting uncertainty of
variable generation
Ramping: • Calculate CST with three hour ramp rate as sensitivity (one
hour ramp rate used in main report)
SLIDE 18
TRANSMISSION REVIEW
• Considered: o HVAC vs HVDC o Feasibility of maintaining
mainland NEM as one AC region • Transmission network designed
to withstand a single credible contingency without loss of supply
• Calculated transmission cost estimates as $/kW capacity for different locations.
• Iterative process, as generation build was adjusted to account for transmission price signals, costs changed as well.
SLIDE 19
RESULTS - CAVEATS
• The future is highly uncertain when looking out 40 years: o New technologies could emerge o The predicted cost of technologies will change o Any changes to the inputs, assumptions and underlying
sensitivities could result in considerably different outcomes • Costs are optimistic:
o All the new generation is built at the forecast 2030 or 2050 costs taking full advantage of anticipated technology cost reductions (no pathway assumed)
o Excludes a number of cost elements such land acquisition and potential distribution network upgrades
o Also financing costs are simplified • No BAU case
SLIDE 20
KEY OBSERVATIONS
• A wide range of technologies and locations are likely to be needed
• More capacity relative to maximum demand is likely to be required (200%) compared with today
• The high level operational review found that operational issues appear manageable
• Considerable solar PV generation in all four cases drives demand and load pattern changes
• Considerable bioenergy could be required, however this may present some challenges with competing land uses.
SLIDE 21
GENERATION MIX - CAPACITY
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
140,000
S1 2030 S1 2050 S2 2030 S2 2050
Inst
alle
d ge
nera
tion
capa
city
(MW
)
Biogas
Hydro (incl. pumpedhydro)CST
PV (utility)
PV (rooftop)
Wind
Bagasse
Wave
Biomass
Geothermal
SLIDE 22
TRANSMISSION FLOW EXAMPLES
North QLD
South QLD
Cooper Basin
EastNSW
TAS
VICMid/South SA
Flinders/Eyre
Broken Hill
Mid NSW
North QLD
South QLD
Cooper Basin
EastNSW
TAS
VICMid/South SA
Flinders/Eyre
Mid NSW
Scenario 1 2030 Scenario 1 2050AC
HVDC
AC
HVDC
North QLD
South QLD
EastNSW
TAS
VICMid/South SA
Flinders/Eyre
Mid NSW
North QLD
South QLD
Darling Downs
EastNSW
TAS
VICMid/South SA
Flinders/Eyre
Mid NSW
Scenario 2 2030 Scenario 2 2050AC
HVDC
AC
HVDC
SLIDE 23
LOAD SHAPE
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
Mon 6 Jun Tue 7 Jun Wed 8 Jun Thu 9 Jun Fri 10 Jun Sat 11 Jun Sun 12 Jun
Supp
ly a
nd d
eman
d (h
ourly
ave
rage
) (M
W)
Geothermal Biomass (wood) Wave
Bagasse Wind (onshore) PV (rooftop)
PV (utility) Concentrated solar thermal Hydro (incl. pumped hydro)
Biogas Nominal demand Demand using flexibility
New load shape peak assuming flexible demand
Traditional load shape peak
SLIDE 24
IMPACT ON PRICES
Hypothetical wholesale prices Scenario 1
2030 ($/MWh)
Scenario 1 2050
($/MWh)
Scenario 2 2030
($/MWh)
Scenario 2 2050
($/MWh)
Total wholesale energy 111 112 128 133
Current wholesale energy (2012 estimate) 55 55 55 55
Additional wholesale energy 56 57 73 78
Additional transmission 10 10 6 6
Hypothetical retail prices Scenario 1
2030 (c/kWh)
Scenario 1 2050
(c/kWh)
Scenario 2 2030
(c/kWh)
Scenario 2 2050
(c/kWh)
Average additional retail 6.6 6.7 8.0 8.5
SLIDE 25
100% RENEWABLES RESULTS - IN HINDSIGHT
Future key technologies: • Solar PV !!! • Base load synchronous generation:
o Geothermal o Biomass
• Load following/firming capacity o Solar thermal w. storage o Biogas fuelled gas turbines
Current key technologies that may be less relevant: • Any thermal base load technologies • Wind
Technologies likely to play a major role, but not covered: • Battery storage
Issues with technology development/acceptance. What will then provide system inertia and fast MW response?
Yes – already impacting loadshape
Could still be an option
Could help solve some system integration issues along with say synchronous condensers
SLIDE 26
GROWTH OF PV IN THE NEM
Comparison of rooftop PV forecasts NEFR Fig 3
100% renewables Scen 1
100% renewables Scen 2
SLIDE 27
CURRENT RENEWABLE PENETRATION: SOME INTERNATIONAL COMPARISONS
Balancing Area Peak Demand Annual Energy Installed Wind (% peak)
Installed PV (% peak)
Texas 68,000 MW 340 TWh 12,400 MW (18%) 300 MW (0.4%)
NEM 35,000 MW 194 TWh 3,600 MW (10%) 3,440 MW (10%)
Ireland (all island) 6,600 MW 35.4 TWh 2,325 MW (35%) 1 MW (0%)
South Australia 3,400 MW 13.2 TWh 1,475 MW (43%) 565 MW (17%)
Hawaii (Oahu) 1,140 MW 7.0 TWh 99 MW (9%) 221 MW (19%)
Source: ERCOT, EirGrid, SONI, HECO
SLIDE 28
SOUTH AUSTRALIA: SOLAR PV
370 MW
Faster load ramp up
Comparing Boxing day 2011 with Boxing Day 2014
Mid-day low
Midnight peak
SLIDE 29
UNDERSTANDING DEMAND SIDE IMPACTS
• Accurate forecasts for demand is important for both system and market
• Demand is changing rapidly • AEMO need to address this:
o Solar forecasting system – stage 2 (rooftop PV) o Battery forecasting system next? o How will consumers act in the future:
Ø Little engagement Ø Active buyers (product innovation) Ø Active buyers and sellers (potential disruptive technologies
and business models)
SLIDE 30
SOUTH AUSTRALIA: WIND PENETRATION
Additional wind farms are being built
Increase in rooftop PV reduces grid demand
More thermal plants will close
SLIDE 31
PERFORMANCE OF GENERATORS
SLIDE 32
LEARNING FROM ABROAD
Examples of projects overseas worth following: • DS3: Program of work to facilitate higher penetration of
non-synchronous generation o Ireland
• SOF: System operability framework o UK
• Building synchronous condensers to reduce need for thermal generation in a high wind penetration system o Denmark
SLIDE 33
DS3: DELIVERING A SECURE SUSTAINABLE ELECTRICITY SYSTEM
• DS3 Programme Objective To develop solutions to the challenges associated with operating the power system in a secure, reliable and economic manner while achieving Ireland’s 2020 renewable electricity targets
SLIDE 34
DS3: RATE OF CHANGE OF FREQUENCY
Ireland currently has a system RoCoF limit of 0.5 Hz/sec, and is trying to raise it to 1 Hz/sec. An increased system RoCoF limit will be necessary to allow increased penetration of wind generation in the Irish system.
SLIDE 35
INCREASE OF SNSP TO 55% - SYSTEM TRIAL
http://www.eirgridgroup.com/how-the-grid-works/ds3-programme/
Curtailments
SLIDE 36
INCREASE OF SNSP TO 55% - SYSTEM TRIAL
http://www.eirgridgroup.com/how-the-grid-works/ds3-programme/
From 16 October to 8 January the SNSP was over 50% for 10% of the time
No fundamental difference in system behaviour between 50% to 55%
Operating system with SNSP up to 55% will reduce curtailment
Trial to end Q1 2016
SLIDE 37
NATIONALGRID – SOF 2015
http://www2.nationalgrid.com/UK/Industry-information/Future-of-Energy/System-Operability-Framework/
The System Operability Framework (SOF) 2015 outlines how the future o p e r a b i l i t y o f t h e e l e c t r i c i t y transmission system is expected to change in response to the impact of developments outlined in the Future Energy Scenarios (FES) 2015. It also highlights the new opportunities for developing more innovative solutions and serv ices to enhance the operability of the power networks in Great Britain.
SLIDE 38
SYSTEM OPERABILITY FRAMEWORK (SOF) 2015
http://www2.nationalgrid.com/UK/Industry-information/Future-of-Energy/System-Operability-Framework/
SLIDE 39
KEY MESSAGES – SOF 2015
• System Inertia o Continues to decline across all future energy scenarios o 30 – 40 % increase in primary frequency response
requirement in next 5 years o By 2030, the response requirement will be between 3 to 4 times
today’s level • Embedded Generation
o Increases number of operability challenges but also potential for the provision of system services
o Immediate need to review low frequency demand disconnection (LFDD)
• System Strength and Resilience o Natural support to the grid is significantly reduced o Short circuit levels continue to reduce o Voltage management continues to be growing challenge
SLIDE 40 http://www.ercot.com/content/meetings/rpg/keydocs/2013/1115/2013_11_15_Siemens_SynCon_Solutions_ERCOT_2.pdf
SLIDE 41
AUSTRALIA: RENEWABLE INTEGRATION IN SOUTH AUSTRALIA
SLIDE 42
FCAS PROVIDING UNITS
SLIDE 43
SA REGION INERTIA TREND
SLIDE 44
KEY MESSAGES
Importance of the Heywood Interconnector – secure and reliable operation of SA
Increasing need for changes to market arrangements or infrastructure to meet security and reliability expectations
Potential challenge to meet the FOS either during or following the loss of the Heywood Interconnector
AUFLS: Increasing probability that the emergency under frequency control schemes would not be able to manage the impact of separation
OFGS: increasing importance of having an effective OFGS scheme
SLIDE 45
AEMO APPROACH GOING FORWARD
Short-term 3-year outlook
Long-term 10-year outlook
Transparency and clarity in how AEMO intends to meet its obligations for system security and reliability
Adapt AEMO’s functions and processes to deliver ongoing power system security and reliability
To identify, rank and promote resolution where appropriate of long-term technical challenges of operating the power system to inform
the need for policy, procedural or regulatory changes.
Initially focussed on South Australia then NEM-wide focus.
Review of procedures for operational management of the power system for a range of operating conditions including system normal, credible and non-credible contingencies.
Where issues are identified, development of modified strategies within the current regulatory framework if
necessary.
Consult with industry technical experts to identify and prioritise technical challenges.
Research, modelling and analysis to confirm the
nature and timing of any power system risks.
Promotion of regulatory change with appropriate agencies where appropriate.
Clear operational strategies for the next three years with procedures in place for any identified
risks.
Prioritised list of issues, and recommendations for progressing their resolution through changes to policy, regulatory, rules, procedural,
technical or other mechanisms as appropriate.
Obj
ectiv
e A
ppro
ach
Out
com
es
SLIDE 46
Questions?
The 100% renewables report is available online: http://webarchive.nla.gov.au/gov/20140211235355/http://www.climatechange.gov.au/reducing-carbon/australian-energy-market-operator/100-cent-renewables-study-modelling-outcomes
SLIDE 47
“GREEN GAS” FOR FIRMING INTERMITTENCY
This is already build (sunk cost)
SLIDE 48
More information: • http://www.energyvalley.nl/uploads/bestanden/338c5586-2572-46e6-a760-401f7a7a8655 • www.youtube.com/watch?v=50Jgkznud9g
“GREEN GAS” FOR FIRMING INTERMITTENCY
High energy density of gas (vs hydrogen and battery storage technologies) and ability to gradually use existing storage facilities makes this attractive.
Estimated future size of storage options in Denmark