Regionalism in Asia

April 27, 2006

Regional Anatomy I Ken JIMBO

Mid-term Report

Select One from following Five Topics on ‘Regionalism’ ‘Regionalism and Regionalization in Asia (or in certain region)’ ‘Open-Regionalism’ vs. ‘Bilateral Networks’: Comparative

Analysis Rise of FTA/EPA in World Economy Economic Integration and Regionalism Security Interdependence and Regionalism Socio-Cultural Interaction and Regionalism

Essay Guidance Essay Length: 1200 words (minimum)　⇒　 academic format Essay Deadline: 31st March, 2006 Software: Microsoft Word (Attached File) To be Submitted to: kenj@sfc.keio.ac.jp

Review 1)Three Waves of Regionalism

The First Wave (1950-60s) Between small and medium States Failure in achieving economic development

The Second Wave (1980-90s) ‘Open Regionalism’ ‘Inclusive (nested)

Mechanism’ Stunted Progress (early marginalization)

The Third Wave (2000s-?) Bundle of ‘bilateral networks’ Regional endorsement of ‘ad-hoc mechanisms’

Review 2)Rise of the Third Wave of Regionalism?

Level of Cooperation/Integration

Timelines

Second Wave RegionalismSecond Wave Regionalism

Third Wave Regionalism ?Third Wave Regionalism ?

Review 3)Globalism / Regionalism / Bilateralism and the ‘Recursion’ of the Region

Economic Sphere Security SphereEconomic Sphere Security Sphere

Global FrameworkGlobal Framework 　 　 GATT / IMF UN / MultinationalGATT / IMF UN / Multinational

Mega-RegionalismMega-Regionalism APEC ARF / OSCE APEC ARF / OSCE

Regionalism Regionalism EU / ASEAN +3 EU / ASEAN EU / ASEAN +3 EU / ASEAN

Coalition Coalition Multilateral FTAs Anti-Terrorism Multilateral FTAs Anti-Terrorism

Bilateralism Bilateralism Bilateral FTAs Bilateral Alliance Bilateral FTAs Bilateral Alliance

Evolution of Regional Integration

Degree of Integration

Free Trade Area: FTA

Tariff Union

Common Market

Economic Union

State Integration

EU

MERCOSUR

NAFTA

AFTA

euro(2002)

F Affairs &Defense

C. Economic Policies

C. Market & Infra

FTA(1958- )

BENELUX Tariff U (’55)

FTA(1992- )

Free Inv. & Services

FTA(1989- )

Free Inv. & Service

C.Economic Policies

C. Tariff

Custom Union(‘86- )

ASEAN-6(’67)

ASEAN-10(’99)

+ China (2010?）

USA+Canada(’92)

+Mexico(’94)

B&A

+ P&U(’95)

EEC-6(’58)

EU-12(’86)

EU-15(’95) EU-27 ?FTAA-34 ? (2005?)

ASEAN=21% 54% 21% 62%

East Asia=40%

------ INTRA-REGIONAL TRADE SHARE (%) OUT OF TOTAL TRADE --------

Source: Kakazu + TY

Regionalism in AsiaGeneral Perspective

Cultural Diversity Language Religion

Historical Backgrounds Pre-Modern Asia (-1840?)

China-centric (tributary) regional order Modern Asia

Great power imperialism (1840-1945) Greater East Asia Co-Prosperity Sphere (1920-

1945)

Post-WWII and Asia

Decolonization and Nation Building Sovereignty and Nation Building Economic Re-construction

Cold War Fragmentation China Civil War (1947-49) Korean War (1950-53) Vietnam War (1965-74)

Post-Cold War ExperienceEurope and Asia Compared

In Europe, both the security (NATO) and economic structures (EEC→EC) created the basis for subsequent institutionalization of intra-European ties

Many of America’s Asian allies had far stronger ties across the Pacific than they had among themselves

Cold War Structure and Asia

Alliance Structure Europe: NATO Asia: Bilateral Alliances (San Francisco

System) plus SEATO and ANZUS Threat Perception

Europe: USSR + Eastern Europe Asia: USSR / China / North Korea /

North Vietnam

Warsaw PactWarsaw PactWarsaw PactWarsaw PactNATONATONATONATO

US-led Alliance System (Cold War)US-led Alliance System (Cold War)

Bilateral (Hub-Bilateral (Hub-Spokes) AlliancesSpokes) Alliances

Bilateral (Hub-Bilateral (Hub-Spokes) AlliancesSpokes) Alliances

European TheaterEuropean Theater

(Regional (Regional Approach)Approach)

European TheaterEuropean Theater

(Regional (Regional Approach)Approach)

Asian TheaterAsian Theater

(Bilateral Approach)(Bilateral Approach)

Asian TheaterAsian Theater

(Bilateral Approach)(Bilateral Approach)

Major Conflicts in Asia

Northeast Asia Divided Korea Divided China Sino-USSR Confrontation

Southeast Asia Sino-Vietnam Confrontation Sino-India Confrontation Internal Revolt (communism,

fundamentalism)

Wake of ‘Regionalization’ in Asia ‘De Facto’ Economic Integration

Japan’s Economic Success Foreign aid, trade, investment and technology transfe

‘Flying Geese’ Model (Kojima, 2001) Production Networks Fragmentation Model

Production Cycle Model (R. Vernon, 1966) Benefit of export-oriented ‘late comer’

ASEAN Integration (Political/Economic) Bali Concord / TAC AFTA / ASEAN 10 ASEAN Community (economic/security/socio-cultural)

Flying Geese Model (1)

Source: http://www.grips.ac.jp/module/prsp/FGeese.htm

Flying Geese Model (2)

Source: http://www.grips.ac.jp/module/prsp/FGeese.htm

Product Cycle Model (1)

Product Cycle Model (2)

Product Cycle Model (3)

Asia

４０９．１ ６１５．

９

３１９．１ ２０７．９

４２８．５ ２７６．７

７２．８

１９８．０

３６６．６

３６６．９

２３９．１

２７４．０

（ unit： one　 hundred　million　 dollars）

Europe

De Facto Economic Integration (1980)

（ unit： one　 hundred　million　 dollars）

２１９３．１

（８．０times）

Asia

　　　　　２１４０．９

　（５．２times）

　　１６４５．９

（２．７times）

　　１４４０．１

（４．５ times）

６４５．１

（３．１times）３１１４．

２

（７．３times）

　　１３３３．１

　　　（４．８times）７２．８

　　　４８４．６

（４．０） times

１６８４．３

（４．６times）

１９７３．１

　　（５．４times）　　１２４９．

２

　（５．２times）

De Facto Economic Integration (2000)

22.5%

39.2%

51.9%45.8%

62.5%

13.8%

0.0%

10.0%

20.0%

30.0%

40.0%

50.0%

60.0%

70.0%

日中韓 日中韓港台 ＡＳＥＡＮ＋日中韓港台

ＮＡＦＴＡ ＥＵ ＭＥＲＣＯＳＵＲ

世界の各地域経済共同体と東アジアにおける貿易の域内依存率（２００２年）

※ ASEAN ASEAN日中韓は日本・中国・韓国間の貿易に占める３カ国の割合、日中韓港台は日本・中国・韓国・香港・台湾の貿易に占める５カ国・地域の割合、 ＋日中韓港台は及び日本・中国・韓国・香港・台湾の貿易に占める前述の各国・地域の割合。

2003 Korea Customs Service HP Statistical Yearbook 2003 Edition, National Statistics of Taiwan, the（出所）日本：財務省貿易統計。中国：中国統計年鑑 年、韓国： 、台湾：Republic of China Direction of Trade Statistics。その他はＩＭＦ

ASEAN’s Regionalization Process Chronology

1967: Bangkok Declaration 1971: Zone of Peace, Freedom, and Neutrality (ZOPFAN) 1976: Treaty of Amity and Cooperation (TAC) 1976: ASEAN Concord I 1992: ASEAN Declaration on the South China Sea 1995: - Treaty on the Southeast Asia Nuclear Weapon Free Z

one 1997: ASEAN Vision 2020 2003: ASEAN Concord II

ASEAN (Bali) Concord II and ASEAN Community ASEAN Economic Community ASEAN Security Community ASEAN Socio-Cultural Community

APEC Process(Rise of Second Wave)

ARF Process(Rise of Second Wave)

Mechanism forConflict Resolution

PreventiveDiplomacy (PD)

ConfidenceBuilding (CBM)

Four Drivers of East Asian Linkages

Governments In European regionalism, the focus on national

governments is a given. Multinational governmental cooperation results in formal regional organizations.

In Asia, although governments have been key players, regional integration were not always driven by formal process.

Corporations Regional trade, investment and cross-national

production networks.

Four Drivers of East Asian Linkages (contd.)

Functional Cooperation Ad-hoc Problem-oriented Bodies

Growing Middle-class Networks Similar Life-style Common Social Security Concerns Middle Class Culture Sharing

“Standard Package” (car, TV, video, PC, cosmetics…etc)

Middle Class in China

Reference

T.J. Pempel, “Introduction: Emerging Webs of Regional Connectedness” T.J. Pempel ed., Remapping East Asia: The Construction of a Region (Cornell University Press, 2005)

Etel Solingen “East Asian Regional Institutions: Characteristics, Sources, Distinctiveness” T.J. Pempel Ed., op.cit.

Paul Evans, “Between Regionalism and Regionalization: Policy Networks and the Nascent East Asian Institutional Identity” T.J. Pempel ed., op.cit.

Edward Lincoln, East Asian Economic Regionalism (Brookings Institution Press, 2004) Peter J. Katzenstein, World of Regions: Asia and Europe in the American Imperium (C

ornell University Press, 2005) Ch.2,3,4 Kiyoshi Kojima, The 'flying geese' model of Asian economic development: origin, theor

etical extensions, and regional policy implications. Journal of Asian Economics 11, 2000, pp.375-401.

Raymond Vernon, "International Investment and International Trade in the Product Cycle." Quarterly Journal of Economics 80 (May 1966), pp.190-207.

Takashi Shiraishi, “The Third Wave: Southeast Asia and Middle-Class Formation in the Making of Region” Peter Katzenstein and Takashi Shiraishi eds., Beyond Japan: The Dynamics of East Asian Regionalism (Cornell University Press, 2006)