Transcript of Realizing the Potential of the Los Angeles Electric Vehicle Market Study authors: Dr. Jeffrey Dubin,...
- Slide 1
- Realizing the Potential of the Los Angeles Electric Vehicle
Market Study authors: Dr. Jeffrey Dubin, Ross Barney, Annamaria
Csontos, Jonathan Um and Nini Wu UCLA Anderson School of Management
Presented by Juan Matute EV Project Director, UCLA Luskin Center
for Innovation
- Slide 2
- Outline Los Angeles as a leading national EV market Who will
buy EVs? When will they buy them? Where will owners live? Planning
for nighttime charging Locating public charge in commuting
corridors and where home charging access is difficulty Challenges
and potential pitfalls Will the supply of EVs keep up with demand?
Will residents in multi-family housing be able to charge at night?
How to educate the public?
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- Los Angeles is poised to become one of the nations largest EV
markets Electric vehicle sales are projected to compose 9% of total
car sales in 2015 and 11.7% in 2020.
- Slide 4
- Consumer Survey 2,072 City of Los Angeles Residents Completed
37-question Survey Sponsored and Administered by
Polimetrix/YouGov.com Included demographic & Conjoint
questions
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- Who Wants to Buy EVs? Political Affiliation Educational
Attainment Initially: better educated, younger, more liberal Later:
All groups who consider purchasing new vehicles, especially those
living in Multifamily Housing (Note that figures do not include
effects of market constraints)
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- Constraint: Access to Charging 42% of potential non-single
family owner adopters report lack of residential EV charger would
prevent them from buying an EV 26% of potential early-adopters
currently park on the street
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- Constraint: Will EV Supply keep up with demand? Estimated US EV
supply 2011-2015 Estimated LA City EV supply constraints, 2011-2014
Projection: Los Angeles EV demand outstrips supply until 2014
- Slide 8
- Market Sizing: Bass Diffusion Model Zip-code level approach
understanding of how relative concentrations of in neighborhoods
influence purchase behavior.
- Slide 9
- Geographic Concentration of Nighttime EV Charging in 2015
(vehicles per sq-mile)
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- Geographic Concentration of Nighttime EV Charging in 2020
(vehicles per sq-mile)
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- Projected Hybrid and Electric Vehicle Sales in Los Angeles -
2000 to 2020
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- Projected Hybrid and Electric Vehicle Base in Los Angeles -
2000 to 2020
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- How our forecast compares
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- Geographic Concentration of Daytime EV Charging in 2015
(vehicles per sq- mile)
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- Geographic Concentration of Daytime EV Charging in 2020
(vehicles per sq- mile)
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- Increase in EV Sales per Household in 2015 from 50% Access to
Residential Charging
- Slide 17
- Findings EV charging will be concentrated in the daytime,
mostly in downtown and along the Wilshire corridor. Incentives and
policy options will have little effect until supply constraints on
EV sales are removed, potentially several years in the future.
Increasing access to home charging will have a substantial impact
on EV sales if implemented before EV supply constraints are
lifted.
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- Importance of at home-charging Early to Mid-Adopters are
particularly interested in incentives that facilitate home charger
installation. Expedited permitting was important to 75% of Early to
Mid- Adopters
- Slide 19
- Importance of charging access for residents of Multi-family
housing Sixty-five percent of prospective early EV adopters are
multifamily residents and renters, but these groups face major
challenges in accessing home charging. Access to public charging
options outside the home or building garage will be important for
the 25% of survey respondents who park on the street.
- Slide 20
- Communicating the benefits of EV to families Enacting and
communicating a competitive and easy-to- understand electricity
rate plan for EV recharging will also incentivize greater EV
adoption, particularly amongst Mid- Adopters. Over 70% of
Mid-Adopters consider current gas prices to be an important factor
when buying an EV compared to only 54% for Early Adopters. Greater
public awareness about EVs and EV incentives would help elevate the
perceived value of EVs, particularly amongst Mid-Adopters. Only 37%
of respondents had at least some knowledge about EVs and only 29%
were aware of available EV incentives.
- Slide 21
- Los Angeles is poised to become of the nations largest EV
market Recommendations: 1.Streamline permitting & installation
process with an actively involved utility 2.Increase charging
access in multifamily housing. 3.Increase consumer education and
marketing.
- Slide 22
- Next Steps Significant Challenges to expanding EVs into
multifamily market Need new policies to govern on-street and public
access EVSE Future Luskin Center research to address EVs in
multifamily housing, and electric vehicle car share.