Realignment: A First Look at Statewide

TrendsChief Michael Daly

Marin County ProbationKevin O’Connell,

Analyst, CPOC

Identify aggregate data elements that all 58 counties can track and submit from October 1, 2011

Focused on:◦ Movement of Post Release Community

Supervision (PRCS) population back to counties◦ Sentencing of 1170h (non3, non-non-non, local

prison) offenders Disseminate in useful formats Disseminate in a timely way

CPOC Realignment Research Priorities

Receive Data from counties

and run statistical

quality control

Send data back to

counties for quality control

Send final data report to Chiefs of Probation

Make data publicly

available via dashboards and reports

CPOC Quarterly Realignment Data Collection Process

Per 100,000 people, where are PRCS going?

Per 100,000 people, where are 1170h sentences occurring?

PRCS offenders released PRCS warrant-before appearance Active PRCS offenders Active PRCS warrant-after appearance at

probation

PRCS Measures

Bay Central North Sacramento South80%85%90%95%

100%105%110%

94%

108%

100%

92%

101%

% of PRCS Estimates

PRCS Releases as of March 2012 99% of expected PRCS cases statewide 7% of PRCS failed to appear within 72

hours

~23,000 active offenders as of March 31 4% of active PRCS cases are wanted on

warrants

Active PRCS Population Status

South

Central

Sacramento

Bay

North

0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6% 7% 8% 9% 10%

3%

4%

5%

7%

9%

% of Active Cases on Warrant

Statewide average of 4%

1170h (a) jail only sentences 1170h (b) split sentences 1170h (b) no jail sentences Active 1170 (b) offenders

1170h Measures

Oct-11 Nov-11 Dec-11 Jan-12 Feb-12 Mar-120%

50%

100%

150%

% of Monthly 1170h Estimates, Cumulative

Actual vs. Estimated 1170h Sentences• ~15,000 1170h sentences as of March 31• 34% above initial estimates

October NovemberDecember January February March0500

10001500200025003000 2484

20731790 1798

1526 1676

456 511 494 525 524 551

1170h Jail Only 1170h Split Sentence

1170h Sentences Statewide • 22% of 1170h sentences were split sentences• 29% of split sentences have started mandatory

supervision and are out of custody

PRCS Closures (6-12months)◦ How many PRCS offenders were closed

PRCS Closures (1 year)◦ How many PRCS cases were closed at 1 year by

law as they had no return to custody Recidivism

◦ Of those terminated, how many had a felony conviction during supervision

PRCS Closures after more than 18 months◦ PRCS offenders who spent more than 18 months

on local supervision

Outcome Measures

http://cpoc.org/php/realign/dashboardinfo/CPOCbrief11.pdf

http://www.cpoc.org/php/realign/dashboardinfo/dashboard.swf

Updated data from 9 months don’t show significant changes from 6months at first glance

Too early to draw systematic or county level conclusions

Data has to drive the discussion All CCP partners should submit data to the

conversation Evidence based programming and practices

needs to be the benchmark

In Conclusion