Post on 18-Apr-2018
Rapidly Growing Cities and their
impact on Solid Waste Management
Professor David C Wilson
Independent Waste & Resource Management Consultant
Imperial College London
ISWA Presidential Advisory Committee,
7-8 June 2013, Vienna
My brief for this presentation
1. Population development
2. Rural - urban migration
3. Regional changes
4. Forecasting future waste generation
PART 2: Implications for the waste sector
5. Current status/ recent progress of
SWM in developing countries
6. Future priorities
PART 1: Forecasting future waste quantities
Estimated and projected world population (billions, 1950-2100)
Source: United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division
(2011): World Population Prospects: The 2010 Revision. New York
Estimated and projected world population
by region (medium variant, billions, 1950-2100)
Source: United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division
(2011): World Population Prospects: The 2010 Revision. New York
Distribution
of world
population
(medium
variant)
Source: United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division
(2011): World Population Prospects: The 2010 Revision. New York
Population change by region 2010-2100)
Source: United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division
(2011): World Population Prospects: The 2010 Revision. New York
Population of Europe and Africa
Source: United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division
(2011): World Population Prospects: The 2010 Revision. New York
Note:
this medium
variant
projection
assumes a
significant fall
in fertility rates
in Africa
Population also migrating to cities
Source: United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division:
World Urbanization Prospects, the 2011 Revision. New York, 2012
N
Urban growth mainly in Asia and Africa
Source: United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division:
World Urbanization Prospects, the 2011 Revision. New York, 2012
% increase projected
Distribution of world urban population
Source: United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division:
World Urbanization Prospects, the 2011 Revision. New York, 2012
Percentage of urban population and
location of large cities, 1960
Source: United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division:
World Urbanization Prospects, the 2011 Revision. New York, 2012
2 Megacities
Percentage of urban population and
location of large cities, 1980
Source: United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division:
World Urbanization Prospects, the 2011 Revision. New York, 2012
4 Megacities
Percentage of urban population and
location of large cities, 2011
Source: United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division:
World Urbanization Prospects, the 2011 Revision. New York, 2012
22 Megacities
Percentage of urban population and
location of large cities, 2025
Source: United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division:
World Urbanization Prospects, the 2011 Revision. New York, 2012
34 Megacities
Total population by city size class (millions)
Source: United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division:
World Urbanization Prospects, the 2011 Revision. New York, 2012
The World’s largest 50 cities: 2010 - 2100 Region 2010 2025 2050 2075 2100
Europe 4 2 0
North America 6 3 1
Japan 2 2 1
Latin America 9 6 4
Asis (excluding Japan) 23 23 16
Middle East –
North Africa 4 5 3
Sub-Saharan Africa 2 9 25
Range of populations
(million) 6-36 7-36 16-42 23-58 17-88
Numbers of megacities 21 27 50 70 83
Source: current draft paper by Dan Hoornweg and Perinaz Bhada-Tata:
‘Solid waste in the World’s 100 largest cities in the 20th century
Waste per capita increases with income level
High-income
countries: • Waste per capita
doubled since 1980
• Perform worst
Source: Wilson, D.C., Rodic L., Scheinberg, A., Velis, C.A. and Alabaster, G. (2012).
Comparative analysis of solid waste management in 20 cities.
Waste Management & Research, 30, 237-254.
Predicted decreases in waste generation
per capita at high levels of GNI/Capita
Source: current draft paper by Dan Hoornweg and Perinaz Bhada-Tata:
‘Solid waste in the World’s 100 largest cities in the 20th century
Waste Generation by Region (Current)
1.3 billion tonnes/yr MSW
OECD generates ~ 50% world’s waste – “outlier”
China produces 70% of EAP region waste
Source: Dan Hoornweg:
data from ‘What a Waste’,
2012, World Bank
Waste Generation by Region (now & 2025)
2.2 billion tonnes/yr MSW (69% increase)
Big growth in EAP, SAR, AFR; OECD not outlier
* Bubble size proportional to total urban population
Source: Dan Hoornweg:
data from ‘What a Waste’,
2012, World Bank
Total solid
waste quantities
and composition by income level,
now and 2025
Source: ‘What a Waste’, 2012, World Bank
Waste
composition Affected by:
• Geography: building materials, ash content (HH heating), green waste.
• Climate: Ulan Bator, Mongolia ash is 60% of the MSW in winter, 20% in summer.
• Income: Wealthier nations have more complex waste, lower organic content
• Culture: differences in food consumed (eg, packaged or fresh), electronic equipment used changes nature of waste
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Current 2025 Current 2025 Current 2025 Current 2025
Low income Lower Middle
income
Upper Middle
income
High income
Waste composition
Others
Metal
Glass
Plastic
Paper
Organic
Source: ‘What a Waste’, 2012, World Bank
CURRENT AND FUTURE PRIORITIES
FOR SWM AROUND THE WORLD
Photo credits: © Jeroen Ijgosse; David C Wilson;, Mansoor Ali
CBO collection in
Ouagadougou, Burkina
Faso
Modern landfill in
Hong Kong
Selling recycled bottles,
Dhaka
Simplified ISWM analytical framework
Physical
Public health –
Collection
Inclusivity – User and
Provider
Financial
Sustainability
3Rs – Reduce,
Reuse, Recycle
Sound
Institutions
& Pro-active
Policies
Governance Environment
– Disposal
© David Wilson, Ljiljana Rodic, Costas Velis
Concept: Scheinberg A, Wilson D.C.
and Rodic L. (2010). Solid Waste Management
in the World’s Cities. Earthscan for UN-Habitat
Waste Management Drivers in what is
now the developed world: 1020-2020
1020 1850 1970 1990 2000
Resource
value
Public Health
- collection
Climate change
Environment
- disposal
© DCW
2010
Resource
management
Rediscover
recycling
2020
Recent drivers
in the ‘North’
Key Drivers in the developing world
1020 1850 1970 1990 2000
Resource
value
Public Health
- collection
Environment
- disposal
© DCW
2010 2020
1st driver: Public Health – Focus on Collection
Waste blocking
a storm drain.
Bamako, Mali
Burning uncollected waste, Venezuela
Direct: Increased incidence of sickness among children living in households without a waste collection service:
Dengue fever clean-up campaign, Quezon City Photo credits clockwise from top left: © Jeroen Ijgosse; Erica Trauba; SWAPP
Data from Demographic and Health surveys:
o Diarrhoea – rate x 2 or more
o Acute respiratory infections – rate x 6
Indirect: water-
borne disease via
blocked drains and
flooding
Public health – collection coverage
GNI per capita (000' $)
Colle
ction /
sw
eepin
g c
overa
ge (
%)
Income level
High
Upper-middle
Lower-middle
Low
1
500
700
900
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
30000
50000
0%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
World Bank website: 30-60% in low & middle income countries
Wilson, D.C., Rodic L.,
Scheinberg, A., Velis, C.A.
and Alabaster, G. (2012).
Comparative analysis of
solid waste management in
20 cities.
Waste Management &
Research, 30, 237-254.
2nd driver:
Environment –
Focus on
phasing out
open dumps
Top: On Nooch,
Bangkok, 1983
Bottom: Jam Chakro,
Karachi, 2001
Photos: David C Wilson;
Jonathan Rouse
Environmental control – controlled disposal
Income Level State of the art
disposal
Simple
controlled
disposal
Uncontrolled
Disposal
High 100% 0% 0%
Upper-middle 75% 20% 5%
Lower-middle 61% 32% 7%
Low 29% 24% 47%
Substantial progress has been made, particularly in middle-income countries
Data source: Scheinberg A, Wilson D.C. and Rodic L. (2010). Solid Waste
Management in the World’s Cities. Published for UN-Habitat by Earthscan, London
1990s baseline: open dumping still dominant
in middle and low-income countries
3rd Driver - Resource value – 3Rs
Recycling rates - formal vs informal
Income
Level
Average
%
Formal
%
Informal
%
High 54 54 0
Upper-
middle 15 1 15
Lower-
middle 27 11 16
Low 27 1 26
Data source: Scheinberg A, Wilson D.C. and Rodic L. (2010).
Solid Waste Management in the World’s Cities.
Published for UN-Habitat by Earthscan, London
Major opportunity for win-win solutions through
partnership with the informal recycling sector
• Build recycling rates
• Move towards zero waste
• Improve livelihoods
• Improve working
conditions
• Save the city money
Itinerant waste buyer in Brazil
Sorting recycled plastics in Delhi
Photo credits: © Jeroen Ijgosse,
Enrico Fabian
A. Solid Waste
Management
interface
B. Materials &
value chain
interface
C. Social interface
O. Organisation &
empowerment
(underpinning
basis)
• Financial
sustainability
• Access to waste
• Separate waste
at source
Framework for selecting appropriate
interventions for informal sector integration
http://wmr.sagepub.com/content/30/9_suppl.
C Velis, DC Wilson et al. An analytical framework
and tool (‘InteRa’) for
integrating the informal
recycling sector in waste
and resource management
systems in developing
countries. Waste
Management & Research
September 2012 30: 43-66
Rapid waste growth is inevitable if waste per
capita tracks economic growth
•Recycling is an easy
first option to reduce
waste for disposal
•Waste prevention is
also critical
•Waste prevention has
come onto agenda in
high-income countries
•Requires innovation in
developing countries
Source: Wilson, D.C., Rodic L., Scheinberg, A., Velis, C.A. and Alabaster, G. (2012).
Comparative analysis of solid waste management in 20 cities.
Waste Management & Research, 30, 237-254.
My only slide on waste prevention
in developing countries … Unsold food from shops, which would otherwise be discarded as waste, being sorted prior to distribution to some 15 000 people registered with
the social inclusion food bank in Belo Horizonte. Brazil
© SLU
Governance factors also important
Physical
Public health –
Collection
Inclusivity – User and
Provider
Financial
Sustainability
3Rs – Reduce,
Reuse, Recycle
Sound
Institutions
& Pro-active
Policies
Governance Environment
– Disposal
© David Wilson, Ljiljana Rodic, Costas Velis
Concept: Scheinberg A, Wilson D.C.
and Rodic L. (2010). Solid Waste Management
in the World’s Cities. Earthscan for UN-Habitat
Good governance – partnering with ALL
stakeholders in an ISWM system
Municipality
Service users
State Agencies
Neighbouring municipalities
Private service
providers
Informal sector
Producer responsibility organisations
NGOs / CBOs
Development partners
Inclusivity: Focus in Particular on Users &
Service Providers
Municipality
Service users
State Agencies
Neighbouring municipalities
Private service
providers
Informal sector
Producer responsibility organisations
NGOs / CBOs
Development partners
Achieving user inclusivity
Citizens Committee
At Barangay level in
Quezon City, Philippines
Participative planning
Catia La Mar, Venezuela
Photos: SWAPP; Jeroen IJgosse
Collection
Photo credits clockwise from top left: © WASTE; Erica Trauba; Justin Lang, Zero Waste South Australia; Curepipe Municipality; Ljiljana Rodic
Some examples
of diversity in
service
provision
Door-to-door informal collector, India
Curepipe, Mauritius Adelaide, Australia Bicycle cart delivering to small transfer station in Kunming
CBO collection in Bamako, Mali
Modernisation does not necessarily mean motorisation
Financial sustainability - affordability
Income Level City SW
budget per
capita
City SW budget per capita
as % of
GDP per capita
range average
High $75 0.03 - 0.40% 0.17%
Upper-middle $33 0.14 - 1.19% 0.59%
Lower-middle $10 0.40 - 1.22% 0.69%
Low* $1.4 0.14 – 0.52% 0.32%
* Data only available for 3 of the 6 low-income cities (for 16 out of 20 cities in total)
Data source: Scheinberg A, Wilson D.C. and Rodic L. (2010). Solid Waste Management
in the World’s Cities. Published for UN-Habitat by Earthscan, London
Affordability is a key issue in the lower income countries
• Fees < 1-2% of household income
People are willing to pay –
when they can see the benefits
Raising awareness
amongst citizens to
pay for waste
collection goes
hand in hand with
collection service
improvement
Maputo,
Mozambique
Photo: Joachim Stretz
- which is often for primary collection,
to improve the living conditions of their children
Sound Institutions, Proactive Policies Adequacy of national
SWM framework
1. Legislation and regulations
2. Strategy/policy
3. Guidelines and
implementation procedures
4. National institution
responsible for SWM policy
5. Regulatory control
6. Extended producer
responsibility
Degree of local
institutional coherence
1. Organisational structure
2. Institutional capacity
3. City-wide strategy and plan
4. Availability and quality of
SWM data
5. Management, control and
supervision of service delivery
6. Inter-municipal co-operation
Source: D.C. Wilson et al. Benchmark Indicators for Integrated & Sustainable
Waste Management (ISWM). Paper to ISWA World Congress, 2013
REFLECTIONS – IN SUMMARY
Photo credits: © City of Rotterdam; Kossara Bozhilova-Kisheva; Bhushan Tuladhar
A diversity of approaches to separate collection for recycling
Kerbside sort in Rotterdam Bring bins in Varna,
Bulgaria
Exchanging recyclables for
onions Siddhipur, Nepal
69% increase in waste generation by 2025 - and the shifting regional focus of SWM challenges
‘Triple whammy’:
1. Rapidly growing populations
2. Rural- urban migration
3. Waste per capita increases with economic growth
* Bubble size proportional to total urban population
Source: Dan Hoornweg:
data from ‘What a Waste’,
2012, World Bank
SWM priorities are defined by
the physical requirements …
• Extend collection
coverage
• Reduce waste
generation
• Build recycling rates
• Eliminate open
dumping
• Appropriate treatment DCW’s version of the waste hierarchy
© DCW
Key questions for assessing when treatment is
appropriate
• Waste-to-energy
incinerators
– Will our waste burn
unsupported?
– Does it compete with
recycling for paper, plastics?
– Can we afford the gate fee?
– Does the environmental
regulator have the powers &
institutional capacity to
control and monitor the gas
cleaning?
Baoan incinerator in Shenzhen, China
Photo credit: Timothy O'Rourke for The New York Times
• Novel technology • Is it proven?
• Beware the magic solution
• If it seems too good to be
true – then it probably is!
.. but successful implementation requires
good governance & partnerships
• Partnerships
underpin all the
Habitat governance
factors
• Municipalities
cannot solve the
SWM problem
alone
Municipality
Service users
State Agencies
Neighbouring municipalities
Private service
providers
Informal sector
Producers
NGOs / CBOs
Development partners
Thank you for
listening!
www.davidcwilson.com waste@davidcwilson.com
d.c.wilson@imperial.ac.uk