Stonybrook UniversityDEPARTMENT OF TECHNOLOGY

AND SOCIETY

EST 581 - Methods of Socio-Technological Decision Making

Professor Fred Phillips

Internet essentials

• Course Web Site• www.generalinformatics.com/

EST581/EST581DecisionMaking.html or... tinyurl.com/EST581

• My email: fred.phillips@stonybrook.edu

• My office phone: 626 1300

Addressed in EST581• How does the human mind - “the most

complicated object in the known universe*” - choose what to do?

• How do many minds make collective decisions?

• What analytic tools enable better decisions? What are their limitations?

• How to combine analytic, psychological, and social knowledge to make better decisions?

* Jonah Lerner, How We Decide, 2009.

Opening classes

• Ice breakers• Form teams• Discussion of global warming• Lecture and further discussion• Coca-Cola case• Making sure everyone has textbook &

software!• Making sure I know your email addresses.

Ice Breakers

• “Bananas”• Birth order• Choices

– http://www.utne.com/2003-05-01/too-many-choices.aspx

– http://consciousmanager.blogspot.com/2008/01/double-trouble-toil-strife-too-many.html

– Do you have too many choices? How do you cope? Discuss for 5 minutes with team.

From The New Birth Order Book, p.15

• "First born: perfectionist, conscientious, list maker, well- organized, hard driving, natural leader, critical, serious, scholarly, logical. Doesn't like surprises; loves computers. Often compliant: has difficulty saying No."

• "Middle Child: mediator, compromising, diplomatic, avoids conflict, independent, loyal to peers, many friends, secretive, unspoiled, has reasonable expectations."

• "Youngest Child: manipulative, charming, blames others, attention seeker, tenacious, people person, natural salesperson, precocious, engaging, affectionate, loves surprises."

• "Only Child: little adult by age seven; very thorough and deliberate; high achiever; self-motivated; fearful; cautious; voracious reader; black and white thinker; uses "very" and "extremely" a lot; can't bear to fail; has very high expecta-tions for self; more comfortable with people who are older or younger."

Global Warming

• What is the “problem” to be solved?• Who is affected?• What are the obstacles to finding a

“solution”?• What would be the obstacles to

implementing a “solution”?• Discuss for 10 minutes with team and

report back.

What kinds of decisions do YOU wish to make?

• Economically advantageous? Profitable?• Satisfying diverse constituents?• Wise?• Decisions that make you look good?• That challenge your employees to grow?• Do you understand that a decision probably

cannot be all of those?• Team discussion 10 minutes.

Why are decisions hard?

• Complexity• Inherent uncertainty• Contradictory goals• Subject to more than one perspective

– Including different views of what the problem is.

• “Bounded rationality.”• Often requires both “hard” (mathematical) and

“soft” (psychological and political) reasoning.

Kinds of errors (Fisher, Tukey, Raiffa, Mitroff)

Example: testing whether a new drug is better than an old one in treating headaches

• Type 1 error: wrongly conclude that the new drug is better.– Decision: Treat patients with new drug– Consequences:

• Type 2 error: wrongly conclude that the old drug is better.– Decision: Treat patients with old drug– Consequences:

Errors of Type 3 and 4

• Type 3 error: “[unintentionally] solving the wrong problem precisely” – Maybe more people would be helped by developing a

cheaper, generic version of the old drug.

• Type 4 error: Intentionally misleading others about what the true problem is. Examples:– US invasion of Iraq– High unemployment among native-born Americans

means US must “solve the immigration problem.”

Six things that are not true1. Textbook exercises are problems.2. Problems have only one best solution.3. All problems can be clearly specified.4. Complex problems can always be ‘analyzed’

into simpler, solvable sub-problems.5. Problems don’t change while you are trying

to solve them.6. You only need tools from one discipline to

solve a problem “in that area.” (For example, you need only to know chemistry to solve a chemistry problem.) From Mitroff

Can you distinguish these from each other?

• Problem• Mess• Well-defined problem

• Dilemma• Wicked problem• Ill-defined problem

Here are definitions• Exercise: A calculation, with a pre-determined

solution, for which no external considerations are needed. There is usually only one correct answer.

• Problem: A problem exists when it is not clear what ethical means may achieve a desired set of presumably ethical ends. The problem is to find or to create ethical means to achieve a desired set of ethical ends.

• Dilemma: A decision situation presenting only two possible solutions. Usually involves ethical or moral trade-offs.

More definitions• Well-structured problem: a problem for which the

means and the ends are well known. – One's ethical stance and values are also well known and

accepted by a "significant body" of stakeholders. – The problem is then to find which of the means are the most

efficient in attaining the desired ends.

• Ill-structured problem: a problem for which the means and/or ends are unknown and/or for which there exists significant disagreement over what means should be employed to achieve what ends. – Stakeholders’ ethical stance and values are in doubt and/or not

shared. – The problem is to determine the problem, i.e., how to formulate

it.

Still more definitions

• Mess: a system of problems such no single problem exists apart from the entire mess of which it is a part.

• Wicked problem: A problem for which there appears no satisfactory way of determining an appropriate set of means or ends that would obtain sufficient agreement among a diverse set of stakeholders. – That is, no currently known discipline, profession,

or body of knowledge is sufficient to define the "wickedly complex" nature of the problem.

Do you remember (from the Global Operations Management course)

this hierarchy of strategic planning?

• Mission

• Goals

• Objectives

• Programs

• Operating decisions

And the ‘ingredients’ that feed it?

• Vision

• Values

• SWOT

Coca-Cola case

• Team case analysis– 1/2 hour for teams to read and analyze.– 3 minutes oral summary from each team.

• What should Coke-Belgium have done?

In our weekly Internet interaction, we will use…

• Pencasts– We’ll watch one,

http://www.livescribe.com/cgi-bin/WebObjects/LDApp.woa/wa/MLSOverviewPage?sid=pXV5CRr4ZGph

• Wimba

• And maybe Blackboard.

And something for later:

Ending items

• Prospects of everyone getting textbook & software.

• Collecting your email addresses.