PRIME MINISTRY REPUBLIC OF TURKEY TURKISH STATISTICAL INSTITUTE TurkStat

NATIONAL ACCOUNTS

IN TURKEY

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PRIME MINISTRY REPUBLIC OF TURKEY TURKISH STATISTICAL INSTITUTE TurkStat

Contents

1-GDP Estimates

2-Revisions

3-Major Improvements

4-SNA Revision

5- Implementation process in Turkey

6- Main changes and actions to be taken

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PRIME MINISTRY REPUBLIC OF TURKEY TURKISH STATISTICAL INSTITUTE TurkStat

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GDP Estimates

• Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in Turkey had been started to calculate after the foundation of Central Statistical Office.

• Calculation of GDP are based on quarterly and annual data compiled by short term and annual surveys conducted by TurkStat.

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PRIME MINISTRY REPUBLIC OF TURKEY TURKISH STATISTICAL INSTITUTE TurkStat

Gross Domestic Product is estimated by production, expenditure and income approaches.

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GDP Estimates

The system consists of the following elements:

• Value added by kind of economic activity at current and constant prices,

• Expenditure on GDP at current and constant prices,

• GDP by cost components at current

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PRIME MINISTRY REPUBLIC OF TURKEY TURKISH STATISTICAL INSTITUTE TurkStat

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Revisions

• Definitions, classifications and other methodological improvements,

• Improvements in data sources,

• Improvements in data collection.

  Historical revisions of Turkish National Accounts

• Base Year 1948 (Published in 1950)

• Base Year 1968 (Published in 1972)

• Base Year 1987 (Published in 1993)

• Base Year 1998 (Published in 2008)

 

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PRIME MINISTRY REPUBLIC OF TURKEY TURKISH STATISTICAL INSTITUTE TurkStat

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Major Improvements

• Improvements to the commodity flow system

– The identification of goods used in intermediate consumption, investment and household consumption was improved.

• Improvements in the methodology

– Some changes to concepts and definitions and calculating value added at basic prices were introduced.

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Major Improvements• Improved Supply and Use tables for 2002, basis for benchmark

year– The 2002 Supply-Use and Input-Output Tables were the first tables

compiled by the concepts, definitions and classifications of the ESA-95

• Financial Services

– Measurement of FISIM according to ESA 95 was applied.

– A portion of FISIM was allocated to final consumption.

– A portion of FISIM was allocated to intermediate consumption in GDP

by production approach.

– Measurement of Central Bank output was developed

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PRIME MINISTRY REPUBLIC OF TURKEY TURKISH STATISTICAL INSTITUTE TurkStat

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Major Improvements

• Adoption of chain-linking method in constant price estimation

– Chain-linking method in constant price estimation was adopted

– Unit value indices at constant price estimation of exports/imports of goods were applied.

• Measurement at basic prices (GDP by Production Approach)– The VAT (and other taxes and subsidies on products) are now

shown as a separate component of GDP.

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PRIME MINISTRY REPUBLIC OF TURKEY TURKISH STATISTICAL INSTITUTE TurkStat

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Major Improvements

• Classification systems based on ESA 95 and other international standards

– New classification of industries (NACE) and private household consumption (COICOP) are used.

– Reclassification of some components of GDP by industries is used.

• Final Consumption Expenditure of Households is given in detail.

• Estimates for the non-observed economy were recalculated using more detailed data.

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PRIME MINISTRY REPUBLIC OF TURKEY TURKISH STATISTICAL INSTITUTE TurkStat

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SNA Revision

• The SNA is a statistical framework that details a set of macroeconomic accounts.

• SNA-2008 serves as an update to The System of National Accounts, 1993 (SNA-93).

• Revision at international level was followed by the revision at European level (ESA-1995 to ESA-2010).

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PRIME MINISTRY REPUBLIC OF TURKEY TURKISH STATISTICAL INSTITUTE TurkStat

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SNA Revision

The aims of the revision

• To update of the system to better meet the economic development

• Smooth transition from previous system with not introducing fundamental and extensive changes

• Harmonization with related handbooks

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PRIME MINISTRY REPUBLIC OF TURKEY TURKISH STATISTICAL INSTITUTE TurkStat

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Implementation process in Turkey

• Questionnaires will be changed and developed according to the requirements for implementation,

• To achieve the objectives in the implementation of new SNA, TURKSTAT will pursue a general policy,

• A detailed description of sources and methods of compilation GDP will be prepared,

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PRIME MINISTRY REPUBLIC OF TURKEY TURKISH STATISTICAL INSTITUTE TurkStat

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Implementation process in Turkey

• Institutional sector accounts will be prepared,

• Changeover to the new classifications for annual and quarterly data will be realized,

• Backcasting of annual and quarterly GDP series will be realized,

• Non-observed economy estimates will be improved,

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PRIME MINISTRY REPUBLIC OF TURKEY TURKISH STATISTICAL INSTITUTE TurkStat

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Implementation process in Turkey

• Quarterly sector accounts will be developed,

• SUT and IOT tables will be compiled more frequently,

• National accounts database will be developed,

• Close cooperation with stakeholders will be improved,

• Number of trainings will be increased,

• Some projects have been proposed to Eurostat.

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Main changes and actions to be taken

The main the main changes in SNA-08 with respect to SNA-93 can be classified in 5 sections as

1. Assets

2. Financial sector

3. Globalization

4. General government and public sector

5. Informal sector

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Main changes and actions to be taken

Assets

• The changes by treatment of natural resources and licenses and leases will be studied.

• Expenditures for weapon systems treated as capital formation and assets will be investigated but is difficult to implement in short or medium term.

• The concept of capital services is being investigated

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Main changes and actions to be taken

Financial Sector

• Changes in treatment of financial derivatives and non-performing loans is being investigated;

• Refined method of measurement of FISIM is being studied.

Globalization

• Clearly defined guidelines for the treatment of companies and units operating in more countries is being investigated;

• Treatment of remittances from the movements of persons abroad is being studied;

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Main changes and actions to be taken

Globalization

• Recording according to principle of change in ownership of goods will be investigated. The main issues are:

– Difficulty in obtaining source data

– Difficulty in distinguishing goods for processing from other goods in external trade

– Treatment in supply and use table

• Recording of goods for processing and merchanting will be changed. There are some issues raised, including:

– Lack of appropriate source data

– Difficulty with the conceptual notion of negative export

– Difficulty with coordination of balance of payment areas

 

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Main changes and actions to be taken

General Government and Public Sector

• Additionally defined and clarified numerous principles due to changes of operations and in accounting standards are being investigated;

 

• Delineation of general government and public sector from other sectors will be applied;

 

Informal Sector

• Informal sector and non-observed economy estimates will be improved

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Main changes and actions to be taken

• SNA-08 (ESA-2010) will be implemented in a medium or long term in TurkStat.

• TurkStat plans to implement these changes and publish data in 2015. As a result of:– Resource constraints

– Data limitations

– Methodological constraints

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Thank you...

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