Post on 02-Mar-2021
Presentation 2.1: Review of global bioenergy scenarios Jack N. Saddler Position: Professor & Dean Organization/Company: University of British Columbia, Faculty of Forestry E-mail: jack.saddler@ubc.ca Abstract Our team at the University of British Columbia has reviewed a number of existing studies of global forest biomass potential, particularly focused on industrial fibre supply. These studies, including a number of FAO publications, were used as the basis for an estimate of global industrial fibre supply in 2010 and 2050. Using standard heating values for wood, it can be estimated that fibre surplus to industrial needs might supply between 35 and 120 EJ of energy in 2050. In the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s Special Report on Emission Scenarios, the models used anticipated bioenergy inputs of between 22 and 204 EJ in 2050. There is a potential for bioenergy demand to exceed potential surplus measurements in all but the most optimistic scenarios. The FAO and partner institutions should undertake a new ‘Fibre Supply Analysis’ that will take fuelwood and emerging bioenergy options into account.
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Forest Products Biotechnology at UBC
Review of global bioenergy scenarios
W.E. Mabee, J.N. SaddlerForest Products Biotechnology, Department of Wood Science
Faculty of Forestry, University of British Columbia4043-2424 Main Mall, Vancouver, BC, Canada V6T 1Z4
warren.mabee@ubc.ca
International Seminar on Energy and the Forest Products IndustryRome, Italy: October 30 2006
Forest Products Biotechnology at UBC
Outline1. Drivers for bioenergy development2. Global fibre supply and demand3. Estimates of fibre surplus or deficits4. Estimates of bioenergy demand5. Summary & Recommendations
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Looking back and forward…17
00
1740
1780
1820
1860
1900
1920
1940
1960
1980
2000
2020
2040
2060
2080
2100
Hydrocarboneconomy1800-2050
Industrial revolution
Carbohydrateeconomy1990-21??
Biomass & renewables
Oil & GasCoal
Carbohydrateeconomy
??-1800
Agricultural-based
log (primary energy use) by category
Forest Products Biotechnology at UBC
Oil Prices and World Events
$0
$10
$20
$30
$40
$50
$60
$70
$80
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
Kyoto
Protocol10 Dec 1997
Y2K 9-11 Venezuala
Oil StrikeDec 2002
- Feb 2003 Iraq War20 Mar 2003 >
(US$/barrel West Texas Crude Oil)
Hurricane Katrina29 Aug 2005
Sources: (1) WorldOil.Com. 2004,2005, 2006.
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Gasoline PricesApril 2006
$0.00 $0.25 $0.50 $0.75 $1.00 $1.25 $1.50 $1.75 $2.00
VenezuelaIndonesia
Saudi ArabiaRussiaChina
GuatemalaArgentina
MexicoJamaica
GhanaUnited StatesSouth Africa
CanadaBrazil
EcuadorIndia
AustraliaLithuania
FinlandJapanPoland
South KoreaFrance
ItalyGermany
BritainNorwayTurkey
Base Price Tax
$CDN/Litre, regular octane fuel
Turkey: ~$2.00 CDN/litre(~$6.70 US/gal.)
Venezuela: ~$0.17 CDN/litre(~$0.60 US/gal.)
Forest Products Biotechnology at UBC
Oil for Transportation
0%
50%
100%
150%
200%
250%
300%
1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005
(% Oil usage by sector)
Transportation
Other Sectors
250% of 1950 usage
Source: (1) EIA. 2005. Annual Energy Review. US oil demand by end-use sector. http://www.eia.doe.gov/pub/oil_gas/petroleum/analysis_publications/oil_market_basics/Dem_image_US_cons_sector.htm
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Mainland China Auto UseVehicle Sales, 1998-2010
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
1419
98
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
Trucks and commercial vehicles
Passenger vehicles
(000,000 cars/a)
Historic data ◄ ► Forecasts
Sources: (1) Crain Communications, Automotive News, March 15, 2004; (2) South China Morning Post, Wednesday, June 23, 2004, p. B4. (3) Ward's World Motor Vehicle Data, 2005; (4) Shanghai Consular Region
Report, East China Automotive Aftermarket, 2005; (5) China National Automotive Industry Consulting & Developing Corporation, 2006
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Outline1. Drivers for bioenergy development2. Global fibre supply and demand3. Estimates of fibre surplus or deficits4. Estimates of bioenergy demand5. Summary & Recommendations
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GFPM (1997)Consumption/production-oriented modelNational and regional analysis of trendsGlobal amalgamation of figures
3 Scenarios:1. Low production2. ‘Average’ production3. High production
Forest Products Biotechnology at UBC
Fibre Supply: GFPM 1994, 2010
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1994
2010
1994
2010
1994
2010
1994
2010
1994
2010
1994
2010
1994
2010
Scenario 3
Scenario 2
Scenario 1
Roundwood supply
Africa Asia Oceania Europe Former USSR
NorthAmerica
LatinAmerica
Expected roundwood supply, million m 3
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GFSM (1998)Supply-oriented modelReview of all existing studies at national/subnational levelsRegional/global amalgamation
3 ‘Futures’1. ‘Business-as-usual’2. Increased development3. Conservative or ‘green’
development
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Fibre Supply: GFSM 1996, 2010, 2050
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
2010
2010
2010
2010
2010
2010
2010
Future 3
Future 2
Future 1
Plantations
Semi-Natural forests
Natural forests
Africa Asia Oceania Europe Former USSR
NorthAmerica
LatinAmerica
Expected industrial fibre supply, million m 3
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Other studies to dateMultiple IIASA reports and models (usually regional, sometimes global)
FAO Asia-Pacific Forestry Sector Outlook Study (1997)FAO Forestry Outlook Study for Africa (2003)FAO Trends and outlook in Latin America (2004)
UNEP Forests in Flux report
IEA Bioenergy – Global bio-energy potentials to 2050 (Smeets, Faaij et al. 2004)
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Outline1. Drivers for bioenergy development2. Global fibre supply and demand3. Estimates of fibre surplus or deficits4. Estimates of bioenergy demand5. Summary & Recommendations
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Our predictionsThree future scenarios of global forest fibre supply and global forest products demand
‘Low’ scenario - increased economic competitiveness and decrease in forest investment
‘Medium’ scenario - ‘business as usual’ case
‘High’ scenario - ‘green’ requirements push industrial plantations
Forest Products Biotechnology at UBC
Predicted Fibre Supply/Demand
-4000
-2000
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
LOW
MED
IUM
HIG
H
LOW
MED
IUM
HIG
H
Afforestation
Industrial Roundwood
Industrial Plantations
Forests
2010 2050
Expected industrial fibre, million m 3
SUPPLY
CONSUMPTION
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Predicted Fibre Surplus
-4000
-2000
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
LOW
MED
IUM
HIG
H
LOW
MED
IUM
HIG
H
Surplus Afforestation
Surplus
2010 2050
Expected industrial fibre, million m 3
SURPLUS
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Predicted Fibre Surplus
-4000
-2000
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
LOW
MED
IUM
HIG
H
LOW
MED
IUM
HIG
H
Surplus Afforestation
Surplus
2010 2050
Expected industrial fibre, million m 3
SURPLUS
BUT:Estimated fuelwood consumption equals
industrial roundwood consumption
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Predicted Fibre Surplus
-4000
-2000
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
LOW
MED
IUM
HIG
H
LOW
MED
IUM
HIG
H
Surplus Afforestation
Surplus
2010 2050
Expected industrial fibre, million m 3
SURPLUS
Some of this (25-50%) may be sourcedby non-industrial forests and trees outside forests
(From the Asia-Pacific Forestry Sector Outlook Study)
Forest Products Biotechnology at UBC
Predicted Fibre Surplus
-4000
-2000
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
LOW
MED
IUM
HIG
H
LOW
MED
IUM
HIG
H
Surplus Afforestation
Surplus
2010 2050
Expected industrial fibre, million m 3
SURPLUS
The rest will come from industrial forests
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Corrected Fibre Surplus/Deficit
-4000
-2000
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
LOW
MED
IUM
HIG
H
LOW
MED
IUM
HIG
H
Fuelwood
Surplus Afforestation
Surplus
Deficit
2010 2050
Expected industrial fibre, million m 3
INDUSTRIAL SURPLUS
FUELWOOD CONSUMPTION
Scenario: 75% Fuelwood Demand from Industrial Forests
Forest Products Biotechnology at UBC
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0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2005: 7 million ha red attack
2005: 15 million ha 'spread over' (green, red, grey)
million ha
Cumulative impacts - area
Den
mar
k5
mill
ion
ha
Port
ugal
10 m
illio
n ha
Sources: 1) Council of Forest Industries 2005.
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New wood pellet capacity4 new wood pellet plants, to use 10.5 million m3 of wood over 10 years
4.7 million m3 increase in annual allowable cut for bioenergy
~23% increase in the AAC for the Prince George & Quesnel regions alone
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Potential bioenergy supplyHeating value of wood: 15 GJ/t (20% moisture)
18-22 GJ/t (BDT)
Wood energy potential (surplus industrial fibre):– 2010: 5.7 to 33.0 EJ – 2050: 13.3 to 119.8 EJ
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Outline1. Drivers for bioenergy development2. Global fibre supply and demand3. Estimates of fibre surplus or deficits4. Estimates of bioenergy demand5. Summary & Recommendations
Forest Products Biotechnology at UBC
Modelling future biofuel useModel ran globally for GHG emissions
Used IPCC marker and illustrative scenarios
Used predictions of biomass energy use that reflected technological and social changes
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IPCC Scenarios 1. A1 Scenarios – rapid and successful development
A1T – new technologies enable economic dev.A1FI – fossil intensive futureA1B – balanced approach with new tech, fossil fuels
2. A2 Scenario – lower trade, reduced tech change
3. B1 Scenario – sustainable development, green goals
4. B2 Scenario – neutral approach following current trends
Forest Products Biotechnology at UBC
Global Energy Demand, IPCC
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100
Predicted Energy Demand (EJ)
~2,300 EJ (A1FI)
~2,200 EJ (A1B)
~1,700 EJ (A2)
~1,300 EJ (A1T, B2)
~500 EJ (B1)
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Global Bioenergy Demand, IPCC
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100
Predicted Energy Demand (EJ)
~370 EJ (A1T, A1FI, A1B)
~300 EJ (B2)
~160 EJ (A2)
~70 EJ (B1)
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Predicted RPPs in Canada
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100
~5.4 EJ (A1FI)
~7.5 EJ (A2)
~3.6 EJ (A1B)~2.9 EJ (A1T, B2)
~1 EJ (B1)
Expected production, Refined Petroleum Products (EJ)
Source: (1) Statistics Canada (2006); (2) IPCC (2003)
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Predicted Biofuels 2100
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100
Expected production, Refined Petroleum Products (EJ)
3.6 EJ(High)
0.1 EJ(Low)
Forest Products Biotechnology at UBC
Outline1. Drivers for bioenergy development2. Global fibre supply and demand3. Estimates of fibre surplus or deficits4. Estimates of bioenergy demand5. Summary & Recommendations
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Summary of estimatesEstimated supply (industrial roundwood surplus), 2050:
13.3 to 119.8 EJ
Estimated demand (all sources of bioenergy), 2050:
22 to 204 EJ
Questions:How much bioenergy can the forest provide in reality?How will bioenergy impact existing forest products?Can fuelwood be used to supply industrial bioenergy?
Forest Products Biotechnology at UBC
RecommendationsFAO and partners should undertake a new ‘Fibre Supply Analysis’ that takes fuelwood and emerging bioenergy options into account
The use of new technologies to more efficiently extract bioenergy at all stages of forest operations must be considered
Champions need to be identified in our organizations to move this project forward
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