Health and Wellness for all Arizonans

Preparing for Extreme Heat in Arizona: A Heat-Health Early Warning System Approach

Matthew Roach, MPHNational Disaster Epidemiology Workshop

May 17, 2016Atlanta, GA

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Source: Flickr creative commons

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Arizona Temperatures

Phoenix, 114 days over 100 degrees F annually

Hottest Temperature on record in AZ

• 128°F, Lake Havasu City

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AZ July Temperature Projections

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Heat Morbidity & Mortality in Arizona

• Average of 126 heat-caused deaths and 160 heat-associated deaths from 2001-2013

• 2,000+ Heat-Related Emergency Room Visits per year (2008-2013)

• 500+ Heat-Related Inpatient Admissions per year (2008-2013)

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Syndromic Surveillance

• Investigational approach to monitor disease indicators in real-time or near real-time to detect outbreaks of disease earlier than would otherwise be possible with traditional public health methods

• Can be used to monitor emergency department visits during extreme heat events

http://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/preview/mmwrhtml/su5301a3.htm

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Decision-Support

• Syndromic Surveillance

• Hospitalization Data

– Emergency Department Visits

– Inpatient Admissions

• Death Data

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Syndromic Surveillance Data

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Excessive Heat Cases

using Syndromic

Surveillance

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Illustration of Selected Trigger Points for All-Cause Mortality

and Heat-Related Health Events: Implications for Practice?

Petitti, Hondula, Yang, Harlan, Chowell. In Review

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Chronic vs. EpisodicAdapted or Not?

• Heat weather hazard doctrine emphasizes an episodic heat wave warning concept originating from temperate mid latitude context.

• The average summer day in Phoenix, or the global south, meets outcomes-based definitions of a heat wave.

Source: Robert A. Rohde, Global Warming Art via Wikipedia

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Arizona Extreme Heat Response Plan

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Purpose• Limit the adverse public health effects from excessive heat events

• Identify conditions and/or events that would trigger activation of part or the entire Extreme Heat Incident Annex

• Provide a framework for coordinating the efforts of divisions within ADHS, counties, tribes, cities, and other stakeholders and agencies that provide services to support the citizens of Arizona.

• Considerations: Homeless, Seniors ,Medically “at-risk”, people with access and functional needs

• Provide a list of prevention and educational resources that may mitigate heat-health adverse effects and/or deaths

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Activation

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• Sign-up for heat alerts at www.azdhs.gov

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Other Heat Action Plan Resources

• Ahmedabad, India Heat Action Plan

– https://www.nrdc.org/sites/default/files/ahmedabad-heat-action-plan-2016.pdf

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Summary

• How do we reduce heat deaths and illnesses?

– Use both public health data and weather data for decision support

– Provide information desired by organizations that respond to heat and the public

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Thank you

• Acknowledgements

– CDC Climate Ready States & Cities Initiative

– Corey Tarango, ADHS PHEP Planner

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Contact Information

Matthew Roach, MPH

Climate and Health Program Manager

matthew.roach@azdhs.gov

602-364-3673