Post on 28-Jan-2018
ANALYSIS OF FACTORS AFFECTING
INDONESIAN RUBBER EXPORT VOLUME TO
SELECTED COUNTRIES YEAR 2000-2013
Monday, October 17th 2016
Luppy Pangesti
120210120029
Outline
Introduction
Literature Review
Research Methods
Research Findings and Discussion
Conclusion and Suggestions
INTRODUCTION
Indonesia is the 2nd largest rubber exporter country after Thailand & Malaysia, with the
total production up to 3,2 Million tons in 2013
and keep increasing.
Thus, this results in a large export to many countries, where the
biggest importer countries are Japan, China, South Korea, USA, also Singapore.
The development of Indonesian rubber
export volume is can be determined by any factors, like price,
exchange rate/currency, etc.
P R O B L E M S
I D E N T I F I C A T I O N
1.How is the development of the
Indonesian Rubber Export Volume to
the selected countries in 2000-2013?
2.How do the factors (Indonesian
rubber total production, International
rubber price, Output manufacture, and
IDR exchange rate to US$) affect to the
Indonesian rubber export volume to the
selected countries in 2000-2013?
R E S E A R C H O B J E C T I V E S
1.To analyze the development of
Indonesian Rubber export volume to
Japan China, South Korea, Singapore,
and USA in 2000-2013.
2.To examine whether the factors
(Indonesia’s crumb rubber total
production, International Rubber Price,
Output Manufacture, and the exchange
rate) influence the Indonesian Rubber
exports to Japan, China, South Korea,
Singapore, and USA in the year 2000-
2013.
LITERATURE REVIEW
Theoretical Analysis
• Heckscher -Ohlin Theory
• Porter’s Theory of Competitive Advantage
• The Leontif Paradox Theory
International Trade
Theories
• Any products that can not be produced in the country now can be enjoyed by imports
• International trade allow specialization
• Countries that do international trade can produce greater than the domestic market.
Advantages of International
Trade
Empirical Analysis
Ratih Nuralitha Pratika, 2007
• The Analysis Effect of Exchange Rate Fluctuations on Agricultural Commodity Exports (Rubber and Coffee) in Indonesia
Juliana M, 2012
• Analysis of Affecting Factors of the Indonesian Rubber Export to United States
Flora Felina Aditasari , 2011
• Factors Affecting Indonesia's Rubber Exports to The People's Republic of China in 1999-2009
Conceptual Framework
Indonesian rubber export
volume to selected countries
Output Manufacture of
the selected countries
International rubber price
Indonesian rubber total production
IDR exchange rate to US$
Hypothesis
Output manufacture of the selected countries has positive influence on Indonesian rubber
export volume to Japan, China, South
Korea, Singapore, and United States.
International rubber price has negative
influence to the Indonesian rubber export volume to
Japan, China, South Korea, Singapore, and
United States.
Total production of Indonesian Rubber
has positive influence to Indonesian Rubber Export Volume to the Japan, China, South
Korea, Singapore, and United States.
Indonesian rupiah (IDR) exchange rate to the US dollar (US$) has negative influence on
Indonesian rubber export volume to
Japan, China, South Korea, Singapore, and
United States.
RESEARCH METHODS
Research Scope
Five countries ; Japan, China, South Korea, Singapore & USA for the period 2000-
2013
Indonesian Rubber Production, 2000-2013
Data
Secondary Data from World Bank, OECD, ADB, Bank Indonesia, Direktorat Jenderal Perkebunan
Indonesia & Badan Pusat Statistik (BPS) Indonesia
Methods (OLS with Panel Data Regression
Model)
Chow Test
Hausman Test
t-Test
F-Test
Coefficient of Determination
Normality Test
Heteroscedasticity Test
Autocorrelation Test
Multicollinearity Test
Model Estimation
Definition of Variables
1. Rubber Export Volume to Selected Countries (Dependent Variable)
2. Output Manufacture Development of Countries
3. International Rubber Price
4. Indonesian Rubber Total Production
5. Indonesian Rupiah (IDR) Exchange Rate to US Dollar (US$)
RESEARCH FINDINGS AND DISCUSSION
Estimation Results
Chow test
Hausman Test
Cross-section F Prob. F Results
Chow Test 67,290678 0,0000 Fixed Effect
Chi-Sq (2) Prob. Chi-Sq Results
Hausman Test 0,000 1,000 Random Effect
Random Effect Regression Model
The regression equation formed is as follows:
RE = 88,130 – 0,005 OM + 4,181 RP + 0,000096 TP – 0,0001 ER
Classical Assumption Test
• Normality test
• Multicollinearity Test
Jarque-Berra Test Prob. Jb Results
2,051562 0,358 Normal
Variance Inflation Factors
Variable Centered VIF
C NA
OM 1.001437
RP 4.870291
TP 5.442494
ER 2.009981
• Heteroscedasticity Test
• Autocorrelation Test (Durbin-Watson Test)
• F Test
DF1 (K) = 4
DF2 = N (60) – k (4) – n (1) = 55
Obs*R-Squared Prob. 2 Results
White Test 8,768715 0,067 Homoscedasticity
dU Durbin-Watson 4-dU Results
1,559 2,363482 2,441 No correlation detected
Fcalculated Ftabulated Prob.F α Decision Result
6,912 2,540 0,0001 0,05 Ho rejected Significant
Dependent Variable: RE
• T test
• Coefficient of Determination
Variable t-calculated t-table Ho Result
OM -2,101 -2,004 Rejected Significant at α=0,05
RP 0,184 2,004 Accepted Not significant at α=0,05
TP 2,180 2,004 Rejected Significant at α=0,05
ER -0,006 -2,004 Accepted Not significant at α=0,05
R² = 0.334 or
33,4%
1-R² = 66.6%
CONCLUSION AND POLICY IMPLICATION
Output manufacture has significant influence to the Indonesian rubber exports.
International rubber price does not have significant influence to the Indonesian rubber exports.
The Indonesian rubber total production has significant influence to the Indonesian rubber exports.
Indonesian Rupiah (IDR) to US dollar (US$) exchange rate has no significant effect to the Indonesian rubber exports.
Policy Implications
The companies or exporters of rubber in Indonesia can
maintain and improve the quality of its rubber production.
Indonesian government should find the solutions for the rubber development problem, such as
low productivity, lack of revitalizations and use of
Superior Seeds, etc.
Along with the presence of AEC (Asean Economic Community),
Indonesia should take this as an opportunity to spread the wings of the rubber export goes larger.
Photo Credit : Yopie Pangkey