Populism in the European Parliament – the future Parliament

Populists will do well in the election…

…But they will remain fragmented

The current make-up of the EP

Image: Ssolbergj

GUE-NGL

S & D

Greens / EFAALDE

EPP

ECR

EFD

Non-Attached (NI)

The potential future make-up of the EP

Scenarios for the future ParliamentScenario 1: ultra-fragmentation

UKIPOrder and JusticeIndependent GreeksSGPFinns PartyDanish People’s PartyFive Star Movement

Front NationalPVVVlaams BelangFPÖLega NordSweden Democrats?

Europe of Freedom and Democracy

A new populist group

Non-Attached Members

JobbikGolden DawnLSNS

Source: Electionista, own calculationsImages: Remi Noyon, Niccolò Caranti, Steve Jurvetson

Scenarios for the future ParliamentScenario 2: UKIP betrayed

Front NationalPVVVlaams BelangFPÖLega NordSweden Democrats?

JobbikGolden DawnLSNSUKIP

Source: Electionista, own calculationsImages: Remi Noyon,  Jennifer Jane Mills

A new populist group

Non-Attached Members

Scenarios for the future ParliamentScenario 3: more of the same

UKIPFinns PartyDanish People’s PartyLega NordFive Star MovementOrder and JusticeIndependent Greeks

JobbikFront NationalPVVVlaams BelangFPÖSweden DemocratsGolden DawnLSNS

Source: Electionista, own calculationsImage:: Steve Jurvetson

Europe of Freedom and Democracy

Non-Attached Members