Comparison Study:• Armenia• Belarus• Ukraine

Politicalinindex

Source: http://www.economist.com/node/13315243

Where the risk is greatest that economic distress will foment social unrest

• Political Instability Task Force (PITF), George Mason University in the US – quantitative model with 80% success rate of predictability since 1955

• Cannot predict the intensity or duration of the instability, or its exact timing

• In 46 out of 50 cases of instability (instances of "adverse regime change") identified since 1980 by the PITF (about one-half of these were in Africa), the country had suffered a decline in GDP per head in at least one of the two years prior to the occurrence of instability

Sources: http://www.economist.com/node/13315243

Index Components

• Underlying vulnerability– Inequality– State history– Corruption– Ethnic fragmentation– Trust in institutions– Status of minorities– History of political instability– Proclivity to labour unrest– Level of social provision– A country's neighbourhood– Regime type– Regime type and factionalism

• Economic distress– Growth in incomes– Unemployment– Level of income per head

• Source: http://viewswire.eiu.com/index.asp?layout=VWArticleVW3&article_id=874361472

Source: http://viewswire.eiu.com/index.asp?layout=VWArticleVW3&article_id=874361472

Political Instability Index2009-2010 Index

Rank Country Underlying vulnerability

Economic distress

Index score  

2007 score

1 Zimbabwe 7.5 10.0 8.8 8.82 Chad 7.1 10.0 8.5 7.5

3

Congo (Democratic Republic) 8.3 8.0 8.2 7.2

4 Cambodia 7.9 8.0 8.0 6.0Sudan 7.9 8.0 8.0 7.0

6 Iraq 8.8 7.0 7.9 7.97 Haiti 7.5 8.0 7.8 6.8

Afghanistan 7.5 8.0 7.8 6.8Central African Republic 7.5 8.0 7.8 5.8Pakistan 7.5 8.0 7.8 5.8Cote d'Ivoire 7.5 8.0 7.8 7.8Zambia 7.5 8.0 7.8 6.8

13 North Korea 5.4 10.0 7.7 3.7

16 Ukraine 6.3 9.0 7.6 4.694 Armenia 4.6 7.0 5.8 3.8

124 Belarus 4.6 5.0 4.8 2.8

Source: http://viewswire.eiu.com/site_info.asp?info_name=social_unrest_table&page=noads&rf=0

Source: http://www.systemicpeace.org/polity/polity4.htm

Political Stability

• - Improving female life expectancy rate and infantile survival rate will improve- Enhancing primary Health Care services- Promoting investments domestically and internationally- Utilizing and managing resources well- Job creations

Political Instability

• Decrease in FDI (Foreign Direct Investment)

• Decrease in production levels, damage to infrastructure, resources not be used to their full capacity, human and money resources are not used wisely

• Without consensus, governments low economic reforms

Source: https://ib-economics.wikispaces.com/Political+Stability+and+Instability

Criticism

• Unpredictability of Arab Spring(report published after Economic Crisis,Latvia & Island government ousting examples)

• Political actions and sanctions, such as embargos(despite number of high risked countriestripling in comparison with 2007 figures)

Source: Managing Supply Chain Risks, http://supplychainreallife.wordpress.com/

Criticism cont’d

• broad definition of the absence of domestic civil conflict and widespread violencee. g. Jimmy Carter on Iran in 1977 as “an island of stability in one of the more troubled areas of the world”

• Inadeqate assessment of government longevitycf. Italy (60 years – 60 governments),Belgium (541 days w/out cabinet) & Egyptwhen considered to be actually enhancing stability authoritarianism = full democracies v. hybrid regimes

Source: Cecilia Emma Sottilotta, Political Stability in Authoritarian Regimes: Lessons from the Arab Uprisings, IAI WORKING PAPERS 13 | 01 – January 2013 - http://www.iai.it/pdf/DocIAI/iaiwp1301.pdf

Source: http://www.systemicpeace.org/polity/PTfig04.htm

Ukraine’s EuroMaydan 2013

Source: http://news.bigmir.net/life/775514-FOTO-nedeli--Evromajdan--den--pamjati-zhertv-Golodomora-i-izverzhenie-Etny

Armenia’s 2013 ‘Barevolution’ (presidency runner up hunger strike)

Source: http://www.km.ru/world/2013/04/10/borba-oppozitsii-za-vlast-za-rubezhom/708110-aktsiya-protesta-oppozitsii-v-erevane-

Armenia 2013 Public Transportation are Increase Protests

Source: http://armenianow.com/news/48027/armenia_bus_fare_raise_republican_party_mayor

Belarus 2010-2011President Elections Protests

Source: http://gallery.korrespondent.net/world/3142-milicyya-suprac-naroda-zaderzhanie-uchastnikov-revolyucii-cherez-socialnye-seti

Belarus 2012Teddy Bear Airdrop

Source: http://www.nytimes.com/2012/08/02/world/europe/in-belarus-a-teddy-bear-airdrop-vexes-lukashenko.html?_r=0

Kostiantyn Iakovliev(Ukraine)MA in Human Rights and Democratization,Yerevan State University – Belarusian State University, 2013

https://plus.google.com/u/0/+KostiantynIakovliev/

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