Post on 04-Jul-2015
description
EFFEKTIVE AUFWANDSCHÄTZUNG Wie kann ich in komplexen Projekten besser schätzen?
EFFEKTIVE AUFWANDSCHÄTZUNG Wie kann ich in komplexen Projekten besser schätzen?
Stolz etwas mit Wert und Bedeutung zu erschaffen
Entwicklungsprojekte vs. Geschäftsmodell
Start Ende
Break Even
Entwicklungsprojekte vs. Geschäftsmodell
Start Ende
Problem!
Break Even ?
Strategische Entscheidungen fehlen!
Schätzungen sind ungenau
Unsicherheit
Zeit
gelb gelb
Aussagen sind interpretierbar
1000 1000
Zahlen allerdings nicht
Termine und Budgets sind geschätzt
Effektive Planung
Start Ziel
Mein Troubleshooting-Problem
Effektiver Schätzen
Nano-Prozent Wert
1
Rela
tive
Wahr
sche
inlic
hkei
t
300 500 700 9000
Nano-Prozent
Erwarteter Wert
1
Rela
tive
Wahr
sche
inlich
keit
300 500 700 9000
Erwarteter Wert
Unsicherheit
1
Rela
tive
Wahr
sche
inlic
hkei
t
300 500 700 9000
Worst case
Unsicherheit
Umrechnen
50%
25%
75%
100%
Abso
lute
Wah
rsch
einl
ichk
eit
300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1000Stunden
Ablesen des Ergebnis
50%
25%
75%
100%
Abso
lute
Wah
rsch
einl
ichk
eit
300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1000Stunden
Auf Lücke setzen
Sinnvolle Releaseplanung Releaseplanung Project Temperature/Pressure System
Sample-PhaseRelease:
Planned ReleasedateMechanics - housing featuresMechanics - addon featuresElectronics - basic featuresElectronics - addon featuresSoftware - basic featuresSoftware - addon featuresOptics - basic featuresOptics - addon featuresActors - basic featuresActors - addon featuresSensors - basic featuresSensors - addon featuresDiagnosticsDiagnostic Tools
X N E U W % work N E U W % work N E U W % work N E U W % work N E U W % work N E U W % workCollect customer requirements x 45 70 6 270 80% 175 x 35 70 5 175 80% 121Evaluate customer requirements x 35 70 5 175 80% 121 x 35 70 5 175 80% 121Create systems requirements specification x 60 90 3 180 80% 134Update systems requirements specification x 70 140 3 210 80% 166
Total hours 80% 429 80% 407 0 0 0 0
X N E U W % work N E U W % work N E U W % work N E U W % work N E U W % work N E U W % workDefine systems boundary x 20 45 4 80 80% 60Develop chain of constrains x 50 70 5 250 80% 165Allocate systems requirements x 30 67 4 120 80% 89Create systems architecture specification x 70 120 6 420 80% 275Update systems architecture specification x 40 80 4 160 80% 116
Total hours 80% 589 80% 116 0 0 0 0
N E U W % work N E U W % work N E U W % work N E U W % work N E U W % work N E U W % workEvaluate systems requirements x 20 45 4 80 80% 60 x 5 15 3 15 80% 14Create mechanic requirements specification x 15 25 4 60 80% 42Create electronic requirements specification x 30 67 4 120 80% 89Create optical requirements specificationCreate software requirements specification x 10 23 3 30 80% 25Update mechanic requirements specification x 20 30 5 100 80% 67Update electronic requirements specification x 50 80 5 250 80% 168Update optical requirements specificationUpdate software requirements specification x 30 60 4 120 80% 87
Total hours 80% 216 80% 335 0 0 0 0
N E U W % work N E U W % work N E U W % work N E U W % work N E U W % work N E U W % workCreate mechanic component design x 30 38 7 210 80% 131Create electronic component design x 23 56 4 92 80% 70Create optical component designCreate software high level design x 30 67 4 120 80% 89Create software low level design x 10 23 3 30 80% 25Update mechanic component design x 20 43 5 100 80% 70Update electronic component design x 60 83 5 300 80% 198Update optical component designUpdate software high level design x 30 55 4 120 80% 86Update software low level design x 15 35 3 45 80% 37Total hours 80% 315 80% 391 0 0 0 0
N E U W % work N E U W % work N E U W % work N E U W % work N E U W % work N E U W % workDevelop mechanic components x 150 200 3 450 80% 328 x 30 50 3 90 80% 68 x 150 190 4 600 80% 408 x 50 75 2 100 80% 84 x 90 115 3 270 80% 195Develop electronic components x 120 170 4 480 80% 331 x 65 95 5 325 80% 216 x 70 95 4 280 80% 192 x 30 50 3 90 80% 68 x 35 70 2 70 80% 66Develop optical components Develop software modules x 40 70 3 120 80% 92 x 10 20 3 30 80% 24 x 25 50 3 75 80% 59 x 45 75 3 135 80% 102 x 40 60 4 160 80% 111Update mechanic components Update electronic components Update optical components Update software components
Total hours 0 0 80% 750 80% 307 80% 659 80% 254 80% 373
N E U W % work N E U W % work N E U W % work N E U W % work N E U W % work N E U W % workMechanical system test x 80 115 2 160 80% 133 x 32 40 3 96 80% 69Electronical system test x 75 93 3 225 80% 162 x 28 42 4 112 80% 78Optical system testSoftware system test x 50 70 3 150 80% 110 x 80 110 3 240 80% 176
Total hours 0 0 0 0 0 80% 405 0 80% 322
N E U W % work N E U W % work N E U W % work N E U W % work N E U W % work N E U W % workSetup test concept (Sys+HW+SW) x 8 16 4 32 80% 23Setup system test concept x 10 16 2 20 80% 17EMC tests x 50 90 4 200 80% 143 x 30 70 3 90 80% 75Climate tests x 20 40 3 60 80% 47 x 40 80 3 120 80% 95 x 60 115 3 180 80% 141Environments tests x 50 105 4 200 80% 147 x 30 55 3 90 80% 70Customer tests x 60 80 4 240 80% 164Systemtest x 40 110 4 160 80% 125Develop test plan x 30 60 4 120 80% 87 x 20 50 4 80 80% 61Documentation x 10 15 3 30 80% 22 x 20 30 3 60 80% 45 x 15 30 3 45 80% 36
Total hours 80% 128 80% 131 0 80% 282 80% 147 80% 609
0% 40% 70%
60%
100%
A010 A020 B010
-
100%
100%
80%
C-Sample
0%
-
----
50%50%
Feat
ure
by
Pha
se
21.10.13 18.12.13 18.03.14
Sys
tem
s re
qui
rem
ents
Det
aile
d d
esig
n
0% 30% 35%
30%
80% 100%
90%90%
60% 80%
80%0% 60%0%
-
30%
40%-
20%
80% 100%80%
0% 25% 40%20%
--
-60%
100%-
22.05.14
25% 40%
C020
0% 60% 80%70%
80%
90%
19.03.13 12.07.130%
Div
ison
tes
tsS
yste
m t
ests
A-Sample B-Sample
Sys
tem
s ar
chite
ctur
eD
etai
led
req
uire
men
tsC
omp
onen
t d
evel
opm
ent
35% 70%
B020 C010
Probleme kann man niemals mit derselben Denkweise lösen, durch die sie entstanden sind. (Albert Einstein)
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