PEACE and SECURITY Challenges on the African Continent

by Brenda Chikwe Mofya

Oxfam Pan Africa Policy Advisor – Peace and Security/Governance

Pre-Summit Seminar, 29th June 2016

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FOCUS OF THE PRESENTATION

Peace and security trends – expected

& unexpected developments

AU/PSC interventions last 6 months –

overview

27th Summit – what to expect?

Recommendations/Way forward

29th June 2016

Peace & Security : Trends

Pre-Summit Seminar, 29th June 2016

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Positive Developments

• By close of 2015, large parts of Africa had become peaceful.

In terms of political and social stability Guinea Bissau, Egypt

and Cote d’Ivoire made largest global improvement;

• In terms of conflict events/Battles, fatalities, countries

such as South Sudan, Burundi and CAR witnessed a lot

of improvement;

• Good governance, democracy & development gains also

witnessed in many countries; e,g. Botswana, Ghana,

Mauritius.

• Youngest Continent – 70% of population is under 39 years

of age. Most productive if used well.

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Civil war, SS, December 2013 – 2015

ACLED (Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project)

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However….Picture still bleak

Red24/Allia ISS

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THE STATE OF GLOBAL PEACE

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Challenges

• Violent conflict continues – South Sudan, Burundi, CAR, Sudan, DRC, Libya,

Mali etc – prostrated WESA, Somalia, Eritrea/Ethiopia (technically) - Africa

currently occupies 60% of UNSC agenda

• Fragile states - flawed democracy, autocratic regimes, corruption, poverty -

Civil war, violent protests, civil strife, xenophobia, unrest

• Civil war, violent protests, civil strife, xenophobia, unrest

• Emerging threats to peace – terrorism and illicit arms flow, Illicit financial flows

– Nigeria, Lake Chad Basin, Sahel region, Djibouti, Libya

Consequently…

• Refugee Crisis: Sub-Saharan African being host to the largest number of

refugees, 4.4 million against global fig. 16.1 (Burundi 221,600, SS 162, 100,

CAR 85,000, Nigeria 68,200, Eriteria 35,000, Somalia 13,700, Sudan 10,900)

• Ethiopia home to– 736, 100

• IDPs - 30+ million

• Migration/Mediterranean

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PSC last 6 months/ 27th Summit Agenda

AU RESPONSE TO THE TRENDS

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AU/PSC over the last 6 months

• Issued numerous communiques on various thematic issues and

conflict situations (more to the almost 600 since 2004)

• Themes: elections, migration, arms control, post conflict

reconstruction, Ebola virus, natural resource, climate change, border

management, ICC, agriculture, UNSC/PSC relations, Women peace

and security, children in armed conflict, violent extremism/terrorism

• Situations: Burundi, Somalia, WESA, Guinea Bissau, Libya, South

Sudan, Sudan, Mali, LRA, DRC

Big question…

Impact??

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Summit…

Decisions on the Report of the Chairperson

on state of peace and security on the

continent, PSC activities

Alternative financing for AU-led peace

support operations; 25% AU fund/ 75% UN

Assessment contribution

Going forward: what should the AU be

considering

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Going forward

Forging links between APSA & AGA

Clarity on the notion of subsidiarity – coordination and

harmonisation of sub-regional responses/difference of

opinions and approaches

Conflict management without real leverage – carrot stick,

coercive power

Decisions vis a vis resource implications

Challenge of consistence of decisions at different levels

CSO engagement – Livingstone Formula/Maseru Conclusions

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THANK YOU

Follow me on:

Twitter: @Palabanapalms

Email: Brenda.mofya@oxfaminternational.org