Panel 6: Policy Initiatives in China

Thursday November 17 (9:00-10:00)

12th Symposium onDevelopment and Social Transformation

Towards Fulfillment of Universal Service Obligation in Telecommunications: Case

Study of China

Anindita Sen Gupta

Panel 6: Policy Initiatives in China

12th Symposium onDevelopment and Social Transformation

“Universal Access” is defined as ensuring that telephone serviceis within reasonable reach of everyone.

“Universal Service” is aimed at providing telecommunication Services to all households in the country . It requires that telephone service be AVAILABLE, ACCESSIBLE AND AFFORDABLE.

“Universal Service Obligation”(USO) is defined as the cost of serving those customers whose monthly bills do not cover the costOf proving the service.

NEED FOR UNIVERSAL SERVICE

Two major rationales for providing universal service

For the sake of necessity.Universal access is considereda basic human right in “GlobalHuman Rights Manifesto.

Due to concern for economic development and spatialinequality

STAGES OF UNIVERSAL SERVICE

Stage-INetwork

Establishment

Stage-IIWide Geographic

reach

Stage IIIMass Market

Take up

Stage IVNetwork

Competition

Stage VService toindividuals

China is in Stage II and III and progressing towards IV

FACTS ON DIGITAL DIVIDE IN CHINA

DIGITAL DIVIDE BROADLY IS BETWEEN:

• China and other countries• Western, Central and Eastern Regions within China• Urban and Rural areas

FOCUS IS ON THE RURAL URBAN DIVIDE

URBAN RURAL

Quality 67.5% OF TOTAL FIXED LINE USERS99%OF THE 100 MILLION INTERNET USERS

BALANCE 32.5%LESS THAN 1% OF THE TOTAL INTERNET USERS

Quantity PENETRATION 37.6 PER 100 INHABITANTS, 2.6 TIMES RURAL

14.6 PER 100 INHABITANTS, 60,000 ADMINISTRATIVE VILLAGES YET TO BE COVERED

*statistics from presentation of DG of Telecommunications of MII

PROMOTION OF RURAL ACCESS

OVERALL PLANNING

STEP I

Rural AccessProject “telephone reaching every village

STEP II

Increasing the number of rural users and penetration

STEP III

Enriching and enlargingthe content and methods of rural access

LESSONS FOR INDIA FROM THE MAIN MEASURES

•ADMINISTRATIVE SYSTEM: INVOLVEMENT OF PROVINICIAL ADMINISTRATION IN IMPLEMENTATION.

•RESOURCE ASSIGNMENTIT IS UNDER CONSIDERATION TO ASSIGN SPECTRUM ON PRIORITY TO OPERATORS UNDERTAKING RURAL PROJECTS.

•IMPLEMENTATIONRELEVANT OPERATORS TO CARRY OUT ASSIGNED RURAL PROJECTS

•TARIFF POLICYALLOW FLEXIBILITY IN RURAL TARIFFS

•NATIONAL SUPPORTACTIVELY SEEK THE SUPPORT OF LOCAL GOVERNMENTS IN FUNDS POLICY AND TAXES AND APPROPRIATE CENTRAL FINANCING

Population Policy in China Sunil Kumar Gulati

Panel 6: Policy Initiatives in China

12th Symposium onDevelopment and Social Transformation

POPULATION POLICY.…China, lessons for India

Presented by

Kumar Sunil Gulati IAS

1999th Meeting on Effective, People friendly

Population Policy Formulation

What meeting? Here we are!

GR0WTH RATES 2001Don’t worry China , we will be Just there

POPULATION Annual Exp Gr. Rate%

Decadal Growth Rate%

World 6055 1.4 14

China 1263 0.6% 6

India 1027 1.9 21.3

THE WORLD-1991 2001Sl. COUNTRY POPULATION IN MILLIONS POPULATION IN MILLIONS

& PERCENTAGE TO & PERCENTAGE TO POPULATION IN (APROX. POPULATION IN (APROX.

1 CHINA 1160 (26.00) 1277(21.03)2 INDIA 843 (16.00) 1027(16.87)3 U.S.A. 251 (6.63) 281 (4.63)4 INDONESIA 179 (4.00) 212 (3.49)5 BRAZIL 146 (3.27) 170 (2.8)6 JAPAN 123 (2.76) 127 (2.09)7 BANGLADESH 109 (2.44) 129 (2.13)8 PAKISTAN 108 (2.42) 156 (2.58)9 GERMANY 80 (1.79) Russia147(2.42)10 FRANCE 57 (1.28) Nigeria 111(1.84)11 IRAN 58 (1.30) WORLD GROWTH12 U. K. 57. (1.28) RATE =1.4%13 IRAQ 17 (0.38)14 REMAINING 1270 (30.00)

ABOUT 143 COUNTRIESTOTAL 4455 (100) 6055 (100)

POPULATION DENSITYChoice is betweenMany,’numerous’heads..

Few REAL

Heads……

Sl. COUNTRY DENSITY PER SQ Kms

1 CHINA 133 (121)2 INDIA 324 (267)3 U.S.A. 30(27)4 INDONESIA 111 (94)5 BRAZIL 20 (17)6 JAPAN 335 (324)7 BANGLADESH 922 (779)8 PAKISTAN 198 (137)9 GERMANY 228

10 FRANCE 10611 IRAN 3512 U. K. 23613 IRAQ 4014 REMAINING 13

ABOUT 143 COUNTRIES

POPULATION & SURFACE AREA OF SELECTED COUNTRIES OF THE WORLD 2001(1991)

Do You Know ?Population of USA at 27.8 Cr

is third in the world next to India .

India=Three USAs + Two Canadas and still with a Bangladesh to spare.

Density of Population in India is only 324 compared to 30 in USA and 3 in Canada !

Population Policy Ancient times

War,Floods,droughts Kings Ming Dynasty (1368-98)

Used li-chia (ten headmen) to get ten Families (chia) to give labour and Taxes per fang(110 HHs)Pop 60.5 m ,5.7 per HH

Then it became ting, working Males per HH

Population PolicyLater 1740s Pao chia gave way

to tuan-lin meaning Grouping and Drill(350m)

Malthus thought Pop goes by G.P. Nature by A.P . So it will be a disaster and Nature will intervene.

Dr Sun Yat-Sen &Mao said the more people the more Power of Nation

Population Policy5. 195

8-61

Great Leap Forward: birth control propaganda ceased completely

658.6m Mao accepts 1000 m mark possible

6. 1962

State Council demands that everyone have access to contraceptives, especially in urban centers. Local guidelines recommended no more than 2 or 3 children per family, but it is not enforced.

673m CBR 37 TFR 6.02

Population Policy1965

Council beings to target rural as well as urban areas.

725m CBR 37.9 TFR 6.08

1971-72

Late marriage requirements are enforced at 23-25 for women and 25-28 for men, as is a spacing rule of 4 years between first and second children.

872m 1973 Mao accepts Family Planning needed CBR 29.8 TFR 4.98

Population Policy1979

Birth planning bureaus are established to limit couples to one birth, but to tolerate two. (Couples with only one child were given a “one-child certificate” entitling them to such benefits as cash bonuses, longer maternity leave, better child care, and preferential housing assignments. They pledge that they would not have more children.)

975m

CBR 17.8 TFR 2.75

Population Policy11.

1981

Lowered marriage age laws to 20 and 22 years old to placate population. Government prosecutes doctors who are illegally removing IUDs, providing pre-birth reports on the sex of the child.

1000m

Population Policy

1984

Law passed allowing all peasants who consent to a late birth of their first child and to an extended birth interval of eight to ten years to have a second child in rural areas.

1043m

Population Policy1986 Laxness (more 2nd

child permits granted) and loss of control after positive results of survey in 1985 when goals were almost met

1075m

INDIA Population Policy5. 19

52

The basic strategy in the First Plan was to treat family planning as a part of the health programme and provide 100% funds for it as a centrally sponsored programme. Launching of Family Planning Programme

361m

INDIA Population Policy6. 1976 Statement of National Population

Policy548 (1971)

7. 1977 New Pop. Policy Statement on Family Welfare Programme, Both statements were laid on the Table of the House in Parliament, but never discussed or adopted. Stressed the voluntary nature of the family planning programme". Name Changed to Family welfare

INDIA Population Policy

8. 1983 The National Health Policy of 1983 emphasized the need for "securing the small family norm, through voluntary efforts and moving towards the goal of population stabilisation". While adopting the Health Policy, Parliament emphasized the need for a separate National Population Policy.

683(1981)

INDIA Population Policy9. 1991 The National

Development Council appointed a Committee on Population with Shri Karunakaran as Chairman. The Karunakaran Report endorsed by NDC in 1993 proposed the formulation of a National Population Policy

846 (1991)

INDIA Population Policy12. 199

7On the 50th anniversary of India's Independence, Prime Minister Gujral promised to announce a National Population Policy in the near future. During 11/ 97 Cabinet approved the draft National Population Policy with the direction that this be placed before Parliament. However, this document could not be placed in either House of Parliament as the respective Houses stood adjourned followed by dissolution of the Lok Sabha.

INDIA Population Policy

14.

2000 National Population Policy Formulated

 INDIA vs. CHINA  1980 1990 1995 2000

(2005)

GNP per cap (US$)INDIA 270 390 380 450

China 220 320 520 840

Population   Total India (millions) 687.3 849.5 932.2 1,015.9

China 981.2 1,135.2 1,204.9 1,262.6

Female (% of total) INDIA

48.2 48.3 48.4 48.4

China 48.5 48.4 48.5 48.4

ADULT IL-LITERACY   Male India 45.4 38.1 34.8 31.6(29.8) Female 73.5 64.1 59.4 54.6(51.7)F-M GAP 28.1 26 24.6 23(22)   Male China 21 12.8 10.1 7.9(4.9) Female 45.6 31.1 26.4 22.1(13.5)F-M GAP 24.6 18.3 16.3 14.2(8.6)

LABOR FORCE PARTICIPATION RATE

INDIA vs CHINA  1980 1990 1995 2000

Total labor force INDIA(millions)

300 361 403 451

Labor force, female (% of total labor force)

34 31 32 32

Non Workers 387.3 488.5 529.2 564.9%Non Workers 56.4 57.5 56.8 55.6Total labor force CHINA

(millions)539 672 720 757

Labor force, female (% of total labor force)

43 45 45 45

Non Workers 442.2 463.2 484.9 505.6%Non Workers 45.1 40.8 40.2 40.0

Massive health education campaign: the messages tend to focus on the societal dangers of overpopulation

and the personal material benefits of having only one child

Visionary statements were followed up by people friendly laws, which were

enforced..no Lip Service

Age at Marriage

CHINA Urban M 25,F 23RURAL M23, F 21 INDIA U/R age M21 F 18But in China it was not always

this, see the TIME LINE

Age at Marriage:

Historic Burden in China Confucius (d 479BC) said ‘to die without

offspring is one of the 3 gravest unfilial acts’

and Mo Ti also encouraged early marriage

Mao was also against Family Planning till 1973

TIME LINE Age at Marriage The marriage law of 1950 raised the age

from 18 to 20 for males and 16 to 18 for females

CHINA(1973) Late marriage requirements are enforced M 25-28 yrs F23-25

Spacing rule of 4 years between first and second children.

1981:Lowered marriage age laws to 20 and 22 years old to placate population.

Notice the FLEXIBILTY1984: Law passed allowing all

peasants who consent to a late birth of their first child and to an extended birth interval of eight to ten years to have a second child in rural areas.

1986 Laxness (more 2nd child permits granted) and loss of control after positive results of survey in 1985 when goals were almost met

TIME LINE Age at MarriageINDIA Historically Child Marriages1956 : Child Marriage Prohibition

Act fixed Urban/Rural age at Males 21 Females 18Since then Please all policy the

same goes on…………We don’t care…

Goals for 2010:INDIANational Pop. Policy

Promote delayed marriage for girls, not earlier than age 18 and preferably after 20 years of age

Address the unmet needs for basic reproductive and child health services, supply and infrastructure

China’s Population Growth, A.D. 0–2050

CHINA Population Growth, Crude Birth and Death Rates, 1949–1996

Empowerment of Women

Empowerment comes from:Political DemocracyEconomic Prosperity

China has used the ECONOMIC Route successfully

Empowerment of Women

Empowerment comes from:Quality of LIFE Theory

China has used the ECONOMIC Route successfully

S No. China India

1. What is the issue?

Population Going out of HandNeeds to be regulated

Population Going out of HandNeeds to be regulated

2. What is the Background ?

Population gone up rapidly 1940s to 1970s

Population gone up rapidly 1940s to 1970s

3. What are our Interests?

That Population goes as per Carrying capacity of the Nation

That Population goes as per Carrying capacity of the Nation

4. What are the interests of others?

The citizens want that they lead an economically sound and happy life.

The citizens want that they lead an economically sound and happy life.

S No. China India

5. What do we want to happen?

The Population should have TFR of below 1.8, BR below 14, healthy Sex Ratio,IMR ,MMR etc

The Population should have TFR of below 1.8, BR below 14, healthy Sex Ratio, IMR ,MMR etcWhen?

S No. China India

6. What can we do?

•Make Communes/cadres responsible for family size•strong fiscal incentives/penalties.•Use Force ,including threat to imprison, take away 2nd child, job etc if >1 child in Urban areas.

•Make people responsible for their family size as per the resources available•Make next generation better off than they themselves. •Follow up with strong financial disincentives in case of irresponsible behaviour.•Monitor strongly•Effective IEC

S No. China India

7. What should we do?

Emphasise on EducationHealth, Reproductive and Child, employment of women, Functional Literacy, better Child day-care facilities.Also financial dis-incventives to the family which does not keep its word

Emphasise on EducationHealth, Reproductive and Child, employment of women, Functional Literacy, better Child day-care facilities.We should have incentives for small family and financial dis-incventives to the family which does not keep its word .

S No. China India

8. Who should so what?

Clearly defined role of different departments/organizations/individuals. Regular and tight monitoring to get the desired results

8.Clearly defined role of different departments/organizations/individuals/NGOs/Civil society/religious leaders. Regular and tight monitoring to get the desired results. Involve the Education, Family Welfare, Health, Rural Development, Urban Planning ..Deptt. Integrated Mission Mode approach needed.

Real Dating vs Smokey Dating

CHANGE or PERISH…..

Mobile Number Portability in Hong Kong

P. Sudhakara Rao

Panel 6: Policy Initiatives in China

12th Symposium onDevelopment and Social Transformation

What is MNP? Mobile Number portability allows the Mobile

Subscribers to retain their existing number when they change the subscription from one service provider to another.

It removes the major obstacle of freedom of choice of the customer and promotes the fair and efficient competition in the cellular industry.

Benefits of MNP Type 1 benefits: - Benefits accrue to

subscribers who retain their telephone numbers

Type 2 benefits: - Benefits that arise out of competition between the operators

Type 3 benefits: - Cost savings to callers to porting users

Study of Mobile Number Portability Feasibility Study and cost-benefit

analysis of MNP for Mobile services in Hong Kong by consultant.

Results of cost-benefit analysis-Introduction of MNP would promote fair competition and create net benefits of HK $ 461 million in net present value over 10 years.

Implementation of MNP in Hong Kong Based on Consultant’s findings and cost-

benefit analysis Through extensive consultation/discussion with

Industry Direct Implementation of Distributed Database

solution with FNO providing look up service on 1st March 1999

Set up of Implementation Task Force (ITF) of MNP to work on detailed technical specifications and Implementation schedule

Implementation of MNP in Hong Kong Technical considerations-

Originating Network operator perform number translation or Dipping

FNO provide look up service for MNO or MNO self build GN database

Implementation of MNP in Hong Kong Cost recovery principles-

FNO recovers the system set up costs, on going costs and per set up cost from MNO

Charges among MNO waived

Implementation of MNP in Hong Kong

Charging principles and arrangement- DNO not allowed to charge porting

customer Database interrogation charge of

FTNS regulated by OFTA Per subscriber set up charge

regulated by OFTA

Outcomes

Implemented successfully with in a time frame of 8.5 months

Huge demand for MNP from customers Improved service quality and reduced tariff

due to heightened competition Mobile subscriber base exceeded 8 million

representing 117% penetration of the population

No operator has yet dominate the market due to high subscriber churn facilitated by the MNP

Key Learning for India

Experience of Hong Kong is very much useful

Conducting feasibility study and cost- benefit analysis

Involving Industry in finalizing the technical and functional standards

Set up of Implementation Task Force Go for long term solution with out going

for migration through short term solution

Key Learning for India

EXCEPTIONS No prior experience of Number

portability in Fixed Telecom services Instead of Distributed Database model,

centralized database service is ideal for Indian context

Panel 6: Policy Initiatives in China

Thursday, November 17 (9:00- 10:00)

Anindita Sen Gupta Universal Service Obligation: ChinaSunil Kumar Gulati Population Policy in China

P. Sudhakara Rao Mobile Number Portability in Hong Kong

12th Symposium onDevelopment and Social Transformation