Post on 06-Apr-2015
OTTO-VON-GUERICKE-UNIVERSITÄT MAGDEBURGFakultät für Verfahrens- und Systemtechnik
Institut für Apparate- und Umwelttechnik
INNOVATION AND TECHNICAL PROGRESS: BENEFIT WITHOUT RISK?
11-13 September 2006, Ljubljana, Slovenia
Risk Analysis for the Infrastructure
of a Hydrogen Economy
O.A. Rosyid, D. Jablonski, U. Hauptmanns
OTTO-VON-GUERICKE-UNIVERSITÄT MAGDEBURGFakultät für Verfahrens- und Systemtechnik
Institut für Apparate- und Umwelttechnik
ROLE OF HYDROGENROLE OF HYDROGEN
The scarceness of fossil fuels and the resulting price increases
have put alternative energies on the agenda.
Hydrogen:• may play an important role• enables one to store energy and put it into end use at the time
and place desired• production sources: electricity (nuclear energy), renewable
energy sources (wind, sun), electricity produced during hours of low consumption by a country’s electric power system
A large-scale introduction of hydrogen into an economy requires that
the risks associated with it should be at least not higher than those
of existing technologies, e.g. LPG
1. Introduction
2. H2 Economy
3. Methods
4. Example
5. Risk
6. Conclusions
OTTO-VON-GUERICKE-UNIVERSITÄT MAGDEBURGFakultät für Verfahrens- und Systemtechnik
Institut für Apparate- und Umwelttechnik
1. Introduction
2. H2 Economy
3. Methods
4. Example
5. Risk
6. Conclusions
INFRASTRUCTUREINFRASTRUCTURE
Potential hydrogen applications in Germany: cars – fuel cell supplying an electric motor or combustion engine households – fuel cell combined heat and power units (FC-CHP)
In order to implement such systems the following infrastructure is needed:
OTTO-VON-GUERICKE-UNIVERSITÄT MAGDEBURGFakultät für Verfahrens- und Systemtechnik
Institut für Apparate- und Umwelttechnik
1. Introduction
2. H2 Economy
3. Methods
4. Example
5. Risk
6. Conclusions
STUDY OBJECTSSTUDY OBJECTS
Activities in the hydrogen economy and study
objects representative of its risk
ACTIVITY OBJECT OF ANALYSIS
Hydrogen production GH2 storage
Storage at depot LH2 storage
Hydrogen pipeline GH2
Hydrogen road tanker LH2 storage
Hydrogen private car LH2 storage
CHP-plant LH2 storage
OTTO-VON-GUERICKE-UNIVERSITÄT MAGDEBURGFakultät für Verfahrens- und Systemtechnik
Institut für Apparate- und Umwelttechnik
1. Introduction
2. H2 Economy
3. Methods
4. Example
5. Risk
6. Conclusions
RISK ASSESSMENT MODELRISK ASSESSMENT MODEL
OTTO-VON-GUERICKE-UNIVERSITÄT MAGDEBURGFakultät für Verfahrens- und Systemtechnik
Institut für Apparate- und Umwelttechnik
1. Introduction
2. H2 Economy
3. Methods
4. Example
5. Risk
6. Conclusions
EVENT TREE FOR GH2 RELEASEEVENT TREE FOR GH2 RELEASE
Accident scenarios are described by event trees, based on experience with accidents.
OTTO-VON-GUERICKE-UNIVERSITÄT MAGDEBURGFakultät für Verfahrens- und Systemtechnik
Institut für Apparate- und Umwelttechnik
1. Introduction
2. H2 Economy
3. Methods
4. Example
5. Risk
6. Conclusions
GH2 STORAGEGH2 STORAGE
OTTO-VON-GUERICKE-UNIVERSITÄT MAGDEBURGFakultät für Verfahrens- und Systemtechnik
Institut für Apparate- und Umwelttechnik
1. Introduction
2. H2 Economy
3. Methods
4. Example
5. Risk
6. Conclusions
FAULT TREEFAULT TREE
OTTO-VON-GUERICKE-UNIVERSITÄT MAGDEBURGFakultät für Verfahrens- und Systemtechnik
Institut für Apparate- und Umwelttechnik
1. Introduction
2. H2 Economy
3. Methods
4. Example
5. Risk
6. Conclusions
RELIABILITY RELIABILITY STUDYSTUDY
Component failureMedian in 10-
6 hr-1 Uncertainty factor K95
Test interval in
hrs
Pneumatic valve 17.8 2.2 876
Pressure switch 0,93 8.44 43800
Spring-loaded safety valve 1.13 8.4 43800
Compressor does not stop 1.4 4.0 876
Examples of reliability data and test intervals
Analytical solution of the fault tree leads to 96 minimal cut sets. Characteristic distribution parameters of the frequency of release:
• 5th centile: 3.9·10-8 yr-1
• Expected value: 1.0·10-6 yr-1
• 95th centile: 3.8·10-6 yr-1
OTTO-VON-GUERICKE-UNIVERSITÄT MAGDEBURGFakultät für Verfahrens- und Systemtechnik
Institut für Apparate- und Umwelttechnik
1. Introduction
2. H2 Economy
3. Methods
4. Example
5. Risk
6. Conclusions
CONSEQUENCESCONSEQUENCES
Death by overpressure Death by heat radiation
Death by tank fragment impact
Pressure wave:
0Y 77.1 6.91 ln p Heat radiation:
4 4 / 3Y 38.48 2.56 ln 10 t I
Probit equations:
OTTO-VON-GUERICKE-UNIVERSITÄT MAGDEBURGFakultät für Verfahrens- und Systemtechnik
Institut für Apparate- und Umwelttechnik
1. Introduction
2. H2 Economy
3. Methods
4. Example
5. Risk
6. Conclusions
RISKRISK
Individual risk was calculated by combining the expected frequency of tank rupture with the conditional probabilities of death, weighted by corresponding probabilities of the event tree.
• uncertainties of the results for the consequences were not assessed
• risk is low and rapidly decreases with distance – no one in direct vicinity of the plant (exclusion area)
OTTO-VON-GUERICKE-UNIVERSITÄT MAGDEBURGFakultät für Verfahrens- und Systemtechnik
Institut für Apparate- und Umwelttechnik
1. Introduction
2. H2 Economy
3. Methods
4. Example
5. Risk
6. Conclusions
CONCLUSIONSCONCLUSIONS
1. Risk of the hydrogen economy is not higher than that of a competing option, namely LPG.
2. Risk of the storage of gaseous hydrogen under pressure analysed here is low and can be tolerated, if current international risk objectives, i.e. individual risk around 10-6, are used as a yardstick.
3. There is no obstacle from the perspective of safety to implementing a “hydrogen economy”
OTTO-VON-GUERICKE-UNIVERSITÄT MAGDEBURGFakultät für Verfahrens- und Systemtechnik
Institut für Apparate- und Umwelttechnik
INNOVATION AND TECHNICAL PROGRESS: BENEFIT WITHOUT RISK?
11-13 September 2006, Ljubljana, Slovenia
Further details to be found under: www.uni-magdeburg.de/iaut/as
Risk Analysis for the Infrastructure
of a Hydrogen Economy
O.A. Rosyid, D. Jablonski, U. Hauptmanns