Optimizing Marine Protected Area Networks: The effects of climate change on

larval dispersal and connectivity

Rémi Daigle

@RemiDaigle

Outline:● Background and motivation

● My PhD research:

○ Swimming behaviours vs invertebrate larval distribution

● Postdoctoral Research:

○ Evaluation of larval behaviour

○ Sea cucumber larval dispersal

○ MPA optimization

○ BEST-MPA

● Future Directions

● Discussion!

But the new Canadian Government is pretty awesome...In the mandate letter from our PM to

DFO:

“Work with the Minister of Environment

and Climate Change to increase the

proportion of Canada’s marine and

coastal areas that are protected – to five

percent by 2017, and ten percent by 2020

– supported by new investments in

community consultation and science.”

Meeting deadlines VS ‘paper parks’

Convenvention on Biological DiversityGuidelines in the CBD:

● Ecologically and biologically

significant areas

● Representativity

● Connectivity

● Replicated ecological features

● Adequate and viable sites

Grad-student Remi’s guidelines

● Connectivity

● Other stuff...

In the beginning...

Being small larvae in a big ocean

CURRENT

CURRENT

You just can’t put a GPS on larvae!

Vertical distribution vs Temperature● Behaviour varies by species

● Observing behaviours enables

modelling!

Spatial co-localization

Patch size = tidal excursion

What is more important?Bio-physical interactions:

● Larval swimming behaviours

● Planktonic larval duration

● Larval release site

● Timing

Larval dispersal can be modelled!

Physics > Biology (and that hurts me)

Enter: charismatic megafauna

Giant California sea cucumber

The ‘cucumber’ questions:How does climate change affect larval dispersal?

● Dispersal distance?

● Degree of connectivity?

● Connectivity patterns

Identify “hotspots” of climate change sensitivity

● Limited to physical dispersal process

The physical model:Covers entire BC coast and a bit of USA

Years:

● Present: 1998-2007

● Future: 2068-2077 (labelled 2098-2107)

The physical model:Covers entire BC coast and a bit of USA

Years:

● Present: 1998-2007

● Future: 1968-1977

Series:

● A: genetic sites (daily: June-July)

The physical model:Covers entire BC coast and a bit of USA

Years:

● Present: 1998-2007

● Future: 1968-1977

Series:

● A: genetic sites (daily: June-July)

● G: Habitat grid sites (daily: June-July)

The physical model:Covers entire BC coast and a bit of USA

Years:

● Present: 1998-2007

● Future: 1968-1977

Series:

● A: genetic sites (daily: June-July)

● G: Habitat grid sites (daily: June-July)

● S: seasonal grid sites (bi-weekly: Jan-Aug)

Biology wins!

Connectivity: Dispersal distance mapped

Connectivity: Connected nodes mapped

Connectivity: ‘infomap’ clustering

Connectivity: ‘infomap’ clustering

Connectivity: ‘infomap’ clustering

Connectivity: ‘infomap’ clustering

Descriptive summary● Dispersal distance will be more affected by temperature than by flow regime

● Changes in flow regime will increase the level of population connectivity

● Hotspots:

○ Between southern Haida Gwaii - Mainland

○ West coast Vancouver Island

○ Maybe northern SOG

BCMCAEcological:

● Seabirds

● Fish

● Invertebrates

● Marine mammals

● Physical

● Plants

BCMCAHuman Use:

● Commercial fishing

● Sport Fishing

● Ocean energy

● Shipping

● Tenures

● Tourism & Recreation

MPA planningCompare the effectiveness of MPA networks:

● Status quo

● Designed from human+ecological data from BCMCA MARXAN analysis

● BCMCA+connectivity layer

Include spatially variable connectivity information into MARXAN analysis

So what!? BEST-MPA

Good Planning = Economic Benefit!

Future work: Putting the multi- in multi-approach● Does the genetic data support the biophysical model results? (Amanda Xuereb)

● Can we formulate theory that describes population persistence? (Ridouan Bani)

○ Negative covariance in connectivity = negative covariance in population fluctuations

● Can we include connectivity in a meaningful way into MPA planning

(MARXAN)? (Cassidy D’Aloia)

● Expand connectivity coverage for Atlantic Canada, and complete BEST-MPA case

study in BC (me)

Questions/DiscussionFocus on physical aspects of connectivity appropriate?

How to measure ‘success’ of connectivity?

Should MPA’s be climate refugia, or pathways to cooler climates?

How can (Canadian) scientist best position their science to provide useful advice?