Opinion Dailies versus Facebook Fan Pages:

The Case of Poland's Surprising 2015 Presidential Elections

Dr Helena Chmielewska-Szlajfer

versus

20 million Facebook users in Poland:

half of the country’s population

What visibility?

circulationca. 243 400ca. 505 000

circulationca. 63 500ca. 105 300

circulationca. 57 400ca. 30 000

Bronisław Komorowski Andrzej Duda Paweł Kukiz

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

IBRiSIBRiSEstymatorTNS PolskaMillward BrownIBRiSewybory.euPPG/DO

May 8May 7May 06–07May 06–07May 06–07May 6May 03–07April 27– May 03

Andrzej Duda Bronisław Komorowski

May polls before the first round: Komorowski and Duda

May polls before the second round: Komorowski and Duda

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

IBRiSMillwardBrown

EstymatorTNS PolskaIBRiSIBRiSMillwardBrown

PPG/DOEstymatorMillwardBrown

CBOSIBRiSMillwardBrown

Estymator

May 22May 22?May 21May 21May 21May 20May 20May 18–20May 18May 18May 14–20May 14?May 14May 13–14

Andrzej Duda Bronisław Komorowski

Official results of 2015 presidential elections: Komorowski and Duda

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

First round: May 10 Second round: May 24

Duda Komorowski

Voter turnout: 1st round 49%, 2nd round 55%

Information sourced and provided by newspapers

•anonymous polls

•experts

•public figures

Information sourced and provided on candidates’ Facebook fan pages

•candidates’ own posts

• links to traditional media sources

•comments of other Facebook users

Activity on main candidates’ Facebook fan pages March 31-May 11

Number of posts published on Facebook: January-June

Most engaging posts: Bronisław Komorowski

98 600

36 01427 965

22 554

20 396

Most engaging posts: Andrzej Duda

79 128

23 781

21 771

16 132

14 985

Most often used words in Facebook comments

Andrzej Duda Bronisław Komorowski

Conclusion

• Public discussions are moving to places where a more equal conversation is possible, i.e. multi-directional social media; traditional media no longer hold monopoly on shaping opinions

• In-betweenness of public and private on social media: private persons emotionally discuss public issues because they want to express themselves together with others (Arendt)

• Agonistic discussions on social media matter because they become visible to Facebook users who are citizens and make political choices (Mouffe)

Full article:

Chmielewska-Szlajfer, Helena. (2018). Opinion dailies versus Facebook fan pages. The case of Poland's surprising 2015 presidential elections, “Media, Culture and Society” (Online First, DOI: 10.1177/0163443718756065)

Email:

chmielewska.szlajfer@gmail.com