One Billion High Emitters:A New Approach for Sharing

Global CO2 Emission Reductions

Shoibal Chakravarty (PEI), Ananth Chikkatur (Harvard), Heleen de Coninck (ECN), Steve Pacala (PEI), Robert Socolow (PEI), Massimo Tavoni (FEEM)

Contact: shoibalc@princeton.edu

Background

• United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change– “Common but differentiated responsibilities”

– Two-tier world: Annex I (industrialised countries) and non-Annex I (rest of the world)

– Kyoto Protocol builds on this

• Ignores emission inequality within nations

• Guiding principle: agreement between sovereign states

• Based on a negotiated outcome? (Kyoto)

• Based on cumulative historical contribution to climate change?

• Or perhaps on future contribution to the climate problem?

• Based on the reduction potentials (geography, climate)?

• Based on national per capita greenhouse gas emissions? (Contraction and convergence)

• Based on the emissions of the individuals in a country?

What is a fair distribution of emission allowances among countries?

It does:– Treat two individuals with the same emissions equally,

regardless of their nationality

– Provide a simple but flexible ordering principle on which to base emission allocation to countries: both developed and developing

It does not:– Prescribe specific policy options

– Does not include land use emissions and non-CO2

gases

What this paper does (and does not do)

Source: IEA WEO 2007

Per-capita energy related CO2 emissions (2005)

Source: IEA WEO 2007

Per-capita energy related CO2 emissions (2030)

• Focus on the CO2 emissions of individual

• Treat every individual the same, no matter in which country they live

• Calculate the individual emissions cap: an appropriate emission allowance of any individual in the world

• Find the nation’s cap: Add up the individual allowances for each citizen in a country

National responsibilities based on individual emissions

8

Individuals ranked by annual emissions

9

Individual Emissions Cap

Determine the globally applicable individual emissions cap

10

Individual Emissions Cap

Some people exceed the individual emissions cap

11

National Emissions

Target

Required ReductionsIndividual Emissions Cap

+ + + + +

+

=

=

Add the capped emissions of the citizens to determine the national target

Use income distribution data to arrive at individual carbon distributions

Apply CountryCO2 intensity

Rank all people in the world, highest to lowest emission-wise

50%

75%

Choose a global target: 30 GtCO2 in 2030

Total emissions: 43 GtCO2

Choose a global target: 30 GtCO2 in 2030

Target 30 GtCO2

Reduction: 13 GtCO2

= 10.8 tCO2/person/yr

2030

2003: 26 GtCO2

2030: 43 GtCO2

13 Gt

30 Gt

Other global targets?

Regional emissions in 2030

30 Gt global cap, 10.8 individual cap

For a 30 GtCO2 global cap in 2030, similar population on which targets are based for four groupings

30 Gt global cap, 10.8 t individual cap

U.S.

China

Rest of OECD

Rest of world

Regional targets change with different global targets in 2030

0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

12.0

USA OECDEurope

China India Middle East Russia Africa

1990 (21.2 Gt) 2003 (25.5 Gt) 2030 BAU (43Gt) 35 Gt 30 Gt 25 Gt 20 Gt

• Most allocation schemes introduce fairness through a per capita emission convergence component

• This allocation scheme introduces fairness through treating every individual the same

• However, is it fair if the very poor remain very poor?

• Allow the 2.7 billion people at < 1 tCO2/yr to grow

• What does 1 tCO2/person/yr mean

– 800 kWh coal-fired power; 65km of driving; 14 kg LPG/month

– X 2 for indirect emissions

Headroom for the poor?

Combine global-emissions cap and individual-emissions floor

“30P” in 2030: 30 GtCO2 global emissions cap plus 1 tCO2 floor on individual emissions

Individual cap:without floor: 10.8 t CO2

with floor: 9.6 t CO2

1

Regional targets, with the 1tCO2 floor, for different global targets

0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

12.0

USA OECDEurope

China India Middle East Russia Africa

1990 (21.2 Gt) 2003 (25.5 Gt) 2030 BAU (43Gt) 35 Gt 30 Gt 25 Gt 20 Gt

• It is possible to arrive at national caps based on income-based individual emissions

• Only an allocation mechanism: flexibility on policy instrument

• Global cap of 30 GtCO2 in 2030 results in about 1 billion people having to reduce emissions

• The need of the poorest 2.7 billion people to emit more can be accommodated (but also uncertainty whether the poor will be spared)

Conclusion

What’s missing and how do we incorporate it ?

• CO2 from land use and non-CO2 gases

• Historical emissions: lifetime emissions, link to demographic statistics

• Strong levels of convergence

• Account for factors other than carbon intensity, e.g. geographical circumstances, climate, population density