Post on 27-Mar-2015
Observations on:
The 2003 OCLC Environmental Scan:
Pattern Recognition
Lorcan Dempsey
VP Research and Chief Strategist
CNI Spring 2004 Task Force MeetingAlexandria, April 16 2004
Overview The library community?
• The 2003 OCLC Environmental Scan
• Customary Board of Trustees 3 year review
• This year: – Worldwide scan– User perspective– In format for sharing
with membership
Pattern recognition
We have no future because our present is too volatile.
We have only risk management. The spinning of the given moment’s scenarios.
Pattern recognition …
We have no future because our present is too volatile.
We have only risk management. The spinning of the given moment’s scenarios.
Pattern recognition …
Worldwide Scan
•29 countries selected•60% of the world’s population•85% of world’s gross domestic product
•100 people interviewed
Scan contentSocialSocial
EconomicEconomic
TechnicalTechnical
Research & learning
LibraryLibrary
EconomicEconomic
TechnicalTechnical
Research & learning
LibraryLibrary
The social landscape The social landscape The social landscape The social landscape The social landscape The social landscape The social landscape The social landscape The social landscape The social landscape The social landscape The social landscape The social landscape The social landscape The social landscape The social landscape The social landscape The social landscape The social landscape The social landscape The social landscape The social landscape The social landscape The social landscape The
SocialSocial
Trends
• The ‘Amazoogle’ effect
• Generations
• The fabric of collaboration
• The value of the library
Technology is what has been invented since you were bornAlan Kay
Abuzz
Advice Trader
Answers.com
Ask An Expert
Sources.com
AskERIC
AskJeevesAskVRD.org
Ask the Old Buzzard
CNN’s Ask an Expert
Page
Consejos practicos
Google Answers
Internet Public Library
“Ask A Question”
Keen.com
Pregunta a los expertos
Taxcafe
Wondir
Ask Auntie Nolo
AskBAR
Experts.com
Poser un question
Ask-A-Geologist
As Ask Volcanologist
Ask Dr. Math
Ask Dr. Universe
Ask Shamu
How Things Work
MAD Scientist Network
NASA Quest
Pregunte a un expero
Schools Online Project
ScienceLine
Scientific-American: Ask the Expert
Ammdoc.com
Buscamed
Eclevelandclinic.com
Econsults.partners.org
Enviar pregunta
Expertdoc.net
Findcancerexperts.com
Go Ask Alice
Mdexpert.com
Physician referral center
Poser une question
Pregunte a RxExpress
Ask Joan of Art
National Museum of Art Reference Desk
Ask Made
iVillage
AskLISA
Laboratorio de estudos urbanos
Internet search & answer
Social
landscape
OCLC – compiled from various sources (August 2003)OCLC – compiled from various sources (August 2003)
“By 2007, Amazon.com’s revenue from microcontent sales will exceed $500million.”
(0.6 probability)
“By 2007, Amazon.com’s revenue from microcontent sales will exceed $500million.”
(0.6 probability)
Microcontent
OCLC – compiled from various sources (August 2003) http://search.yahoo.com/top2003
Last Minute Addition:
Last Minute Addition:
Worldwide Microcontent Market
2003 - $1Billion
Includes: ring tones, logos, screen savers, micro games, etc.
Worldwide Microcontent Market
2003 - $1Billion
Includes: ring tones, logos, screen savers, micro games, etc.
Top Ten Tech Searches 2003
1. Ringtones
2. Digital Cameras
3. Mobile Phones
4. HDTV
5. MP3 Players
6. iPod
7. TiVo
8. Plasma TV
9. DVD-R
10. Camcorders
Top Ten Tech Searches 2003
1. Ringtones
2. Digital Cameras
3. Mobile Phones
4. HDTV
5. MP3 Players
6. iPod
7. TiVo
8. Plasma TV
9. DVD-R
10. Camcorders
The Amazoogle effect
• Three perceived attributes?– Comprehensive– Accessible– Immediate gratification
The net generation doesn’t love a wall
The fabric of collaboration: Social software
The collaboration technology fabric
OCLC – compiled from various sources (August 2003)OCLC – compiled from various sources (August 2003)
Social landscape
Trends
• Net generation– Self-sufficiency– Seamlessness– Abundance
• Library– Increasingly called to
define value against the Amazoogle horizon
– Opportunity and challenge
SocialSocial
TechnicalTechnical
Research & learning
LibraryLibrary
The economic landscape The economic landscape The economic landscape The economic landscape The economic landscape The economic landscape The economic landscape The economic landscape The economic landscape The economic landscape The economic landscape The economic landscape The economic landscape The economic landscape The economic landscape The economic landscape The economic landscape The economic landscape The economic landscape The economic
EconomicEconomic
• Changes in “funding of the public good”– Normal cycles or permanent changes?
• Sources of library / education funds
• Uses of library funds– Resource
allocations– Trends, shifts
Economiclandscape
Library spending
U.S., Japan, U.K., Italy and France represent
nearly 75% of the total estimated 2000 worldwide
library spending
$29 billion
LibEcon (August 2003)LibEcon (August 2003)
Uses of library funds
Staff 53%Staff 53%
Materials stock27%
Materials stock27%
Other17%
Other17%
eContent/subscriptions 3%eContent/subscriptions 3%
ARL libraries2001-02
46%46%33%33%
14%14% 7%7%
Worldwide average for libraries in sample countries 2000-01
LibEcon (August 2003); ARL (2003)LibEcon (August 2003); ARL (2003)
Trends
• Questioning the value of the public good– Education– Public services
• Need for evidence of value
SocialSocial
EconomicEconomic
Research & learning
LibraryLibrary
The technical landscape The technical landscape The technical landscape The technical landscape The technical landscape The technical landscape The technical landscape The technical landscape The technical landscape The technical landscape The technical landscape The technical landscape The technical landscape The technical landscape The technical landscape The technical landscape The technical landscape The technical landscape The technical landscape The technical landscape The technical
TechnicalTechnical
Technology landscape
• A non-Library technology review
Where we looked and who we consulted:– Technology periodicals / publications– Leading technology vendors– Top technology analysts
Trends
• Ambient connectivity and embedded computation
• Unplug and play
• Coping with abundance
• Open source
• Convenience vs privacy
A new era – ambient and embedded
Adapted from: Gartner Inc. 2003Adapted from: Gartner Inc. 2003
Ambient and embedded
• In an electronically nomadicised world I have become a two-legged terminal, an ambulatory IP address, maybe even a wireless router in an ad hoc mobile network.
• Those who just want a simpler life may choose to unplug, and to live off the grid in Idaho. But for this particular early 21st Century nodular subject, disconnection would be amputation. I am part of the networks and the networks are part of me. … I am visible to Google. I link therefore I am.
Unplug and play
Common services
Content services
Application services
Presentation services
The User
•Software “pieces”
•Web services
•Distributed
•Software “pieces”
•Web services
•Distributed
OCLC Research (August 2003)OCLC Research (August 2003)
•Google API
•Amazon API• In 2002, 6.2% of
Amazon revenues, or $246 million, came from using Web services to become an e-commerce platform.
•Google API
•Amazon API• In 2002, 6.2% of
Amazon revenues, or $246 million, came from using Web services to become an e-commerce platform.
How to organize a newabundance?
Role of library approaches?
Hype or Hope?
“How close are we to the Semantic Web that Tim Berners-Lee describes? Yes, and my American garage door talks to my Belgian toaster, and they agree I am hungry. Great idea. I think it will take a long time to realize, and that we will go through several generation of enabling technologies before we find ones that are suitable to actually get the job done.”
—Herbert Van de Sompel
Salton’s Home Hub
2004 Consumer Electronic Show
SocialSocial
TechnicalTechnical
LibraryLibrary
Research & learning landscape Research & learning landscape Research & learning landscape Research & learning landscape Research & learning landscape Research & learning landscape Research & learning landscape Research & learning landscape Research & learning landscape Research & learning landscape Research & learning landscape Research & learning landscape Research & learning landscape Research & learning
EconomicEconomic
Research &
learning
Research & learning landscape
• Changing pattern of research and learning behaviours– …
• Changing patterns of scholarly communication
• Lifelong learning trends
• The need for place– Social exchange
Learning for work
Learn, adapt, change
• In 2001, US$23 billion
• In Fortune’s 100 fastest growing companies, 2 of top 10 are e-learning companies
• $400 million in Asia Pacific by 2005
oclc taskforce on elearning
• Diffusion of information skills and use through the learning process
• Life cycle management of learning materials
• Systems interaction between library and learning management systems
Picture courtesy Dan Rehak, Carnegie Mellon University
?
Scholarly information flow
peer-reviewed journals
publish, discovery discovery, linking, embedding
discovery, linking, embeddingdiscovery, harvestingAggregators
Learning & teaching
Researchand e-science
Picture adapted from Liz LyonPicture adapted from Liz Lyon
Conferences, abstracting and indexing services, etc.
validation
RepositoriesData creation, capture and gathering, lab experiments fieldwork, surveys, grids media…
harvesting
Courses, modules, learning management systems, learning portals…
Data analysis, transformation,
mining, modelingLearning object creation, reuse
deposit, self archiving deposit, self archiving
• Complex– Resource management– Personal, institutional, other– relationships
• A service and role question
SocialSocial
EconomicEconomic
TechnicalTechnical
Research & learning
The library landscape The library landscape The library landscape The library landscape The library landscape The library landscape The library landscape The library landscape The library landscape The library landscape The library landscape The library landscape The library landscape The library landscape The library landscape The library landscape The library landscape The library landscape The library landscape The library landscape The library landscape The
LibraryLibrary
Interviews“Libraries should reallocate positions to newer kinds of jobs: digital scholarship, open source projects, etc.”
“Librarians cannot change user behavior and so need to meet the user.”
Interviews
“Paper content is being moved off-site to make room for things like cafes and information commons, but what stays and what goes? We do not have good tools for these decisions.”
“The idea of the balanced—but unread—collection is disappearing.”
Collections grid
high low
low
high
stewardship
uni
que
ne
ssBooksJournalsNewspapersGov. docsCD, DVDMapsScores
Special collectionsRare booksLocal/Historical newspapersLocal history materialsArchives & Manuscripts, Theses & dissertations
Research and learning materials •ePrints/tech reports•Learning objects•Courseware•E-portfolios•Research data
Freely-accessible web resourcesOpen source softwareNewsgroup archives
Some issues
Mainstreaming special collectionsEngagement with research and learningGrant funding
Mainstreaming special collectionsEngagement with research and learningGrant funding
Does structure of costs reflect new roles?Reallocation of resources?
Does structure of costs reflect new roles?Reallocation of resources?
Digital resource management .Skills
Digital resource management .Skills
Application architecture
Common services
Content services
Application services
Presentation services
The User
I’m looking for something through my
library’s portal.
OCLC Research (August 2003)OCLC Research (August 2003)
Directory: ILL policy
Directory: ILL policy
Application architecture
Common services
Content services
Application services
Presentation services
The User
AuthenticationAuthentication
Directory: user profile
Directory: user profile
Query brokerQuery broker
Directory: service description
Directory: service description
Reference dbReference db
Request brokerRequest broker
Circ/ILL systemCirc/ILL systemOpenURL resolverOpenURL resolver
Directory: local knowledge base
Directory: local knowledge base
Article dbArticle db
OCLC Research (August 2003)OCLC Research (August 2003)
Interconnected library environment
• More complex library systems environment– ILS, portal, resource sharing, resolver, digital asset
management, …
• More complex institutional systems environment– Learning management system, university portal,
local government portal, …
• Growing use of shared services– Directory, identity management, trust
management, …
And …And …
SocialSocial
EconomicEconomic
TechnicalTechnical
Research & learning
LibraryLibrary
Trends & implications
Technology
Library
Economic
Social
OCLC
Research
public good
e-learning
e-commerce
seamless
Web servicesrights management
Open-source
self-sufficient
collaboration
search
global membership
• A turning point
• Engagement with research, learning and living in new ways
• Create value
• Skills and values
www.oclc.org/membership/escan
Read the full reportRead the full report
Print copies available at same URL$15 to cover print and postage
The pattern is new …
The knowledge imposes a pattern and falsifies
For the pattern is new in every moment
The knowledge imposes a pattern and falsifies
For the pattern is new in every moment