NPRR351 Look-Ahead SCED Update

Sai Moorty/Hailong HuiERCOT

METFOctober 26, 2012

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Outlines

• Short Term Load Forecast (STLF) Inputs & Processing• RTD VS SCED Summary for Study Period 09/24/2012-10/21/2012

– GTBD and System Lambda Mean Absolute Error (MAE)– Load Zones LMP MAE– GTBD Error for Interval 6– System Lambda Error for Interval 6

• RTD VS SCED Price Spikes Analysis for Interval 6– On 09/24/2012, RTD had false price spike around $4000/MWh

at Interval Ending (IE) 22:05 due to RTD shutdown profiling logic– On 09/27/2012, SCED had price spikes at SWCAP at IE 11:50

due to unit forced outage and RTD didn’t see it– On 10/10/2012, RTD had false price spikes at $4501/MWh at IE

17:05 and $4000/MWh at IE17:10.

METFOctober 26, 2012

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Short Term Load Forecast (STLF) Inputs & Processing

• STLF Uses the Neural Network Algorithm.

• STLF runs every 5 minutes with 15 seconds offset, e.g. HH:05:15.

• STLF reads the each load area (SOUTHERN,WEST,COAST,NORTH,

EAST, SOUTH_C,FAR_WEST,NORTH_C) instantaneous load value from SCADA every 4 seconds over current 5 minute interval and calculates the 5 minute average value of actual load at the end of the current interval. (LFC calculates the load area actual load value and writes to SCADA every 4 seconds and STLF simply reads the data from SCADA).

• STLF uses the last two hours 5-minute interval actual load (5 minute average) to forecast current interval + next 11 intervals forecast.

• STLF looks at previous day profile (actual – 5 minute average load) for load shape. If it is Monday, STLF looks at last week Thursday profile and if it is Saturday it looks at last week Saturday & Friday profile. If it is Sunday it looks at Saturday profile.

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RTD VS SCED Summary: GTBD and System Lambda MAE

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RTD VS SCED Summary: Load Zones LMP MAE

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RTD VS SCED Summary: GTBD Error (Interval 6)

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RTD VS SCED Summary: System Lambda Error (Interval 6)

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RTD VS SCED GTBD and System lambda for OD 24SEP2012

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SCED GTBD and System Lambda for OD 24SEP2012

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RTD VS SCED GTBD and System lambda for OD 27SEP2012

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SCED GTBD and System Lambda for OD 27SEP2012

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RTD VS SCED GTBD and System lambda for OD 10OCT2012

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SCED GTBD and System Lambda for OD 10OCT2012

METFOctober 26, 2012