Transcript of Nov. 7, 2013 Mann Library Chat in the Stacks Book Talk Chris Barrett, Wendy Wolford, Sam Crowell and...
- Slide 1
- Nov. 7, 2013 Mann Library Chat in the Stacks Book Talk Chris
Barrett, Wendy Wolford, Sam Crowell and Joanna Upton
- Slide 2
- Food systems successes in 1940s-80s enabled dramatic poverty
reduction and improved standards of living Today >6(~5) bn
people have adequate calories (macro- and micro-nutrients), up from
only about 2 billion 50 years ago. Successes enabled population
growth, urbanization, income growth and poverty reduction over the
Long Peace of the late 20 th century and induced a dangerous
complacency. Background
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- Complacency led to underinvestment. Food output growth slowed
relative to demand growth. Result: higher food prices and spikes.
OECD/IFPRI/FAO all forecast food prices 5-20% higher than 2012
levels for the next decade as demand growth continues to outpace
supply expansion worldwide. Background
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- High Food Prices Associated w/ Social Unrest High food prices
associated w/ social unrest/ food riots But omitted factors matter
a lot in this association. And most countries that suffer high food
prices dont experience any violence. Social unrest Source: Lagi et
al. (2011) Food Prices and Food Riots (Death Tolls) Food security
worries can spark public protest when mixed with a sense of broader
injustices.
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- High Food Prices Also Spark Resource Grabs High food prices
also spur and reflect demand for land, water, genetic material,
etc. Land grabs can help sow domestic discontent Ex: Madagascar
2008/9 Resource grabs can feed other international tensions, too:
-Marine fisheries -Water -Gene grabs/IP anti-commons Social
unrest
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- The food security-sociopolitical stability relationship remains
poorly understood and oversimplified. Inferential challenge:
Correlated common drivers (e.g., climate) make it difficult to
tease out causal links. Sociopolitical crisis is clearly a cause of
food insecurity (e.g., Somalia, DRC) but it increasingly seems a
consequence as well. Dont really need more causes to seek peace.
But do need extra push for food security investments. Especially
important b/c key food security stressors include govt, firm and
donor policy responses intended to foster food security, but that
also have important, adverse spillover effects. An unclear
relationship
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- There are 4 main pathways by which food security might impact
sociopolitical stability: 1.Food price spikes and urban unrest:
Spontaneous (largely- urban) sociopolitical instability due to food
price shocks, with urban food consumers the primary agitators. But
price shocks largely proximate, not root, causes of sociopolitical
unrest. Sources are pre-existing grievances and lack of adequate
social safety nets or government policies to buffer the effects of
market shocks. High prices can unite/mobilize the already-angry vs.
the state or ethnic minorities (e.g., food traders) perceived to
hold/exercise power unjustly. Food plays more a symbolic/subjective
than a substantive role. Less about the economic impacts on the
poor, than the psycho-social ones of disrupting trust among the
middle class. 4 key pathways
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- 2.Intensified competition for rural resources: Slower-evolving,
structural pressures due to (largely rural) intra- and inter- state
resource competition over land, water, fisheries, labor, capital
and the byproducts of such competition (e.g., chaotic internal
migration, outbreaks of zoonoses, etc). Farmers/farm workers the
main agitators, although international NGOs/ firms are important
external agents (e.g., over GMOs, land grabs, etc.). Typically
unrest about distributional questions and power. More likely to
mutate into social and/or guerilla movements than is urban unrest
from price shocks. Exploitable by pre-existing opposition
movements. 4 key pathways There are 4 main pathways by which food
security might impact sociopolitical stability:
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- 3.Improving technologies and technical efficiency:
Historically, technical change has permitted supply expansion
without intensified competition for resources. Growing disparities
in rates of technical change in agriculture. Investment is least
where yield gaps and anticipated demand growth are greatest.
Dramatic changes in the competitive landscape especially as
intellectual property regimes increasingly impede rather than
foster progress. Controversial (GM) technologies create new areas
of contestation Technological change is no panacea. But there seem
few options for progress without re-acceleration of agricultural
technological change, especially in Africa and Asia. 4 key pathways
There are 4 main pathways by which food security might impact
sociopolitical stability:
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- 4.Policy interventions to temporarily augment supply: States
address pressures through policies that reallocate food across time
(buffer stock releases), space (trade barriers), or people (social
protection). These often have unintended, beggar-thy-neighbor
consequences. None of these policies increases food supply; they
merely reallocate it. Commonly exports the food security stress to
other (sub)populations. Breed dangerous complacency by suggesting
that quick fixes can substitute for longer-term, structural
investments to enable supply growth to keep pace with demand
expansion. Need social protection closely coupled with productivity
growth. 4 key pathways There are 4 main pathways by which food
security might impact sociopolitical stability:
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- The reasonable hypothesis that food insecurity can spark
sociopolitical unrest adds a key reason to redouble efforts to
stimulate ag productivity growth coupled with effective social
protection measures. But must focus on Africa and Asia! Food or
consequences
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- Overview (Barrett) Global food economy (Rosegrant et al)
Climate (Cane & Lee) Thematic chapters: Land (Deininger)
Freshwater resources (Lall) Marine resources (McClanahan et al.)
Crop techs (McCouch & Crowell) Livestock techs (McDermott et
al.) Labor migration (McLeman) Trade (Anderson) Humanitarian
assistance (Maxwell) Geographic chapters: Latin America (Wolford
& Nehring) Sub-Saharan Africa (Barrett & Upton) M.East /
N.Africa (Lybbert&Morgan) W.Asia/EC Europe (Swinnen&Herck)
South Asia (Agrawal) China (Christiaensen) East Asia (Timmer) 18
chapters by leading international experts New Book on Topic
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- Crop technologies What is a crop technology ? Food Fiber Feed
Fuel Agronomics DNA Computers Imaging...etc! + In the context of
food security
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- Crop technologies Agronomic technologies Management of soil,
water, planting, spacing, fertilization, weed management Biological
(genetic) technologies Classical breeding, hybrid breeding,
genomics- assisted breeding, genetic engineering **2.3 billion
people depend on income derived from small farms (
- Crop technologies Pardey et al., 2006 Post-Green Revolution 90%
of global agricultural research is conducted in developed countries
Private sector accounts for >1/2 of these R&D expenditures
Focus has shifted away from crops that are important in the
developing world, towards proprietary technologies
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- Agronomic technologies Management of soil, water, planting,
spacing, fertilization, weed management Genetic (biological)
technologies Classical breeding, hybrid breeding, genomics-
assisted breeding, genetic engineering Intellectual Property (IP)
Protection Plant Variety Protection (PVP), Utility Patents, sui
generis systems Crop technologies
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- Genetic engineering (biotechnology) Introduces new traits
quickly and efficiently. Genetic modification (GM) uses
Agrobacterium tumefaciens, a naturally occurring bacteria that
randomly insert DNA (genes) into plant chromosomes. Subject to
utility patents without disclosure of the technology used to
generate the variety. Since 1996 global production increased
94-fold, from 1.7M to 160M ha. Fastest adoption of crop technology
in history. 99% of GM crops are soybean, maize, cotton and canola
with 2 traits: Insect resistance (Bt) Herbicide resistance (Roundup
Ready) 90% of farmers (16.7M) in developing world on < 2ha land.
7M farmers in China grow Bt cotton on ~0.5 ha 7M farmers in India
grow Bt cotton on ~1.5 ha
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- The 2007 2008 Price Increases hit Latin America hard Latin
America Source: Cuesta and Jaramillo 2009: 7
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- Latin America Haitian rioters block a street in downtown Port
au Prince while Brazilian UN peacekeepers look on. Photo: Kena
Betancur Source: The Guardian, April 9 2008 Protesters march
through Port-au- Prince in April 2008 to demand the government to
lower the price of basic commodities. Photo by Nick Whalen-IPS
Source: http- //www.ipsnews.net/200 9/01/haiti-new-
peasant-alliance- demands-action-on- food-crisis/
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- Key Characteristics The Context of the Crisis Latin America
Strong agricultural sector but bi-modal with a highly productive
agro-industrial sector geared towards export and a peasant sector
on small plots producing for subsistence and local markets Source:
World Bank's Data Bank: World Development Indicators and Global
Development Finance, 2012. Source: Martinez et al 2009: 36
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- Key Arguments from Case Studies Latin America Disaggregate
conflict Spontaneous protests around consumption vs. sustained
mobilization around production Food protests or riots are not just
about food: situate in longer, context-specific moral economies
Social mobilization has improved food security in Latin America:
Mobilization, protest and instability are often threats
particularly for those who approve of the status quo
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- Social Mobilization and Food Security Latin America Brazil:
Landless Workers Movement (MST) Ecuador: Pueblo Kayambi, Canasta
Comunitaria, CONAIE Mexico: Zapatista Movement, National
Confederation of Indigenous Peoples, Bolivia: Cocaleros Peru:
CONACAMI A host of national initiatives, including cash transfer
programs, school food programs, nationalized grocery stores
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- Social Mobilization and Food Security Latin America
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- Membership in La Via Campesina Latin America Source:
www.viacampesina.org
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- The Movement of Rural Landless Workers - Brazil Latin
America
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- Fome Zero State, Civil Society and Market - Brazil Latin
America
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- Features of the Brazilian Path Latin America Extensive R&D
geared towards private sector development of large-scale
agribusiness chains Land distribution and promotion of small-holder
welfare Implementation of the largest CCT in Latin Americas history
Sustained social mobilization
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- Sub-Saharan Africa Christopher B. Barrett and Joanna B. Upton
Source: Kaiba White (2011) Data sources: World Bank, World Health
Organization, UN Food and Agriculture Organization, UNICEF, UN
Environment Programme/GRID- Europe, US Geological Survey, Center
for International Earth Science Information Network, Armed Conflict
Location and Event Data, World Meteorological Organization, Polity
IV Project, KOF Index of Globalization, World Development
Indicators, Demographic and Health Surveys, Landscan. A composite
vulnerability map of: Climate-related hazard exposure, Population
density, Household and community resilience, and Governance and
violence.
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- Motivation Sub-Saharan Africa bears an unfortunate triple
distinction among world regions, with the highest incidence of:
Undernourishment, ultra-poverty, and conflict-related deaths Leads
to challenges across dimensions of food insecurity (i)Availability
(ii)Access (20% < $0.62/day; 65% of worlds ultra-poor) Extreme
diversity (between regions & countries) => highly variable
problems and no one-size-fits-all solution Key opportunities are
also key areas for risk and potential conflict Sub-Saharan
Africa
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- Sub-Saharan Africas characteristics create special challenges
for all four pathways by which food security might impact
sociopolitical stability: 1.Food price spikes and urban unrest
-Youth bulge in the growing population (projected to reach 1.1
billion by 2020average age of 20) -Urbanization -largely jobless,
young, increasingly educated and urban population (paradox of the
disaffected) 2. Intensified competition for rural resources
-Opportunity in that SS Africa is land and water abundant (22% of
arable land in use; 13% of irrigable land irrigated) -However,
demand pressures are on the rise, and -Increasing trends toward
land investments (land grabs)which may strike neo-colonial chords
and lead to unrest Sub-Saharan Africa
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- Sub-Saharan Africas characteristics create special challenges
for all four pathways by which food security might impact
sociopolitical stability: 3. Improving technologies and technical
efficiencies -Low productivity (yield gap) and growing working age
population means huge opportunities -However, limited by technical
capacity, extreme poverty (problems with up-take), and political
controversy 4. Policy intervention to temporarily augment supply
-Common practice to regulate prices and/or distribute resources
(food), which always has distributional implications -Governing
capacity weak vis--vis both social protection and productivity
growth Sub-Saharan Africa
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- Looking forwardto fraught opportunities Demand Side: -Incidence
of poverty on the decline (though still the largest in the world,
and uneven between countries and regions) -Population growth +
rapid urbanization => increasing reliance on poor infrastructure
-Communication infrastructure improving... Sub-Saharan Africa
Supply Side: -Land and water abundance -Investments could be an
opportunityunder certain (unlikely?) conditions -Productivity gap
-Four potential pathways: irrigation, soil fertility management,
livestock production, GMOs -Demographic trends =>increased labor
and technical innovation?
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- Looking forwardto fraught opportunities Total Factor
Productivity growth is key -Minimize the problem of the food price
dilemma; help producers and consumers simultaneously Government
capacity, particularly in: -Prioritizing productivity growth
-Creating opportunities for the young working-aged population
-Managing foreign investment (transparency, distributional
concerns, production priorities) -Social protection and safety nets
for the ultra-poor, in particular the disaffected Sub-Saharan
Africa
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- Thank you for your time and interest