Next Generation Missile DefenseTargets and Threats

Mark A. ClarkDirector

Missile and Space Intelligence Center

August 8th: On This Date in History…

Montenegro declares war on Germany

Great Britain and Russia sign trade agreement

President Truman signs the United Nations Charter

USSR establishes a communist government in North Korea

The U.S. and South Korea initiate a mutual security pact

U.N. Secretary-General announces a cease-fire between Iran and Iraq

The “Good ‘ole Days” ???

21st Century Ballistic Missiles

• Can reach targets inaccessible to aircraft

• Fastest launch-to-target stand-off weapons

• Prestige, profit, coercion, deterrence, and warfighting roles

• Traditional role of long-range missiles is nuclear deterrence• Remains a major role; expanding to more countries

• Improved guidance allows effective use in conventional roles• Counter adversary airpower and deny regional access

• Ballistic missiles increasingly “non-ballistic”• Hypersonic glide vehicles

• Maneuvering reentry vehicles

• The term “ballistic” may go away

Hierarchy of Needsfrom the Perspective of a Ballistic Missile Designer

Survivability(Countermeasures)

Range

Accuracy

Effectiveness(Warhead Effects)

Proliferation of SCUD Missiles and Technology

IraqSCUD B

Al Hussein

SyriaSCUD BSCUD C

EgyptSCUD B

PakistanGhauri

LibyaSCUD B

IranSCUD B

Shahab 1/2/3Qiam-1

UAESCUD B

YemenBurkan

ArmeniaBelarus

KazakhstanUkraine

SCUD B

VietnamSCUD B

AfghanistanSCUD B

USSRSCUD B1950s

North KoreaNo DongSCUD CSCUD B

Recent Ballistic Missile Proliferation

Irrefutable evidence that Iran provided ballistic missiles and other weapons to Yemen

Iranian Materiel Display at Joint Base Anacostia-Bolling

Russia

• Maintains a large land and sea based missile force

• Large ballistic missile modernization investment

• New START constrained force–1,550 warheads

• Several new longer-range missiles in development

Russia

• Kinzhal “Dagger” air-launched ballistic missile (ALBM) launched from MiG-31

• ICBM force growing• Mobility, survivability, BMD

countermeasures• New, highly accurate missiles with

conventional warfighting roles

China

• Improving capabilities

• Accuracy, payloads, range

• Placed satellites in orbit

• Experience applicable to ICBM development

Iran

North Korea

•Deterrence, warfighting, prestige, profit

•Multiple recent IRBM and ICBM launches

•Developing more solid propellant ballistic missiles

•No missile tests since Nov ‘17

Cruise/Hypersonic Cruise Missiles

Cruise missiles

• Tech proliferation despite international control efforts

• Anti-ship Cruise Missile (ASCM)

– Naval concern, influence shipping lanes, threaten carriers

– Pre-launch: targeting from aircraft/OTH sensor data

– Post-launch: onboard seeker acquires & guides to target

– Faster, stealthier, & more accurate than predecessors

• Land-attack Cruise Missile (LACM) –Pre-programmed & autonomous

– INS paired w/ SATNAV, contour-matching radar, or optical-scene-matching systems

–Low altitudes, treated with RCS/IR signature reducing materials

–New propulsion, navigation, & seeker technologies improve long-range accuracy & lethality

Hypersonic cruise missiles

• India and Russia developing

Brahmos-II

• 165 NM range

• Mach 7 speed

• Scramjet engine propulsion

Russian Kh-101

Brahmos-II

Chinese Cruise Missile

Higher Technology Means More Effective: Or Does It???

Effectiveness

Level of Technology

While designing against modern, technically sophisticated threats, we must also be prepared to engage older,

unsophisticated threats.

Dinosaurs Have Not Stopped Roaming the Earth

The Challenge for the Missile Defense Community

• Be prepared to engage and defeat the technologically advanced threats being developed by our adversaries in the 21st century

Numerous

Fast-paced

Technically Challenging

• Continue to ensure U.S. and Allied defenses are effective against 50+ year old systems, sometimes with modern upgrades

Intelligence support is more important than ever!

2017 Ballistic and Cruise Missile Threat

Unclassified report available at:

www.nasic.af.mil

Produced by the:Defense Intelligence Ballistic Missile Analysis Committee

(DIBMAC)