Post on 14-May-2015
New Mega Trends Macro to Micro Opportunities on Future
Business, Cultures and Personal Lives
Phil Howarth, Partner
Agenda
• Introduction and Definition of Mega Trends
• Presentation of Top Mega Trends of the Future
1. Urbanisation : Mega Cities, Mega Regions, Mega Corridors
2. “Smart” is the New Green
3. Social Trends: Generation Y
4. Beyond “The BRICS”
5. Connectivity and Convergence
6. Innovating to Zero !
7. Health, Wellness and Wellbeing
• Key Strategic Conclusions
Definition of a Mega Trend
What is a Mega Trend? Impact of Mega Trends on Key
Organisational Functions
Mega Trends are global, sustained
and macro economic forces of
development that impact business,
economy, society, cultures and
personal lives thereby defining our
future world and its increasing pace
of change
Marketing and
Strategy
R&D Budget
Spending
Competitive Benchmarking
Product Planning
and Development
Technology Planning
Innovation Scouting
What were the Top Mega Trends in 2000?
• China as an Emerging Super Power
• Internet Retail and E-Commerce
• From Industrial to Information Society
• Outsourcing as a Business Model
Mega Trend 1:
Urbanisation - “City as a Customer”
Mega Cities Mega
Regions
Mega Slums Mega
Corridor
Cities, and Not Countries, Will Drive Wealth Creation In the Future
Cities like Seoul, Budapest and Bogota account for 50% of the country’s GDP;
Gauteng will account for roughly 40% of South Africa’s GDP by 2020
What are the Micro Implications? New Products and Solutions
High Economic Power
Hub and Spoke Business Model
Transit oriented development
New Mobility Solutions
City as a Customer
From Cities Designed around Cars, Cars Are Designed around Mega Cities - BMW i3 and i8 Megacity Vehicles
Autonomous Parking
Assistance
Traffic Jam Assistance Range Assist
Pro-active Collision
Warning Pure Electric, Zero Emission
Voice Recognition
Panoramic Roof
Carbon Fibre Reinforced Plastic
Plug In Hybrid, 1.5L 3 Cylinder Gasoline, 66 g/km
Aluminium Chassis
BMW i3 Electric City Car
BMW i8 Plug In Hybrid Sports Car
Smartphone App based remote vehicle
management (in-house app development)
Rapid Charging
Opening up iDrive API to third
party app developers
Investment in app companies that
provide mobility related apps
Multimodal Transport & EV related app – includes dynamic intermodal transport planning
Urbanisation in Africa
Lagos+Eko Atlantic City
16.3 Million People
Luanda & Dar Es Salaam • 2020, Luanda is expected to grow from
4.7 million in 2010 to over 8 million by 2025 forming a mega-city
of high population density and commercial activity
Abidjan – Accra – Lagos & North South Corridors • Transport routes across the region will be
expanded and integrated to create corridors for trade and inter-
-continental co-operation by linking mega-cities
Lagos and Eko Atlantic City Region • Lagos’s Eko Atlantic City will merge with
the city of Lagos to form a future business gateway to Africa – a
mega-region of over 16 million
Cairo
Cape Town
Luanda
Ouagadougou
Accra
Abidjan
African Cities will increase by 25% by 2025; at an average growth rate of 3.4%,
1.2 billion people, 60% of Africa’s population, will be urbanised by 2050
Growth of African Cities % increase, 2010- 2025 forecast
0 20 40 60 80 100
Cape Town
Johannesburg
Durban
Cairo
Casablanca
Algiers
Alexandria
Douala
Accra
Ibadan
Lagos
Dakar
Abidjan
Addis Ababa
Luanda
Kinshasa
Nairobi
Dar es Salaam
Data Source: Africa Progress Report, 2010
Algiers
Dar es Salaam
Alexandria
Nairobi
Casablanca
Accra
Abidjan
Addis Ababa
Dakar
Ibadan
Douala
Cape Town
Durban
5.6 million
3.6 million
4.1 million
4.3 million
3.2 million
3.1 million
4.7 million
6.2 million
6.2 million
3.8 million
3.2 million
3.5 million
6.3million
Luanda 8 million
Migration Urban Population, 2025 Mega City population, 2025
Siemens Focuses on “City as the Customer”
Rail Systems
Mobility & Logistics
Low & Medium Voltage
Smart Grid
Building Technologies
OSRAM
Integrated Competencies into One Division Pre- October 2011 Siemens’ Sectors
Infrastructure &
Cities
Post-October 2011
“City as the Customer” Energy
Healthcare
Industry
Mega Trend 2:
Smart is the New Green
Convergence of Technology Will Lead to Convergence of Competition
Telecom Players
IT Players
Energy/Infrastructure Players
Automation/Building Control Players
Note: This is an illustration and does not show all market players
Point of Convergence
Verizon
O2
Deutsche Telekom
Cisco
IBM
Schneider Electric
Alcatel-Lucent
Senergy
Eaton Siemens
General Electric
ABB Emerson
Honeywell
Rockwell Automation
Johnson Controls
SAP
HP ST Electronics
Oracle
Microsoft
Mega Trend 3:
Social Trends
Gen Y Geo Socialization
“She-conomy”
Ageing Population
Reverse Brain Drain
Middle Bulge
Generational Political Shift
Surge in Asian Work
Pool
0.36 0.44
0.14 0.07 0.13
0.33 0.22
0.37
0.63
0.22 0.13 0.26
0.44
0.51
0.33
0.19
0.21
0.11
0.23
0.47 0.57
0.07
0.47
0.12
0.07
0.22
0.09
0.16
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
1.2
1.4
1.6
1.8
2
Africa Rest of Asia Latin America, Caribbean and
Oceania
North America Europe India China
Po
pu
lati
on
in B
illio
n
65 Years and Above 35-64 15-34 0-14
1.69
2.56
2.1
1.2
Global Population in 2020: Out of 2.56 Billion Population
Between 15-34 Years - Around 61% from Asia Alone
Source: US Census Bureau, 2010 and Department of Economic and Social Affairs of the United Nations
2010 2020 World Population: Breakdown by Region (Global), 2020
1.81
2.24
2.25
0.53
6.83 Billion
7.55 Billion
Population in Billions
Around 37% of 15-34
Population Will Live in
India and China Alone in
2020
Personalization and Individualization
Techno Savvy and Connected 24 X 7
Civic and Environmentally
Friendly
Demanding and Impatient – “Fast and the Furious”
Personalized Search and News
Social Networking Profiles
Personalized Products
Gaming Gizmos
Smart Phones
Facebook-on-the Move
Microblogs
Eco- Transport
Bag-For-Life (Paper Bags Instead of Plastic)
Paperless Banking
Instant Text Messaging
Instant Chat
Speed Oriented Gaming (Car Racing)
Generation Y: Goods and Services Catered to Values, Beliefs, Interest
and Lifestyle
Mega Trend 4:
Economic Trends
The Next Game Changers in 2025
$2,827 Billion
$5,437 Billion
$1,098 Billion
$811 Billion
$1,167 Billion $2,441
Billion
$653 Billion $6,235
Billion
$38,526 Billion
$6,189 Billion
$772 Billion $323
Billion
$483 Billion
Mexico Brazil
Argentina
Egypt
South Africa
Turkey
Poland
India
China
Russia
Indonesia
Thailand
Vietnam
Philippines
BRIC Nations
Next Game Changers
Note : The figure denotes GDP at market prices. Forecasts to 2025 have been extrapolated based on Nominal GDP growth rate projections .
$4,816 Billion
Country Comparison for Economic Diversity and Export Strength (Africa), 2010
The African Game Changers – Economic Diversification
Algeria
Angola
Congo, Dem. Rep.
Congo, Rep.
Cote d'Ivoire
Egypt
Ethiopia
Ghana Guinea Kenya
Madagascar
Morocco
Mozambique
Namibia
Nigeria
Rwanda
Senegal
Sierra Leone
South Africa
Sudan
Tanzania
Tunisia
Uganda
Zambia
-500
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
20.0 30.0 40.0 50.0 60.0 70.0 80.0 90.0
Exp
ort
Str
en
gth
: P
er
Cap
ita E
xp
ort
s (
US
$)
Economic Diversity: Manufacturing and Services Value Added (% of GDP)
Oil Producers
(Primary
sector
contributes to
largest share
of GDP and
exports)
Diversified
In Transition
Highly
dependant on
primary sector
Note: Bubble Size Denotes GDP Per Capita (Current US$)
Mega Trend 5:
Connectivity & Convergence
10 Connected Devices for Every Household by 2020
5 billion internet users by 2020
5 connected devices for every user by 2020
500 devices with unique digital IDs (Internet of things) per square kilometre by 2020
80 Billion Connected Devices By 2020
SPACE JAM: New Satellites Launched By 2020: Over 900 Satellites to Be Launched Globally This Decade Creating Multiple Innovative Applications
By 2020, there will be
approximately 927 Satellites
(Communication – 405; Earth
Observation – 151; Navigation
– 85; Reconnaissance – 212
and R&D 75)
Automobile Navigation
and Intelligent Traffic
Control System
Applications
Galileo - intended to
provide more precise
measurements than GPS
or GLONASS
China developing Beidou
Commercial market will be
driven by broadcast; Mobile
Satellite Services (MSS); voice
and data applications,
bundling IPTV
GNSS Enabled Applications:
• Navigation (Civil, Military)
• Broadband Internet and
Wireless Network
• GNSS based medical
monitoring and drug delivery
system
• Automated guidance of
machines, real-time structure
monitoring, logistics and site
management
Africa will experience a 530% increase in international bandwidth through undersea fibre cables by 2020
`
Egypt (North Africa) • Landings points for SEA-ME-WE 4 and EIG • SEACOM traffic is routed on SEA-ME-WE via Egypt •Investments in IT hosting services and BPO will leverage redundant bandwidth routes from multiple cables • Egypt will become a key international hub for international data carriers
Kenya (East Africa) • Investments in VoIP will benefit from cheaper
bandwidth • East Africa will be home to 40% of Africa’s
contact centres • Cheaper bandwidth and growing skill base to
boost ICT BPO services • Abundant bandwidth will present investment
opportunities for providers of rich media services such as IPTV in East Africa
Nigeria, Ghana and Senegal (West Africa) • IPTV will be a key investment opportunity for ISPs and TV broadcasters in west Africa • A high population in Nigeria will present investment opportunity in community based social media • Demand for better mobile voice and broadband quality will present investment opportunities for solution vendors
South Africa • ISPs will leverage elaborate support infrastructure and
reliable electricity supply to invest in hosted services • South Africa will be home to 60% of Africa’s ICT data centre
and cloud computing platforms • ISPs and TV broadcasters will invest US$10 billion in IPTV
delivery systems • International data carriers will leverage South Africa’s
position to invest in IP transit networks for Southern Africa countries
US$ 4,000 million investment by 13 undersea cable providers will result in a 90% decline in the wholesale cost of international bandwidth
2020
2010
Undersea Fibre Bandwidth
10,600 Gbps 56,200Gbps
Five new satellite companies using Ka band medium earth orbit satellites
2020
2010
Satellite Bandwidth
10Gbps
100Gbps
6,400 Gbps
9,600 Gbps
5,460 Gbps
19,700 Gbps
6,400 Gbps 16,200 Gbps
12,800 Gbps
26,100 Gbps
Virtual World 2020: 3D Simulated Environment for Interaction and Experience Impacting Personal Mobility
Virtual Shopping Allowing Customers to Try
Products without leaving their homes
Virtual Classes and Laboratories and
Daily 3D Field Trips
to Different Countries and Planets
Virtual Surgeries
and Medical Training Virtual Business Conferences
Social Networking: 3D Avatars
Enabling People to Lead Multiple
Lives
Mega Trend 6:
Innovating to Zero
Snapshot of a “Zero Concept” World in 2020
Zero Emissions from Cars
Zero Accidents
Zero Breaches of
Security
Zero Crime Rates
Zero Waste/ Emissions
Complete Recyclability from
Households (Cradle to Cradle Concept)
Zero Defects and Zero
Faults
Carbon Neutral Factories and Retail Stores
Carbon Neutral Cities
Zero Corporate
Debts
Zero Emails
Innovating to Zero Strategy Examples
Mega Trend 7:
Health, Wellness and Wellbeing
Mood
Stress levels
Mental health
Sense of optimism
Attitude
Security
Safety
Personal values
Personal fulfilment
Self image / self actualisation
Sight / vision
Touch & feel
Smell / breathing
Sound
Temperature
Wellness
The 3 Cornerstones - The Body, Mind and Soul - Contribute To Humans Definition of Health, Wellness and Well Being
Future of Health, Wellness and Wellbeing
Key Strategic Conclusions
1. Mega Trends impact multiple industries. Examine them carefully to optimally develop
medium and long term strategies in current and new markets
2. It is important to understand the eco-system of the Mega Trend, possible convergence
and the elements of the value chain which have most profitability
3. All these trends are global and have global ramifications thereby offering scalable
opportunities
4. These forces are changing rapidly and bringing new competencies into play at half the
life-cycle speed of the past decade
5. Organisations’ need “Mega Trend” champions and teams within their organisation
structure to best exploit the opportunities
6. In Africa we need to particularly understand the opportunities arising locally as a
consequence of global mega trends – e.g. local markets, international markets, as part
of international supply chain
Three Phased Approach To Identify Emerging Opportunities: Robust Methodology to Evaluate Top Mega Trends
MT
MT
MT MT MT
MT
MT
MT MT MT
MT MT
Phase 1
Phase 2
Phase 3
MT MT
MT MT
Mega Trends Presentation or Workshop is the First Step
Final output : Defined short list of the 4 or 5 most market
attractive, easy to implement and high ROI Mega Trend
opportunities
Short list Top 10-15 Mega Trends Which Provide Most Opportunity/Impact to Company
• Short-list 10 most relevant Mega Trends to Company X and create a short profile of each MT
• Prioritize the 5 most relevant MTs for Company X and conduct a top level assessment of these MTs to Company X
• Conduct a detailed assessment of these MTs to Company X with a follow-up workshop or consulting assignment
• Develop tactical business plan and implementation strategy
• Develop a monitoring, evaluation, and optimization strategy
Detailed Assessment (Phase 2) and Tactical Business Plan (Phase 3) Can Take the Form of Consulting Engagement or Follow Up Workshops
Contact Us
Sarwant Singh Partner & Practice Director, Visionary Innovation Research Group and Automotive & Transportation
(+44) 2079157843
sarwant.singh@frost.com
Archana Amarnath Program Manager, Visionary Innovation Research Group
(+44) 2079157893
aamarnath@frost.com
Phil Howarth Partner Africa & Latin America
(+27) 21 680 3269
phil.howarth@frost.com