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Jim Spohrer (IBM)Maastrich, Netherlands – BISS Conference

Wednesday June 22,, 2016http://www.slideshare.net/spohrer/netherlands-biss-20160620-v3

Smarter and Wiser Service Systems:The Building Blocks of Tomorrow

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I have…

Have you noticed how the building blocks just keep getting better?

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Learning to program:My first program

Early Computer Science Class:Watson Center at Columbia 1945

Jim Spohrer’s First Program 1972

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Fast Forward 2016:Consider this…

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Microsoft CaptionBot June 19, 2016

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Microsoft CaptionBot June 20, 2016

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IBM Image Tagging

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IBM Cloud Bluemix:Watson APIs are growing…

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So far (June 2016), 100,000 faculty and students globally given access

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Culture change

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But this stuff is still really hard…

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$5M Prize: for best AI to help uson societal grand challenge problems

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Societal Grand Challenges

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Solving these would mean we are smarter, but would they mean we are wiser?

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Two assertions

• Machines seem to be getting smarter fast.

– Agree/disagree?

• People do not seem to be getting wiser fast.

– Agree/disagree?

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1955 1975 1995 2015 2035 2055

Can better service help us be wiser?

Cognitive Mediator (2035): Tool, Assistant, Collaborator, Coach

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What exists in 2016?

360,000 100,000 120,000 60,000 150,000

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Reality 2.0 Service Platform:polite cognitive mediators (CM1,CM2)

do not interrupt people (P1,P2)

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Service Platform

CM2

P2

CM1

P1

100x

100x 100x

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By 2035, T-Shaped Makers with great Building Blocks and Cognitive Mediators

Empathy & Teamwork

sectorregion/culture

discipline Dept

h

Breadth

STEM

Liberal Arts

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What might Reality 2.0 look like?

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How fast is Reality 2.0 approaching?

What might it look like?

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Computing: Then, Now, Projected

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2035

2055

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Wise Service System:All entities’ in networkuse cognitive mediatorsto enhance value co-creation interactions

Cognitive Mediators:Cognitive systems with deep knowledge of both customer (user) and provider (expert)as co-creators of win-win value

Entity augmentation boosts both creativity and productivity of interactions

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Cognitive Mediatorsfor all people in all roles

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Occupations = Many Tasks

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Watson Discovery Advisor

Simonite, T. 2014. Software Mines Science Papers to Make New Discoveries. MIT. November 25, 2014.URL: http://m.technologyreview.com/news/520461/software-mines-science-papers-to-make-new-discoveries/

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User Models

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Courses• 2015

– “How to build a cognitive system for Q&A task.”– 9 months to 40% question answering accuracy– 1-2 years for 90% accuracy, which questions to reject

• 2025– “How to use a cognitive system to be a better professional X.”– Tools to build a student level Q&A from textbook in 1 week

• 2035– “How to use your cognitive mediator to build a startup.”– Tools to build faculty level Q&A for textbook in one day– Cognitive mediator knows a person better than they know themselves

• 2055– “How to manage your workforce of digital workers.”– Most people have 100 digital workers.

“The best way to predict the future is to inspire the next generation of students to build it better”

Digital Natives Transportation Water Manufacturing

Energy Construction ICT Retail

Finance Healthcare Education Government

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In Summary

“A service scienceperspective considersthe evolving ecology of service system entities, their value co-creation andcapability co-elevationinteractions, and their capabilities, constraints,rights, and responsibilities.”

Cognitive SystemsEntities

Service SystemsEntities With

CognitiveMediators

Add Rights &Responsibilities

Assisting individuals and organizations to close their service innovation skills gap

and co-create wiser service systems empowering employees, customers, citizens

with cognitive mediatorsin the collaborative service economy

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Future-Ready T-Shapes

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IBM Research, Patents, Data, Cognitive

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Explain external phenomena

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Explain internal phenomena

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Explainvalue co-creationphenomena

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Physics Chemistry Biology

Neuroscience Psychology ArtificialIntelligence

Engineering Management PublicPolicy

Education Design Humanities

Natural Systems

Cognitive Systems

Service Systems

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Brief History of AI

• 1956 – Dartmouth Conference• 1956 – 1981 Micro-Worlds• 1981 – Japanese 5th Generation• 1988 – Expert Systems Peak• 1990 – AI Winter• 1997 – Deep Blue• 1997 – 2011 Real-World• 2011 – Jeopardy! & SIRI• 2013 – Cognitive Systems Institute• 2014 – Watson Business Unit &• True North Brain Chip• 2015 – “Cognition as a Service”

on IBM Bluemix

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Cognitive Assistants for all occupations are beginning to appear

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Sciences provide…• Frameworks for people to ask and answer

questions systematically• Explanations with instructions on “how to re-do”

Kline: Conceptual Foundation of Multidisciplinary Thinking -“To our children and children’s children, to whom we elders owe an explanation of the worldthat is understandable, realistic, forward-looking, and whole.”

Proenneke:Alone in the Wilderness -To do a thorough testing, should each generationbe required to rapidly rebuildfrom scratch? A re-makers movement?

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The Maker Movement & Open Source Ecology

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Dedication: Doug EngelbartFather of the mouse and

augmentation theory

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Future of Skills

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T-Shaped “Future Ready” Talent

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