National Park Service

Appalachian Highlands Science Learning CenterGreat Smoky Mountains National Park

Climate Change in the NPS and the Smokies

National Park Service

Appalachian Highlands Science Learning CenterGreat Smoky Mountains National Park

Key Points from Jon Jarvis

• Climate Change is the greatest threat to NPS units.

• It IS happening and it IS caused by humans.

• View it as an opportunity to bring us together, causing us to think and act at the landscape scale.

• Opportunity to create more public – private partnerships

Climate Change Flat Hat Chat

National Park Service

Appalachian Highlands Science Learning CenterGreat Smoky Mountains National Park

NPS PrioritiesMitigation

National Park Service

Appalachian Highlands Science Learning CenterGreat Smoky Mountains National Park

Science

National Park Service

Appalachian Highlands Science Learning CenterGreat Smoky Mountains National Park

Adaptation

National Park Service

Appalachian Highlands Science Learning CenterGreat Smoky Mountains National Park

Communication

National Park Service

Appalachian Highlands Science Learning CenterGreat Smoky Mountains National Park

NPS Resources

National Park Service

Appalachian Highlands Science Learning CenterGreat Smoky Mountains National Park

Climate Change Education:What doesn’t Work

• Fear Appeals

• Doomsday Prophecies

• Arbitrarily Balanced Positions

• Technical & Scientific Language

National Park Service

Appalachian Highlands Science Learning CenterGreat Smoky Mountains National Park

• Many Americans think of climate change as a distant problem. National Park Rangers and Interpreters have a unique opportunity to inform, educate, and help Americans connect the dots between global climate change and the United States, through our most prized national landscapes.

• But showing and helping Americans experience the current and projected impacts, should be an especially effective means of education.

Anthony.Leiserowitz@yale.edu

National Park Service

Appalachian Highlands Science Learning CenterGreat Smoky Mountains National Park

• #1 – Tell local, personal stories about our changing landscape

• #2 – Utilize new technology and social media

• #3 – Create a citizen science program

• #4 – Make connections to the economy, to our families, to patriotism; make it personally relevant

• #5 – Create messages of hope!

Source: Dr. Anthony Leiserowitz, Yale

National Park Service

Appalachian Highlands Science Learning CenterGreat Smoky Mountains National Park

Climate Change Impacts in the AppalachiansMore intense precipitation events, extended drought

periods and heat waves

increases in soil erosion, stream sedimentation and wildfires

increases in diseases and insect outbreaks

National Park Service

Appalachian Highlands Science Learning CenterGreat Smoky Mountains National Park

National Park Service

Appalachian Highlands Science Learning CenterGreat Smoky Mountains National Park

What Makes the Smokies So Special?• Unparalleled scenery

– largest sweep of undeveloped upland wilderness in the East

• 16 peaks > 6,000’

• Rugged, varied topography

• 2,000 miles of streams, 900 miles of trails

• Biodiversity hotspot

National Park Service

Appalachian Highlands Science Learning CenterGreat Smoky Mountains National Park

Long-tail Shrew: Species of Concern in NC

Spruce-Fir Moss Spider: Federally Listed Endangered

Species

Red-Cheek Salamander: Smokies Endemic

Saw-Whet Owl: Federal Species of Concern

Photo:Coyle

Photo:Chatfield

Spruce Fir Forest

National Park Service

Appalachian Highlands Science Learning CenterGreat Smoky Mountains National Park

National Park Service

Appalachian Highlands Science Learning CenterGreat Smoky Mountains National Park

More Questions Than Answers

How much rain will we get in the Smokies?

How will more intense storms or longer droughts impact streams and the life within?

Will there be species shift?

Will pollinators lose synchronization with their host plants?

Will stress from changes in water and temperature impact the ecosystem’s ability to adapt to threats from exotic species or acid deposition?

How will rain be distributed in time and space?

Will bird migration still coincide with food availability?

Are streams warming over time and how will that impact life within?

What are the target species we should be track (i.e. what are the best ecological indicators of climate change - amphibians, avifauna, inverts, etc.)?

National Park Service

Appalachian Highlands Science Learning CenterGreat Smoky Mountains National Park

As environmental thresholds shift in space and time, species can either:

1. Adapt2. Migrate3. Become extinct

Could result in native species being replaced by more competitively superior exotic invasive species.

Delcourt and Delcourt, 2009

Unique High Elevation Ecosystem

National Park Service

Appalachian Highlands Science Learning CenterGreat Smoky Mountains National Park

Density Distribution of the Red-cheeked salamander

(Plethodon jordani) at GRSM

National Park Service

Appalachian Highlands Science Learning CenterGreat Smoky Mountains National Park

Average Daily Minimum January Temperature

(J. Fridley. 2009 Syracuse)

Maximum July Temperature

Fridley, 2009 Syracuse

National Park Service

Appalachian Highlands Science Learning CenterGreat Smoky Mountains National Park

ATBI in the Smokies

Known

Estimated Unknown

Non-Vascular Plants / Fungi

Vascular Plants

Invertebrates

Vertebrates

National Park Service

Appalachian Highlands Science Learning CenterGreat Smoky Mountains National Park

New Park Records: 7,391

Beetles42 new to science, 1,488 new park records

Snails7 new to science, 50 new park records

Spiders41 new to science, 266 new park records

Millipedes2 new to science, 22 new park records

Algae78 new to science, 566 new park records

Flies29 new to science, 317 new park records

Mushrooms57 new to science, 583 new park records

National Park Service

Appalachian Highlands Science Learning CenterGreat Smoky Mountains National Park

New Species to Science: 922

Cosberella lamaralexanderiCollembola = Springtail60 new to science, 144 new park records

Ramazzottius n. sp.Tardigrade = Water bear18 new to science, 55 new park records

Diachaea n sp.Slime Mold17 new to science, 139 new park records

Neophylax kolodskiiCaddisfly5 new to science, 78 new park records

Ligdia n sp.Moth/Butterfly36 new to science, 944 new park records

National Park Service

Appalachian Highlands Science Learning CenterGreat Smoky Mountains National Park

National Park Service

Appalachian Highlands Science Learning CenterGreat Smoky Mountains National Park

Phenology• The timing of biological activities, life cycle events

• Monitoring phenology is the best way to answer the previous questions

National Park Service

Appalachian Highlands Science Learning CenterGreat Smoky Mountains National Park

Timing of Biological Activity• Some seasonal biological

activities are happening 15-20 days earlier than several decades ago: – Trees blooming earlier– Migrating birds arriving earlier– Bees, Butterflies emerging earlier

• Changes in timing differ from species to species, so ecological interactions are disrupted.

European pied flycatcher chicks are now

born later than the caterpillars they eat.

Images used under the terms of the GNU

Free Documentation License.

National Park Service

Appalachian Highlands Science Learning CenterGreat Smoky Mountains National Park

Some Phenology Data from Tremont

National Park Service

Appalachian Highlands Science Learning CenterGreat Smoky Mountains National Park

National Park Service

Appalachian Highlands Science Learning CenterGreat Smoky Mountains National Park

Tornado Damage

April 27, 2011: Category 4, Winds 166-220 mph

National Park Service

Appalachian Highlands Science Learning CenterGreat Smoky Mountains National Park

Citizen Science Climate Change Project(s)

Give Them a Personal Connection

National Park Service

Appalachian Highlands Science Learning CenterGreat Smoky Mountains National Park

Don’t argue! Offer non-threatening solutions

National Park Service

Appalachian Highlands Science Learning CenterGreat Smoky Mountains National Park

Human causes - Human solutions

National Park Service

Appalachian Highlands Science Learning CenterGreat Smoky Mountains National Park

Susan Sachs, Great Smoky Mountains National Park

Susan_Sachs@nps.gov

Any Questions?

National Park Service

Appalachian Highlands Science Learning CenterGreat Smoky Mountains National Park

National Park Service

Appalachian Highlands Science Learning CenterGreat Smoky Mountains National Park

National Park Service

Appalachian Highlands Science Learning CenterGreat Smoky Mountains National Park

Myth: Current warming trend is a natural process, the Earth has done this before and nature is capable of coping

Common Myths

National Park Service

Appalachian Highlands Science Learning CenterGreat Smoky Mountains National Park

Global Warming or Climate Change?

National Park Service

Appalachian Highlands Science Learning CenterGreat Smoky Mountains National Park

Myth: Scientists are in disagreement• 97% agree that climate change is real and

is caused by human activity.• Appearance of disagreement is part of

scientific process as researchers explore hypotheses and theories

• Uncertainty exists on exact impacts, we move forward with the best information available.

• Some of the “disagreement” is just perception about scientific terms i.e. “likely” = between a 66% and 89% probability in the IPCC report.

National Park Service

Appalachian Highlands Science Learning CenterGreat Smoky Mountains National Park

Myth: Climate Change is not Caused by Humans

National Park Service

Appalachian Highlands Science Learning CenterGreat Smoky Mountains National Park

Myth: If Climate Change were true, we would be seeing impacts already

National Park Service

Appalachian Highlands Science Learning CenterGreat Smoky Mountains National Park

“Weather isn’t going to go away because of Climate Change” Dr. Gavin Schmidt, NASA Climate Scientist

Myth: Cold Weather Disproves Climate Change

La Nina El Nino

National Park Service

Appalachian Highlands Science Learning CenterGreat Smoky Mountains National Park

Myth: Climate Change is Caused by the Sun

All regions warmed at the surface but the stratosphere cooled the most at the highest altitude

National Park Service

Appalachian Highlands Science Learning CenterGreat Smoky Mountains National Park

Unique habitats

Myth: There is plenty of time to react to Climate Change

Many greenhouse gases will stay in the atmosphere for many years.

• Methane has an atmospheric lifetime of 13.5 years

• Nitrous oxide has an atmospheric lifetime of 120 years

• CO2 atmospheric lifetime is difficult to calculate, recent work indicates it may be as long as tens of thousands of years or as short as 100 years.