Multi-year prediction of ENSO

Jing-JiaLuo¹*(jingjia_luo@hotmail.com),HanhNguyen¹,HarryHendon¹,OscarAlves¹,

NickDunstone²,CraigMacLachlan²

¹AustralianBureauofMeteorology(BoM)²UKMetOffice*NowatNanjingUniversityofScienceInformationandTechnology(NUIST),China

UKMODePreSys3• 16months:1Novstartdate,everyyearduring1980-2014;30members• 66months:1Novstartdate,every2-3yearduring1960-2014;10membersJAMSTECSINTEX-F•  24months:startfrom1stdayofeverymonth,1982-2012,9members.

Developingamulti-yearpredictionsystematBoM:1.  ACCESS-S1:NewBoMpredictionsystembasedonUKGC2(60

kmatmosphere+25kmocean,highverticalresolutions)2.  CollaborationwithUKMetOffice:DePreSys3

66months

ClimatedriftsofSSTandUV10:

Leadtime

Initialshock

Stan

darddeviatio

n

16m

16m

66m

66m

16-month prediction with 30 members

a)

b) Anomaly correlation skill

NDJ0 JFM1 MAM1 MJJ1 JAS1 SON1 NDJ1

Lead time (season)

2-yearpredictionofLaNiñaevents(SINTEX-F):

Nino3.4SSTA;D20(5˚S-5˚N,150˚-270˚E)

SSTA

(˚C) D20a(m

)

Luoetal.J.Climate2008

Nino3.4SSTA Nino3.4SSTA

SSTA

(˚C)

SSTA

(˚C)

Real time forecasts (http://www.jamstec.go.jp/frsgc/research/d1/iod/e/seasonal/outlook.html)

ENSO2-yearlead

1Aug.2009

ENSO2-yearlead

1Jan.2010

Obs.

1Jun.2011 ENSO2-yearlead 1Jan.2011 ENSO

2-yearlead

（9-membermean)

2-yearpredictionofthe2010-12LaNiña(Luoetal.,2017,ScientificReports,DOI:10.1038/s41598-017-01479-9)

(the2007-09LaNiña)

(5ºS-5ºN,150ºE-160ºW)

SSTA & 2-m air temperature anomaly

Contour interval is 0.3ºC

Luo et al., J. Climate, 2008.

2-year lead ENSO prediction (SINTEX-F, 9 members):

Ensemble mean

Persistence Each member

Lead time (month)

0.5 Nino3.4 SSTA prediction (120º-170ºW, 5ºS-5ºN)

a) Year 1 (Jan-Dec)

b) Year 1-2

c) Year 1-3

d) Year 1-4

e) Year 1-5

f) Year 2-5

Prediction skill of multi-year mean SST anomaly DePreSys3

(210º-270ºE,5ºS-5ºN) Year1 Year1-3

Year1-5 Year2-5

Summary:v Largeclimatedriftsandinitialshocksexist.v ENSOcanbeskilfullypredictedouttoabout1.5-2yearsahead.v Multi-yearmeantemperatureanomaliescanbepredictedatdecadal

timescale,particularlyintheareaswithstrongwarmingtrends.v Predictionofprecipitationismorechallenging.

a) Year 1

b) Year 1-2

c) Year 1-3

d) Year 1-4

e) Year 1-5

f) Year 2-5

Prediction skill of multi-year mean surface air temperature anomaly

DJF

Prediction of surface air temperature anomaly

b) ACC skill SON

Prediction of precipitation anomaly c) ACC skill DJF

d) ACC skill SON