Post on 16-Dec-2014
description
Global Change in Mountain Regions: What Does It Mean and Why Should You Care?
Greg Greenwood Executive Director,
Mountain Research InitiativeUniversity of Bern, Switzerland
Mountainresearch initiative
Suzhou, China, 26 May 2011
OUTLINE
• Swiss commitment to mountain and climate research
• Why are mountains important? • How are mountains different?• How will climate change affect
mountains?• Interdisciplinary earth system
science in mountains
Mountain Research Initiative• Focused on Global
Change (climate, land use, population movement, economic development)
• Supported by the Swiss National Science Foundation as expression of Swiss foreign and scientific policy
• http://mri.scnatweb.ch
Switzerland supports other international global change projects: Global Mountain Biodiversity Assessment (GMBA) and Past Global Changes (PAGES)
Switzerland also hosts and supports Working Group 1 (Physical Science Basis) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
The University of Bernis renown for mountainand climate research
WHY ARE MOUNTAINS IMPORTANT?
• Significant planetary feature• Water: supply, power, hazard• Protection from hazards• Natural resources: forests, pasture • Carbon sequestration• Biodiversity• Tourism and recreation
Global significance of mountain regionsQuantitative considerations
• 22% of the terrestrial land area are mountains
• 12% of the global human population live in mountain regions
• 50% of the human population depend on freshwater resources from mountains
(UNEP-WCMC)
(FAO 2003)
China is the largest country that is more than 50% mountainous
Water (3x) Protection Resource extraction
Global significance of mountain regionsQualitative considerations: Ecosystem goods & services (1/2)
NA:957 MM/Y(640 MM/Y)
SA:1345 MM/Y(1784 MM/Y)
EA:746 MM/Y(552 MM/Y)
AF:887 MM/Y(689 MM/Y)
DATA FROM ADAM AND LETTENMAIER (2003) AND ADAM ET AL., (2005),GLOBAL AVERAGE: EXCLUDING ANTARCTICACOMPLEX TERRAIN: 887 MM/Y;(“FLAT” TERRAIN: 768 MM/Y)(Slide from Rick Lawford, GEWEX)
More precip over complex terrain (except in SA)
Mountains are “Water Towers”
Landslides pose a threat..Zhouqu, 2010
Tourism BiodiversityCarbon storage
Global significance of mountain regionsQualitative considerations: Ecosystem goods & services (2/2)
Mountains are centers of biodiversity
Mountains are centers of tourism
HOW ARE MOUNTAINS DIFFERENT?
• Mountains stick up => habitat diversity and juxtaposition
• Stuff falls/flows down => geomorphology, hydrology => benefits and hazards
• Mountains affect circulation => prediction under future climates
(slide from Andreas Hemp, University of Bayreuth)
Gravity makes mountains dynamic: water, rock, fire...
Gravity makes mountains dynamic: water, rock, fire...
Gravity makes mountains dynamic: water, rock, fire...
Gravity makes mountains dynamic: water, rock, fire...
Some Key CC Impacts in Mountains
• Cryospheric changes: glacial retreat, higher snowline, (melting permafrost)
• Amplitude and timing of water flow (T, T+P)
• Habitat and species movement• Disturbance regimes
20th century warming is more important in the Alps
Rebetez & Reinhard In press
+ 0.57 °C / decade
Te
mp
era
ture
ano
mal
y [°
C]
(slide from Pascal Vittoz and Antoine Guisan, UniL)
Climate scenario for Central Alps
0
50
100
150
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
Current climate(1960-2000)
Future climate(2070-2100)
Temperature (°C) Precipitation (mm)
Month MonthFuture climate downscaled based on simulations withregional climate model (CHRM56 A2, Schär et al. 2004)
(slide from Harald Bugmann, ETHZ)
Consequences for floods:the buffering effects of snow
Runoff
Floodlevel
(slide from Martin Beniston, University of Geneva)
-8 -7 -6 -5 -4 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 31
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
Possible shifts in snow duration for a projected climatic change in the Alps
255075100125150175200225250275300325350
Snowpackduration[days]
2081-2090
2091-21002071-2080
Säntis:Future climate
Arosa:Current climate
Arosa:Future climate
20
71
-20
80
20
81
-20
90
20
91
-21
00
Mean winter temperatures [°C]
Me
an
win
ter
pre
cipi
tatio
n [m
m/d
ay]
Säntis:Current climate
Ben
iston et al, 2003: T
heoretical and A
pplied Clim
atology
(slide from Martin Beniston, University of Geneva)
L. perenne, +5.8°C by 2100, dispersion: 40 m/yr
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2040
2045
2035
2060
2065
2070
2075
2080
2085
2090
Colonized surface per 5 years
2050
2055
2095
2100
Te
mp
era
ture
in
cre
as
e [
°K]
Transient plant dispersion with warming
Randin, Engler et al. (in prep)Milleret (2004) Master
MigClim model
(slide from Antoine Guisan, University of Lausanne)
Randin et al. (in prep.)
25 100
% sp turnover by 2100:
Species turnover and extinctions
D. octopetala E. myosuroides L. alpinus
A. elatius
V. tripteris
S. minor
All speciesdifferentin 2100
A1 scenario
win
ner
s
lose
rs
Committed to extinction?
gaining> 200%
201
Number of species(N = 287)
% area lost or gained
-100 0 220
0
130
86
(slide from Antoine Guisan, University of Lausanne)
Schumacher & Bugmann (2006), GCB
Future climate (2080)
Impacts: range shifts and disturbances
http://www.globallandproject.org/
How can we adapt theGLP approach to theThird Pole?
MRI is working with INSTITUTE OF TIBETAN PLATEAU RESEARCH/CAS
http://www.tpe.ac.cn/home
THANK YOU FOR YOUR ATTENTION