Melbourne Making the transition from oil dependency to

community resilience

Presented by

Graham Truscott and Sarah SpencerMelbourne Area Transition

What we will do in the next 90 minutes…

1. Explore: - resource depletion

- peak oil

- climate change

2. Discuss the implications for this area

3. Encourage you to support Melbourne Area Transition

initiatives and energise this community

It’s nice here. We’re OK. Big economic, political, environmental issues will never affect us much… ….will they ?

What are these guys sitting on ?What is the date ?

Let’s explore the issues…

(It’s copper ore in the 1890s)

Bingham Canyon Mine, Utah

This is where we mine copper ore today - Note the trucks…

What do you think?

“Global resource depletion will severely affect me, my family and Melbourne within the next

few years”

“Global resource depletion and supply issues will never significantly affect me, my family or

Melbourne”

Climate changeIf Carbon dioxide was visible…

The sky would have changed colour in the past thirty years….

Climate change – feedbacks kicking in…

Upsala Glacier, Argentina

…are so obvious that legislation at international and national level aims to solve the problem

The black line shows it’s actually much worse than the predictions.

What do we use oil for ?

Transition Training 2009

Oil

Can you think of:

1. Any aspect of life in Melbourne today that is not dependent on oil.

2. Every aspect of everyday life in Melbourne that was dependent on oil in 1860 or 1910.

Ready availability of “cheap” oil has significantly changed Melbourne…

In 1860 or 1910 personal transport was limited. Today almost every household has a car and foreign holidays are commonplace…

In 1860 or 1910 the majority of residents lived and worked within walking distance of their homes. Today, some residents commute across the world…

In 1860 or 1910 most of Melbourne’s food and daily needs would have come from within ten miles. And today…?

In 1860 Melbourne was robust

- 3,500 acres with all kinds of industry- produced its own food- educated its own children- brewed its own beer- made its own clothes- built its own houses with local materials

Oil has given us the equivalent of seven league boots – enabling every aspect our “modern” lives…

So what makes us different from 1860 ?

But the result is our fossil fuel addiction

The developed world gets about 80% of its energy from fossil fuels (oil is ancient sunlight).

95% of food consumed in the UK – and therefore also in Melbourne - is dependent on fossil fuels for fertiliser, pesticides, processing, packaging and transport.

And it’s not sustainable…

ClimateChange

End of Cheap Energy

Energy Security

End of cheap energy: Peak oilDr M. King Hubbert, Shell Oil geologist

According to the International Energy Agency World oil production has already peaked – so we have used more oil than there is left in the ground

Individual countries in decline

UK• Discovery peaked

1974• Production peaked

1999

Source: Dr Campbell, ASPO

Egypt• Discovery peaked

1963• Production peaked

1993

Other regions in decline

Indonesia• Discovery peaked

1945• Production peaked

1977

Source: Dr Campbell, ASPO

Russia• Discovery peaked

1960• Production peaked

1987

64 countries have peaked….

Source: BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2009

The major oil companies are also declining…

• Chevron peak production was in 2002• Royal Dutch Shell in 2003• Total in 2004• BP in 2005 • ExxonMobil in 2006

And now (Nov 2010) the IEA says the world passed peak oil production in 2006…

Growing energy shortfall…as production declines…

45 mb/d deficit even if demand remains linear

2010

Near-term shocks and crises on the energy descent…

Oil price began rising in 2003/4

Replacing conventional oil“There isn't anything conceivable that could replace conventional oil, in the same quantity and energy density:

• We can't mine oil sands in sufficient quantity because there isn't enough water to process them.

• We can't grow bio-fuels because there would be no land left to grow food.

• Solar, hydro, wind, and geothermal don't yield enough energy.

• Hydrogen (from water) takes more energy to make than it can yield.

• Coal has massive climate change implications and supply will peak soon too.

• Nuclear too little too late and is a derivative of oil.”

Source: Miller, BP Exploration UK, Jan 2004

Energy securityWhere will Britain get its energy?

• From Russia with love ?

• Invade an oil rich country ? • Cosy up to

dictatorships ?

The economic overlayIn 1960 1 unit of energy extracted 100 units of oil.

Today 1 unit of energy extracts only 5 units of oil.When the ratio reaches 1:1 it will no longer be worth extracting.

Day of reckoning for massive global financial debt has only been postponed and deepened by printing money…

The economic overlayWe have borrowed from our own future - economically and environmentally.

We will have to manage with much less oil - and less “wealth”

Many people have a sense of entitlement: “less” and “austerity” do not go down well:

Initial symptoms of Peak Oil awareness…

DenialA sense of bewilderment FearDepressionOutbreaks of nihilismIrrational grasping at unfeasible solutions

Cultural visionsVisions of a future without cheap oil tend to fall into two camps:

Techno-UtopiaSomething wonderful will happen and we’ll discover an everlasting source of energy.

Or Armageddon

A mad dash by nations to secure resources.

Wars. Pestilence. Economic collapse Climate catastrophe

Adapted from D. Lerch, Post Carbon Institute

So what will happen here …as energy becomes scarce…?

Transport and land use will change

Energy consumption will change

The community – where it works and

plays - will change

Changes will be driven by near–term shocks… …but we can begin to reduce our vulnerability NOW !

Layers of necessary action…..Global

• Protocols• CO2 quotas

(Contraction and

Convergence)

• Kyoto and new international agreements

National- rationing

- carbon caps

Community

• Transition towns, cities,

villages,

PersonalReassessmen

t, Reconnection

and Responsibility

What future do you imagine ?Continued mass consumerism ?

Ready availability of everything you have today, and more… …for ever ?

Oil price spikes and crises – affecting everything ?

One car per street ? Solar panels on every roof ?

Where will our food come from ?

Communities are building resilience to the problems right NOW…eg,

Ashby-de-La Zouch (Ashby 2020)

Bristol City (Peak Oil report, food mapping, 2020 goal)

Totnes (Energy Descent Action Plan)

Somerset County Council (Resolution and Peak oil training for all staff)

Ashton Hayes, Cheshire - see their award winning film

What might local resilience look like ?

Food • Rapid expansion of local food

production• Reduction of fossil fuel use in the

food system,• Local food networks bringing

producers and consumers together.

Education• Smaller local schools (secondary

school back in Melbourne ?)• Emphasis on vocational subjects,

building, cooking, horticulture ?

HealthcareLocal healthcare centres and the local production of medicines ?

Oil-resilient transport

Locally produced, renewable fuels (such as biogas or renewable electricity) in public transport ?

Fewer people able to afford private cars ?

Shift from private to public transport, share-schemes, cycling and walking.

Expansion of existing programmes – especially where low cost

Community supported agriculture eg, Whetstone, Leicestershire

Growing food in gardens and common land (eg school grounds – like Silverhill School, Mickleover )

Reducing food vulnerability ?

So what will happen here ?Melbourne people anticipatethe possible future scenarios…

We take responsibility for the transition to a low-carbon, energy- constrained near future ?

We cooperate with our neighbours ?

We reduce our vulnerability and build our resilience to shocks ?

We can control our own future…

Melbourne Area TransitionLocal residents taking responsibility and urgent action at the community level NOW !

Four major projects already underway (November 2010):

• Parish Church solar PV• Community woodland on Forestry Commission land• Low Carbon Melbourne (with SDDC)• Melbourne School demonstration food forest

proposal

Church 10 kW PV project

Panels installed at Sleaford Church – also Grade 1 listed

Panels will be anchored to south facing nave and aisle roofs – invisible from below. A monitor screen in the church will give real time power-generation data. Installation will last 25 years and be totally reversible.

Church 10 kW PV project The PV panels will not affect the scenic splendour of the church, but will be a great example of commitment to a better future…

Community woodland project19 hectares of

Forestry Commission land on edge of Robin

Wood

Community woodland project19 hectares of

Forestry Commission land on edge of Robin

Wood

• Biomass coppice (enough to power Melbourne Leisure Centre ?)• Demonstration orchard/food forest• Multi-purpose planting• Green burials ?• Community training and teaching• Increased amenity, wildlife diversity/CO2 offset• A growing community resource as the

transition takes place...

Low carbon Melbourne project

• Professional free home energy surveys• In conjunction with South Derbyshire District Council• Free or very low cost insulation for many households• Reduces carbon emissions, home running costs• Keeps you warmer !• Energy information gadgets and giveaways!

Melbourne Junior School• Proposal for a demonstration food forest• The start of a dialogue about oil dependency • Hoping to reach parents as well - before oil shortages do…

Silver Hill School, Mickleover. Food forest garden under construction (Spring 2010)

Food forest concept•

Mimics a natural forest ecosystem, except that the species chosen are all usable by humans for food and other purposes (eg, building materials, nitrogen fixing or medicines).

What is Transition?Began 5 years ago – rapidly growing independent grass-roots movement

Building resilience and sustainability through stronger communities and local action – not a protest march…

Vision of a low carbon, energy-constrained future less reliant on fossil fuels

Positive approach to deliver happier, healthier, safer places to live – seeing crises as opportunities

Transition groups and communities

England 300+Scotland 25Wales 32Northern Ireland 3Ireland 13Australia 27Argentina 1Belgium 1Canada 14Chile 1France 2

Holland 1Israel 1Italy 4Mexico 1Netherlands 1New Zealand 34 South Africa 2Spain 6Sweden 4Switzerland 1United States 55

Transition principles…

1. Sustainability - Life with less energy is inevitable so we help others to become more sustainable rather than be taken by surprise….

2. Resilience – Building resilience to cope with energy and economic shocks….

3. Empowerment – Helping take responsibility and encouraging everyone to act now

4. Creativity – Encouraging communities to grow more enriching, satisfying and connected

Melbourne has the skills.. Community spirit ? still hereTradition of food production ? still here High tech skills and expertise ? may be greater than in 1860 ?Resourcefulness ? surely yes ?Creativity ? surely yes ?Willingness/empowerment ? what do you think…?

John Joseph Briggs 1829-1875 Melbourne resident and diarist

“We have endeavoured in our day and generation to leave the world better than we found it…I hope those who come after us will strive to accomplish the same object…”

A more resilient Melbourne – and a better community

future….isn’t it up to us, the people of Melbourne ?

www.transitionmelbourne.org