Measuring and Measuring and mapping populationpp g p pFrom national to local scales

David MartinUniversity of Southamptony pRGS/GA lecture, Peter Symonds College, 3 November 2009

A few introductions…

• School of Geography, University of S th tSouthampton

• Economic and Social Research Council (ESRC)Research Council (ESRC)

• Census programmeC k• Census.ac.uk

Measuring and mapping Measuring and mapping population•UK population – in the news•UK population – in the news•What are the key trends?•How do we know?•How do we know?•Why does geography matter?•Next challenges in counting the Next challenges in counting the population?

•How can I use the information to o a u o a o osupport my own learning?

Source: http://news.bbc.co.uk

Source: http://news.bbc.co.uk

What are the key trends?What are the key trends?

•Population growth•Population growth•Migration more important than balance of births and deaths balance of births and deaths 1997-2008

•Ageing population esp “oldest of •Ageing population, esp. oldest of the old”

•More, smaller householdsMore, smaller households•Geographical variation

Population growthPopulation growth

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International migration

Source: http://ons.gov.co.uk

International migration

Population structurePopulation structure

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Household structure

Source: http://ons.gov.co.uk

Household structure

How do we know?How do we know?

•2001 Census•2001 Census•Birth and death registrations•International passenger survey•International passenger survey•NHS registered patient numbers•Population projections •Population projections •Counting the population is getting increasingly difficultincreasingly difficult

What is a census?What is a census?

l d ll• 10-yearly data collection• Questionnaire delivered

t h h ldto every household• Legal obligation: 96%

coverage coverage • Multiple uses and users

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• Single most important social data source for small areas

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Census topicsCensus topics

l• Age, sex, marital status, household structureC t f bi th/ th i it• Country of birth/ethnicity

• Health/disability• Economic status• Housing, amenities• Travel to work and cars• Qualifications

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2011 census

• Largely similar content to 2001• Mail-out and mail-back, internet

questionnaire available• Concentration of effort on hardest

to count areas• Major effort on listing addresses

d ti ti i i and estimating missing persons

Why does geography matter?Why does geography matter?

•Demographic and economic •Demographic and economic patterns are strongly geographically clusteredgeographically clustered

•Communities, neighbourhoods and local areas are key foci of local areas are key foci of government policy and service deliverydelivery

•The census is unique in its ability to provide small area datap

Policy focus on neighbourhoodsPolicy focus on neighbourhoods

•Recognition that social exclusion is •Recognition that social exclusion is geographically clustered

•Persistence and growth of patterns •Persistence and growth of patterns of deprivation and inequality

•Advantages of small-area focus to •Advantages of small area focus to policies aimed at alleviation of social exclusionsocial exclusion

Next challenges in counting Next challenges in counting the population•Treasury sub Committee report •Treasury sub-Committee report 2008

•2011 probably the last •2011 probably the last “conventional” census

•Need much better migration •Need much better migration information

•Greater focus on the use of Greater focus on the use of administrative records

•Societal concerns

How can I use the information toHow can I use the information to support my own learning?•A brief visit to Boscombe•A brief visit to Boscombe•Freely available data from the Neighbourhood Statistics ServiceNeighbourhood Statistics Service

http://www.neighbourhood.statistics.gov.uk•Searches based on Boscombe and Searches based on Boscombe and postcode BH1 3AH (because my Mum stayed in a hotel there!)y )

How does it differ from other places?other places?

What is Boscombe like?

How much variation is like?there within Boscombe?Boscombe?

Practical suggestionsPractical suggestions

•Explore your neighbourhoodp y g•Consider/question:

—Definition of neighbourhood boundaries

—Socioeconomic structures—Explore social pattern, scale—Compare with national and

regional levels—Consider change over time

SummarySummary

•Population geography addresses p g g p ysome of the key challenges facing UK society

•We need the best possible information to inform policy

•We need new methods for counting the population

•Lots of scope to enhance your geographical understanding!