Post on 18-Jan-2018
description
Martin Labbe Associates
2007 Emissions2007 Emissions
TMC MeetingTMC Meeting
March 2004
Economic ConsequencesEconomic Consequences
Martin Labbe Associates
US Retail Sales
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
Class 8 Class 6&7
Martin Labbe Associates
US Retail Sales
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978
Class 8 Class 6&7
Martin Labbe Associates
US Retail Sales
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,00019
80
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
Class 8 Class 6&7
Martin Labbe Associates
Inventory-To-Sales Ratios
1.21.251.3
1.351.4
1.451.5
1.551.6
1.651.7
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
Retail
Wholesale
Manufacturing
Total
Martin Labbe Associates
Transportation Services SegmentationLine Haul, Regional, Local
DISTRIBUTIONPRODUCTION
Line Haul
Line Haul
Line Haul
FINALGOODS
INTERMEDIATEGOODS
CRUDEMATERIALS
DISTRIBUTIONCENTERS
PRODUCERS/DISTRIBUTORS
Martin Labbe Associates
Retail Outlets
DistributionCenters
Producers/Distributors
Regional/Local
Wholesalers
End Users End Users End Users
Line Haul/Regional
Line Haul/Regional
Line Haul/Regional/Local
LocalLocal
LocalRegional/Local Regional/
Local
DISTRIBUTION
Transportation Services SegmentationLine Haul, Regional, Local
Martin Labbe Associates
Class 8 Population ChangePercent Change Year Ago
-5
0
5
10
81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98
Domestic Demand Class 8
Martin Labbe Associates
US Class 8 Vehicle Population Age Trends
403 430 490
515 623824
9031,073
1,114
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
1998 2000 2004
11 to 20 6 to 10 1 to 5
Martin Labbe Associates
Areas Impacted Direct Economic
Cost of goods sold
Fuel cost increase
Pre-buy issues
Martin Labbe Associates
Areas Impacted Indirect Economic
Regional economic disruption
Cost of hiring
Layoff restrictions
Martin Labbe Associates
Areas Impacted Equipment
Unknown maintenance Pre-buy quality Component suppliers Where to put it
Martin Labbe Associates
Areas Impacted Operations
Increased fuel consumption Unscheduled downtime Scheduled downtime Increased training Enforcement issues
Martin Labbe Associates
Areas Impacted Environment
Fuel issues Cleaning traps Disposing of waste Disposing of traps Diesel to gas switch
Martin Labbe Associates
Current Estimates• Fuel – 6 to 20 cents per gallon• Fuel Economy – 6% to 9% loss• Equipment - $6,000 to $15,000• Additional Maintenance - $1,500 to
$3,000 per year• Waste material handling - $????• Roadside fines - $?,??? per incident
Martin Labbe Associates
Net Profit Margins
00.5
11.5
22.5
33.5
4
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
$5 to 25 million
Over $25 Million
Martin Labbe Associates
Timing – MLA Estimates• 1/1/2007 – Engines in all vehicles • 9/1/2006 – Final version to production
• 8/1/2005 – Current estimate of availability• 10/1/2005 – Estimate of production
• 10 months of testing
Martin Labbe Associates
General Conclusions• Gross misestimate of impact
– Economic– Operations– Carrier profitability– Environment– Fuel economy– Energy conservation