Post on 27-Jun-2020
Market Opportunity of
Polyolefin Elastomer & Plastomer
(POE & POP) in China
by Shawn Zhang
CNCIC
May 17th, 2019
Only used for CNCIC 2019
NOT PUBLICLY DISCLOSED
Contents
Introduction on CNCIC
Global POE&POP market dynamics
China POE&POP market
Supply
Booming Demand
Price and profitability
Forecast
Challenges and opportunities
1© 2019 CNCIC Consulting. All rights reserved
Only used for CNCIC 2019
NOT PUBLICLY DISCLOSED
CNCIC is an authoritative chemical industrial information service &
consulting institute in China, and focuses on chemical industrial market
research for nearly 60 years
Established
Economic
Information Center
of the Ministry of
Chemical Industry
Established Scientific &
Technological Information
Research Institute of
Ministry of Chemical
Industry
Merged to
establish
CNCIC
Transferred
to enterprise
1959 1984 1992 1999
─ Research Institute of Industry Planning
─ Research Institute of Industry Economics
─ China National Petrochemicals Information Center
─ China National Polymers Information Center
─ China National Fertilizer Information Center
─ China National Pesticide Technology Economic
Development Center
─ China National Silicon &Fluorine Material Information
Research Center
● Professional Research Platforms
─ China International Exhibition Center of Chemical
Industry
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chemical conferences & exhibitions in China and
abroad
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Association
● Broad Industrial Communication Platforms
─ CNCIC Database including Chinese
Petrochemicals and other commodity chemicals
─ CNCIC Price Index
● Reliable Internal Database
– China National Library of Engineering-Chemical Branch
– Member of NSTL (National Science and Technology Library)
● The Largest Chemical Resource Center in China
2019
2
Introduction of CNCIC
© 2019 CNCIC Consulting. All rights reserved
Only used for CNCIC 2019
NOT PUBLICLY DISCLOSED
CNCIC aims to be a reliable & long-term chemical consulting service
provider of our customers
Commodity Chemicals: 140+
Fine Chemicals: 500+
Key Chemical Industries: 10+
Database for 25+ Years Chemical Market Consulting
Experience for 15+ Years
Market Supply &
Demand Analysis
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Research
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Demand
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Optimization
• Competitiveness analysis
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Analysis
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Consulting
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park
• Industrial planning for
park
• Science & Technology
planning
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government
• Feasibility study
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• Post-evaluation
Market Survey Industrial Consulting Strategy Planning Engineering
Consulting
3
Introduction of CNCIC
© 2019 CNCIC Consulting. All rights reserved
Only used for CNCIC 2019
NOT PUBLICLY DISCLOSED
Polyolefin Elastomer(POE) and Polyolefin Plastomer(POP) are
materials of growing commercial importance
4
POE & POP-introduction
Term Properties Key applications
POE
• Superior elasticity
• Good toughness
• Low temperature
ductility
• thermal stability and
UV resistance
• Automotive
• Foams
• Wire and cable
• Film
• Medical good
• Footwear
POP
• Superior seal
performance
• Enhanced toughness
• Great optics
• High oxygen
transmission rate
• Food packaging
• Industrial packaging
• Hot melt adhesive
● POE and POP are ethylene/α-olefin copolymers that bridge
the performance gap between conventional plastics and
elastomers
– Ethylene-based, comonomers are octene (C8), hexene
(C6) or butylene (C4)
– Make the resin flow faster, flex longer, stick better and
breathe better
© 2019 CNCIC Consulting. All rights reserved
Plastics-easy processing
Elastomer-elastic properties
Only used for CNCIC 2019
NOT PUBLICLY DISCLOSED
Only a handful of POE/POP suppliers holding their own
patents of production dominate the global market
5
POE & POP-global supply
Company
Capacity, kt/a
Key TechnologyPOE POP Total
Dow 420 445 865 • Titanium catalyst
• Dow's Insite
Mitsui 290 - 290 • Exclusive metallocene catalytic
SSNC
(SABIC SK
Nexlene
Company)
90 90 180 • Nexlene
• Metallocene catalytic solution polymerization
and high-pressure ion technology
LG 60 30 90 • Metallocene polymerization catalyst and
solution method
ExxonMobil 50 130 180 • Exxpol metallocene
Borealis 50 70 120 • Exclusive metallocene catalytic
Total 960 765 1,725
Global Supply of POE/POE in 2018, kt/a
© 2019 CNCIC Consulting. All rights reserved
● Key POE/POP suppliers: Dow, Mitsui, SNNC, LG, ExxonMobil, and Borealis
● In 2018, the global capacity of POE/POP was 1,725 kt, with a CAGR of 5% in past five years
Source: Public information, IHS, CNCIC
Only used for CNCIC 2019
NOT PUBLICLY DISCLOSED
The global POP/POE consumption reached 1.5 million Mt
with major applications in auto and packaging segments
6
POE & POP-global demand
© 2019 CNCIC Consulting. All rights reserved
Global POE consumption split in 2018
Automobile56%
Foam16%
Wire & Cable11%
Household Appliance
6%
Food Packaging
4%
Industrail Packaging
2%
Others5%
874 kt
● Auto, Foam, and wire & cable industry are the
major applications with 83% of consumption
Global POP consumption split in 2018
Food Packaging
47%Industrial Packaging
36%
Heat-melt Adhensive
9%
Others8%
654 kt
● Packaging Film is the major application with
share of 83%
Source: Public information, IHS, CNCIC
Only used for CNCIC 2019
NOT PUBLICLY DISCLOSED
From Nov. 2018 to 2020, the incremental capacity of refining-
chemical integration projects will include 53 million Mt/a of oil
refining and 5.5 million Mt/a of ethylene
Project Refining Ethylene Location
Hengli
Fujia-Huayang
20
20
1.5
NAChangxingdao
Risun
Yihong
Middle east gulf
Hebei Xinhua
15
15
15
20
1.2
-
-
-
Caofeidian
Shenghong 16 1.1 Lianyungang
Sinopec Gaoqiao 15 1.0 Shanghai
Zhejiang PC40,
20 (I)
2.8,
1.4 (I)Zhoushan
Gulei-JV 16 (II) 0.8 (I) Gulei
ExxonMobil NA 1.2 Huizhou
Total >172 9.6
By 2020 40 3.7
7
Project Refining Ethylene Location
Aramco-Norinco-JV 15 1.0 Panjin
CNPC-Russia-JV 15 - Tianjin
Sinochem Quanzhou 3 1.0 Quanzhou
CNPC-PDVSA-JV 20 1.2 Jieyang
Sinopec-Kuwait-JV 10 0.8 Zhanjiang
BASF NA 1.0 Zhanjiang
Sinopec-BASF-JV NA 1.0 Nanjing
Total >63 6.0
By 2020 13 1.8* Projects marked in red are scheduled to put on stream by 2020
Huizhou,
GuangDong
Ningbo,
Zhejiang
Caofeidian,
Hebei
Caojing,
Shanghai
Changxindao,
Dalian
Gulei, Fujian
Lianyungang,
Jiangsu
Zhanjiang,
Guangdong
Jieyang,
Guangdong
Panjin,
Liaoning
Quanzhou,
Fujian
Tianjin
Nanjing,
Jiangsu
PLANNED PROJECTS IN THE 7 BASES
Planned Refining-Chemical Integration Projects in China (million Mt/a)
Outside the 7 Large-scale refining & chemical bases
7 Large-scale refining & chemical bases
POP&POE-dynamic of PE industry in China
© 2019 CNCIC Consulting. All rights reserved
PLANNED PROJECTS OUTSIDE THE 7 BASES
Source: CNCIC
Only used for CNCIC 2019
NOT PUBLICLY DISCLOSED
At present, there is no POE/POP capacity in China due to
high technical barriers and shortage of raw materials
● Progress in localized production of in China is slow, therefore, it can only rely on import to meet the
domestic market demand
● POE products in the domestic market mainly come from suppliers in the US, Japan and South Korea
8
Brands of POE/POP imported to China in 2018
Company POE Brands and grades POP Brands grades
Dow Engage Series 8100/8110/8150/8200/8480 Affinity Series PL1880G/PL1881G/PL1450G1P
Engage Series 7270/7277/7447/7467 Affinity Series PF7266/PF1140G
Mitsui Tamfer DF Series 610/710/810/640/740/7350
Tamfer A Series A4070S/1085S/4085STamfer H Series 1030S/5030S
-
SABIC Fortify Series C1070/1070D,C5070/5070D,C0570/0570D
Cohere Series 8402/8102/8570D/8170D
SK Solumer Series 871/875/891/883 Supreme Series 051/024/021/028
LG Lucene Series 168/175/565/875Lucene Series 170/670/180
Luence Series LF100/ LC180
ExxonMobil Exact Series 9061/9071/9081/9371 -
Borealis Queo Series 8203Queo Series 6800 LA
Queo Series 8201/8203
© 2019 CNCIC Consulting. All rights reserved
POE & POP-supply in China
Source: CNCIC
Only used for CNCIC 2019
NOT PUBLICLY DISCLOSED
Progress in localized production of POE&POP in China is slow,
several companies are looking for technology providers
POE & POP-supply in China
© 2018 CNCIC Consulting. All rights reserved 9
“Pilot test plant of SINOPEC was built
in ZRCC, but not in operation, there
won’t be further progress in the short
term.”SINOPEC BRICI Prof. Zhang
“The whole progress of CNPC is
slower than SINOPEC’s, the test of
POE is still in batch process,
continuous test is not possible now,
new progress will be made in 2019
according to plan.”CNPC RIPED Mr Wang
SINOPEC Progress: Pilot Test
Main Participant: SINOPEC
BRICI-a, Prof. Bogeng Li from Zhejiang University
Pilot test plant was built in SINOPEC (Zhenhai refining), but not in operation.
CNPC Progress: Small Scale Test (Succeed in batch process, but hasn’t start small scale continuous production yet. )
Main Participant: CNPC DPRC-b
Currently in small scale phase, continuous plant is still in design, new progress will be made next year.
a. SINOPEC BRICI: Beijing Research Institute of Chemical Industries
b. CNPC DPRC: China National Petroleum Corporation Daqing Petrochemical Research Center(DPRC)
POE&POP localization progressing
ProgressingLiaoning
HuajinShenhua SINOPEC CNPC
Preliminary
research
Technology study
Laboratory test
Pilot test
Plants construction
Source: CNCIC
Only used for CNCIC 2019
NOT PUBLICLY DISCLOSED
POE & POP-import in China
10© 2019 CNCIC Consulting. All rights reserved
The import of POE/POP of China in 2018 was 301.3 kt, in
which Thailand and Korea accounted for 67%
Import
source
Import volume,
kt
Thailand 101
Korea 73
Singapore 59
USA 25
Saudi Arabia 16
Other 6
Total 280
12%
4% 45%39%
DOW
Borealis
DOWDOW
SK
SABIC
Import
source
Import volume,
kt
Thailand 9.5
Korea 8.2
Spain 1.8
Netherlands 0.8
Saudi Arabia 0.8
Other 0.2
Total 21.3
China’s import sources of POP in 2018
China’s import sources of POE in 2018
9%
6% 36%26%
21%
DOW
EXXONMOBIL
DOW
SABIC
EXXONMOBI
L
DOW
MITSUI
SK
SABIC
LG
Mitsui
Source: China Custom, CNCIC
Only used for CNCIC 2019
NOT PUBLICLY DISCLOSED
Domestic demand of the POE and POP in China is booming
gradually with a CAGR% of 18% and 9% (2013-2018)
11© 2019 CNCIC Consulting. All rights reserved
POE & POP-demand in China
280
23
20152013 2014 20182016 2017
POE
POP
POE/POP consumption in China 2013-2018
ktAuto, 50%
Foam, 9%
Wire&Cable, 8% Household
appliance, 5%
Industrial packaging,
18%
Food packaging,
5%
Others, 23%
Food packaging,
52%
Industrial packaging ,
23%
Adhesives, 13%
Others, 12%
POE consumption by applications
POP consumption by applications
Source: CNCIC
1
2
3
1
Only used for CNCIC 2019
NOT PUBLICLY DISCLOSED
POE & POP-POE application in Auto
12
Auto industry is the largest application of POE. Its total POE
consumption in 2018 was around 140kt, accounting for 50%
of the national total
● In auto sector, POE is mainly used for modification of PP material to increase the impact resistance
and tensile properties of the substrate
● The proportion of POE added in auto interior parts is generally 10-15%, and the proportion of POE
added in exterior parts is 17-25%
PP/POE/Inorganic
filler (Talc powder,
CaCo3)
18-22%
12
3
4
5
7 6
Bumper
Fender
Side door
sideboard
Instrument
panel
Steering
wheel
Door trim
Seat
PP/POE/Inor
ganic filler
(Talc powder,
CaCo3)
17-20%
PP/POE/Inorganic
filler (Talc powder,
CaCo3)
15-20%
PP/POE/Inorganic
filler (Talc powder,
CaCo3)
10-15%
PP/POE/Inorganic
filler (Talc powder,
CaCo3)
12-15%
PP/POE/Inorganic
filler (Talc powder,
CaCo3)
10-15%
PP/POE/Inorganic
filler (Talc powder,
CaCo3)
18-20%
© 2019 CNCIC Consulting. All rights reserved
POE addition ratio and grade in auto parts, total consumption: 140kt
Copolymer Grade Brand
C8
8999 Dow
875L SK
XUS58705 Dow
8150 Dow
C5070D Sabic
8200 Dow
871L SK
8842 Dow
C0570D Sabic
C4
7467 Dow
DF610 Mitsui
A-1050S Mitsui
DF740 Mitsui
LC168 LG
Source: CNCIC
1
Competing Materials: EPDM,
EPR, PVC, OBC, SEBS
Only used for CNCIC 2019
NOT PUBLICLY DISCLOSED
0
1
2
3
4
5Perfomance
Price
Delivery
Sale servicePayment
Batchstability
Brand
POE & POP-POE application in Auto
13
High performance-price ratio of POE is the most important
procurement criteria for Auto customers, while the key
unmet need is pre and after sale service
© 2019 CNCIC Consulting. All rights reserved
● In auto segment, price and performance are
equally important in POE procurement
– Performance: melt index, density, impact
resistance and compatibility
– Price: price stability
– Pre and after sale service: no special
requirement
Procurement criteria Satisfaction level
● Satisfaction: brand, performance, batch stability
and delivery of POE and POE supplier
● Unmet needs: pre and after sale service
– Technical guidance is weak, and no practical
application instruction
– Performance defect under special environment
0
1
2
3
4
5Perfomance
Price
Delivery
Sale servicePayment
Batchstability
Brand
Source: CNCIC
Only used for CNCIC 2019
NOT PUBLICLY DISCLOSED
POE & POP-POE application in foam
14
POE’s key application in foam segment is footwear
Outsole
Mid-sole
Shoe-pad
EVA/POE
POE addition ratio: 10-20%
● China’s POE consumption in foam sector was 26.3 KT in 2018, accounting for 9.4% of the national
total
● In foam sector, POE is mainly used as shoe materials. In addition, it is also used for fitness foam
mats, children's combination foam toys, foam packaging cushioning materials, and sound
absorbing materials
● POE mainly uses EVA as the base material in foaming sector, and the addition ratio is generally 15-
20%
© 2019 CNCIC Consulting. All rights reserved
POE addition ratio and grade in footwear, total consumption: 26.3kt
Copolymer Grade Brand
C8
8999 Dow
C0570D Sabic
8150 Dow
C0560D Sabic
XUS58705 Dow
C5070D Sabic
C1070D Sabic
8003 Dow
C1085 Sabic
C4
7467 Dow
LC175 LG
DF840 Mitsui
DF740 Mitsui
2
Source: CNCIC
Competing Materials:
PVC, EVA, SBS/SEBS,
TPV, EPR, PUR
Only used for CNCIC 2019
NOT PUBLICLY DISCLOSED
0
1
2
3
4
5Performance
Price
Delivery
Sale servicePayment
Batchstability
Brand
0
1
2
3
4
5Performance
Price
Delivery
Sale servicePayment
Batchstability
Brand
POE & POP-POE application in foam
15
Good performance and batch stability of POE are the most
important procurement criteria for foam customers, while the
key unmet need is high price and unstable supply
© 2019 CNCIC Consulting. All rights reserved
● In foam segment, POE performance and batch
stability are the most important procurement
criteria
– Performance: impact resistance, softness
of foam
– Batch stability is very important
Procurement criteria Satisfaction level
● Satisfaction: brand, performance and sale service
of POE and POE supplier
● Unmet needs: high price and unstable supply
– Unstable supply caused by the production
schedules of POE producers
Source: CNCIC
Only used for CNCIC 2019
NOT PUBLICLY DISCLOSED
POE & POP-POE application in packaging
16
Industrial packaging (non-food packaging) sector
saw fast growth in its POE consumption in 2017-2018
● China’s POE consumption in industrial packaging sector was 50.4KT in 2018
● Traditional industrial packaging includes industrial wrap film, FFS, shrinkable film, etc. New-type
industrial packaging includes photovoltaic cell packaging film
● POE for traditional packaging uses PP or PE as the substrate. The addition ratio is generally
low, only 5-20%
● POE for new-type packaging is separately produced into film-packaged cells and combined
with other materials into composite boards. It is one of the emerging materials in the
photovoltaic industry. The addition ratio of POE in the industry is as high as 98%
Glass
POE film
Battery
POE film
Glass
POE as basic
material,
used ratio is
98%
PE/POE, PP/POE
POE addition ratio:5-20%
Tra
ditio
n
pa
cka
gin
g
New
-type
packagin
g
© 2019 CNCIC Consulting. All rights reserved
Competing Materials: EVA
Competing Materials: LLDPE
Only used for CNCIC 2019
NOT PUBLICLY DISCLOSED
0
1
2
3
4
5Performance
Price
Delivery
Sale servicePayment
Batchstability
Brand
0
1
2
3
4
5Performance
Price
Delivery
Sale servicePayment
Batchstability
Brand
POE & POP-POE application in packaging
17
Good performance of POE is the most important procurement
criteria for industrial packaging customers, while the key unmet
need is delivery
© 2019 CNCIC Consulting. All rights reserved
Procurement criteria Satisfaction level
● In industrial packaging segment, POE
performance is the most important procurement
criteria
– Performance: resistivity, light transmittance
and tensile strength
● Price is not an important procurement criteria
– The addition of POE can improve the process
efficient and product performance, which can
offset the high cost of POE itself
● Satisfaction: brand, performance and sale service
of POE and POE supplier
● Unmet needs: delivery
– The POE shipping period is unstable, resulting
in a shortage of supply.
Only used for CNCIC 2019
NOT PUBLICLY DISCLOSED
POE & POP-POP application in packaging
18
POP is mainly used in food packaging and industrial
packaging in China
● China’s POP consumption in packaging sector was 17.3KT in 2018, accounting for 75% of the
national total
− POP was mostly used for food packaging, which accounts for 52% of the total POP
consumption
− POP addition ratio in POP/PP or POP/PE is generally low, only 5-10%
PP/POP, PE/POP
POP addition ratio:5-10%
Industrial packaging Food packaging Food packaging
Industrial packaging
Applications
© 2019 CNCIC Consulting. All rights reserved Source: CNCIC
Competing Materials: LLDPE, MLLDPEOnly used for CNCIC 2019
NOT PUBLICLY DISCLOSED
0
1
2
3
4
5Performance
Price
Delivery
Sale servicePayment
Batchstability
Brand
0
1
2
3
4
5Performance
Price
Delivery
Sale servicePayment
Batchstability
Brand
POE & POP-POP application in packaging
19
High performance-price ratio of POP is the most important
procurement criteria for food packaging customers, while
the key unmet need is high cost
© 2019 CNCIC Consulting. All rights reserved
Procurement criteria Satisfaction level
● In food packaging segment, POP performance
and price are the most important procurement
criteria
– Performance: stretching resistance and
light transmission
– Price: only high-end products use POP
● Satisfaction: brand, performance and sale
service of POP and POP supplier
● Unmet needs: price
– The price of POP is high, so only high-end
food packaging products would add POP
Source: CNCIC
Only used for CNCIC 2019
NOT PUBLICLY DISCLOSED
Price and profitability has been going down in past few
years due to more furious competition
20
Average price and profit rate of POE
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
16,000
17,000
18,000
19,000
20,000
21,000
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
In USD/MT
© 2019 CNCIC Consulting. All rights reserved
POE & POP in China-Price
In USD/MT
Price
Profit rate
Average price and profit rate of POP POP price by applications in China 2018In USD/MT In USD/MT
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
16,000
17,000
18,000
19,000
20,000
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Profit Rate
Price
Source: CNCIC
POE price by applications in China 2018
Application POE average Price
Automobile 2,790
Household Appliance 2,620
Wire & Cable 2,620
Foam 2,600
Food Packaging 2,650
Industrial Packaging 2,770
Application POP average Price
Food Packaging 2,720
Industrial Packaging 2,800
Adhesive 2,840
Others 2,500
3,100
3,000
2,900
2,800
2,700
2,600
2,500
2,400
3,000
2,900
2,800
2,700
2,600
2,500
2,400
2,300
Only used for CNCIC 2019
NOT PUBLICLY DISCLOSED
By 2023, the demand for domestic POE market will reach
541 kt, with a CAGR of 13% (2019-2023)
21
POE Price forecast 2019-2023
In USD/MT
© 2019 CNCIC Consulting. All rights reserved
● In 2019, the estimated domestic demand for POE is 330 kt, for 2023, is 541 kt
– From 2019 to 2023, the CAGR of domestic POE consumption is 13%
● In 2023, the price of POE is expected to be 2,430 USD/MT, which is 11% lower than that in 2018.
● In 2019-2023, the main applications of POE still include: Auto, industrial film, wire &cable and foam
– Auto will remain the largest application with 44%, followed by industrial packaging, accounting for
30%.
Market Assessment & Opportunities of POE & POP in China
POE Demand Forecast 2019-2023
Wire & CableFood Packaging
Foam
Industrial
Packaging
Auto
Others
330
541In kt
2,000
2,100
2,200
2,300
2,400
2,500
2,600
2,700
2,800
2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
-11%Only used for CNCIC 2019
NOT PUBLICLY DISCLOSED
The apparent demand for domestic POP market in 2023
was 4.3 kt with a CAGR of 6% (2019-2023)
22
Market Assessment & Opportunities of POE & POP in China
● In 2019, the estimated domestic demand for POP is 34,200 MTs, for 2032, is 42,900 MTs
– From 2019 to 2023, the CAGR of domestic POP consumption is 5%.
● In 2023, the price of POP is expected to be 2,350 USD/MT, which is 11% lower than that in 2018.
● In 2019-2023, the main applications of POP include: food and industrial packaging and hot melt
adhesives
– Food packaging is the most widely used, accounting for 57%
In kt
Food
Packaging
Industrial
Packaging
Others
34
43
In USD/MT
Heat-melt
Adhesive
© 2019 CNCIC Consulting. All rights reserved
2,000
2,100
2,200
2,300
2,400
2,500
2,600
2,700
2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
-11%
POE Price forecast 2019-2023 POE Demand Forecast 2019-2023
Only used for CNCIC 2019
NOT PUBLICLY DISCLOSED
Challenges and opportunities for potential POE/POP players in
China market
Overall Assessment from CNCIC
s
23© 2019 CNCIC Consulting. All rights reserved
• Some local POE users prefer
cheaper off-grade products
• Plastics processing companies are
not very familiar with POE
products, so they may misuse them
• Plastics modification companies’
environmental compliance cost
increases and will choose POE’s
competitive materials to save costs
POE
• POP is not very cost effective
compared to its competitive
materials
• Local packaging companies mostly
focus mid-range to low-end
products, so their demand for high-
end POP is low
POP
• One of the fastest-growing
tougheners
• China’s urbanization rate is
estimated to exceed 60% by 2020,
which will greatly boost the
construction of infrastructures
and promote demand in energy,
automobiles, home appliances,
building materials and food
segments
• Food packaging industry will see 6%
CAGR in the period
• Industrial packaging industry will
grow at 7% CAGR
Challenges Opportunities
Only used for CNCIC 2019
NOT PUBLICLY DISCLOSED