Post on 24-Feb-2016
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Maneuvering in Time
It may be said that in the future I may lose a battle, but I shall never lose a minute.
~Napoleon3
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Strategy is the science of making use of space and time. I am more jealous of the latter than the former. We can always recover lost ground, but never lost time.
~Field Marshal August Grief Gneisenau
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Admiral Horatio Nelson…whose mind never rested, who calculated the relative positions of ships and shorelines as a master chess player does pieces and squares, who consumed information of every sort with the compulsion of an addict, who sought decision in battle with the relentlessness of a great financier poised to obliterate his commercial competitors.
Intelligence in War John Keegan
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Four Dimensional RealityTactical Operations always unfold in at least four dimensions
Space (Length, Width & Height)♦ Maneuver Elements are Physical
Personnel, Vehicles & Supplies
Time♦ Maneuver Elements are Intangible
Actions, Events, Circumstances & Opportunities
Three Major Factors for Maneuvering in Time♦ Density, Initiative and Tempo
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All Planning Attempts to Alter the FutureConsequently, All Planning is Future OrientedThe Future is Plural!
Tactics or Timing24
Tactical Operations are Always Time Sensitive
Some are Time Competitive
Opportunities are always linked with Time
Initiative is linked with Time
Tempo is a measurement of Speed
When is as Important as How!23
• Maneuver in Space is measured in Distance♦ Early Identification and Control of Key Terrain is Critical
• Maneuver in Time is measured in Speed♦ Ability to Recognize and Exploit Opportunities is Critical♦ Opportunities are Elusive, Sporadic and Fleeting
Four Dimensional Maneuver22
Density• Density in Space refers to the Numbers of Personnel,
Vehicles, and so forth
• Density in Time refers to the Quantity of Activities per Unit of Time
• Congestion occurs in Time as well as Space♦ OBE Concept
• OBE Countermeasures♦ “Clearing the Decks” by Removing Distractions♦ Demanding Standard Formats♦ Insisting on Recommendations from Trusted Subordinates♦ Delaying Nonessential Decisions
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What Difference Does it Make Who Goes First?
Initiative• Initiative means the Freedom of Action or
the Ability to “Carry Through”
• This Corresponds to Power
• Implied Objective of every tactical operation is to gain and maintain the initiative
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• Tempo - the Speed or Rhythm of Activity
• Like Initiative, Tempo Provides Freedom of Action
• Provides Opportunities through Surprise
• Tempo is Relative, NOT Fast, only Faster
Tempo20
AsymmetricStrategy
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“fight the fight that fits one’s weapons, and make [asymmetric] weapons to fit the fight”
Unrestricted WarfareQiao Liang & WangXiangsui
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“there are no rules, nothing is forbidden.”
16 Unrestricted WarfareQiao Liang & WangXiangsui
MIGvs. the F-8612
Machines don't fight wars
Terrain doesn't fight wars
Humans fight wars
You must get into the mind of humans
That's where the battles are won
Col. John (Jack) Boyd
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Boyd’s Cycle• Creation of Col. John Boyd
USAF (Ret.)
• Just as Often Called the “OODA Loop”
• It is Descriptive, Rather than Prescriptive in Nature
• It is Dynamic and Repetitive!
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Boyd’s Cycle OBSERVATION
• Becoming Aware of the Physical Surroundings, Lighting Conditions, Weather, Terrain, the Adversary, Ourselves
• The First Step in Separating the Relevant from the Volume
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Boyd’s Cycle ORIENTATION
• Situation is too Chaotic and Fluid to Process Information as Fast as We Can Observe It
• Requires a “Freeze-Frame” Concept to Provide a Perspective
• Orientation Provides the Foundation for Understanding
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OBSERVE DECIDE ACT
OBSERVE
ORIENTORIENT
CULTURALTRADITIONS
NEWINFORMATION
TRAINING andEXPERIENCE
GENETICHERITAGE
ANALYSESAND
SYNTHESIS
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Boyd’s Cycle DECISION
• Takes into Account All Factors Present at the time of our Orientation
• Conclusions are Drawn Based Upon our Understanding
• Decisions Must be Made to Influence the Outcome
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Boyd’s Cycle ACTION
• Actions Without Decisions are Reckless and Decisions without Actions are Pointless
• Implementation of the Decision
• Because Actions will Change the Situation, the Cycle Begins Again
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A Better Way to Think of OODA “Loop” Speed
Observe Decide Act
Action(Test)
ImplicitGuidance
& Control
ImplicitGuidance
& Control
Observations
UnfoldingCircumstances
OutsideInformation
FeedForward
Orient
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Paradigm
We observe it
We understand it
We react to it more quickly than the competition
Fast Cycle Conventional
• Claims Internally: enhance innovation, increase productivity, and improve quality.
• Externally: better anticipate market trends, more quickly respond to competitors’ actions, enhance customer loyalty.
• Leading to: increased market share and improved margins
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Strategy a la BoydA Modern Paradigm of Conflict
If necessary, immediately frustrate opponents’ designs so that we may
Use agility (rapid OODA speed) to:
♦ Confuse their decision processes♦ Damage their morale♦ Open up vulnerabilities♦ Exploit vulnerabilities
Continue with Step 2 until the enemy surrenders or is defeated.
• Probe and test adversary to unmask weakness
• Interweave menace, uncertainty, and mistrust
• Move along paths of least resistance
• Exploit differences, frictions and obsessions (within) the adversary
• Subvert, disorient, disrupt, overload, or seize adversary’s critical connections, centers, and activities
• .
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OODA LOOP
GOAL 1Speed up your cycle from a quickness
perspective
OBSERVE
DECIDEORIENT
ACT
3
OODA LOOP
GOAL 2Disrupt their
process; getting inside their loop
OBSERVE
DECIDEORIENT
ACT
2
“Decision Cycle” OODA Loop4
Questions?