Post on 15-Jul-2020
Aslı TAŞMAZ DADAKOĞLU
COMCEC Coordination Office
September 2016
Making Cooperation Work
For Building an Interdependent Islamic World
COMCEC
TOURISM OUTLOOK
2016
COMCEC STRATEGY
OUTLINE
‣ The Importance of Tourism for Development
‣ Tourism Trends (Demand & Supply Sides)
‣ Overview of International Tourism in the World
‣ International Tourism in the OIC Member Countries
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The Importance of Tourism for Development
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A remarkable socio-economic
phenomena
A critical sector in both advanced and developing
economies
Related to more than 185 supply-side economic activities, with
direct and indirect effects
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10 % GDP
(Direct, Indirect
and Induced)
1/11
JOBS
US $ 1.5 TRILLION IN
EXPORTS
7%
OF WORLD’S
TRADE
30 %
OF
SERVICES EXPORTS
Source: UNWTO Tourism Highlights, 2016 Edition
The Importance of Tourism for Development
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Key Tourism Trends –Demand Side
8 % 12 % 21 %
1950 2013 2050
• Active travelers
• Highly personalized services
• Soft adventure for «feeling young»
• Health and wellness products
Share of global population
over the age of 60
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Source: Horwart HTL Tourism Megatrends, 2016
Key Tourism Trends –Demand Side
Generation Y (Millennials)
• 50 % of all travelers by 2025
• Technology is essential!!!
Generation Z (iGen – 6-20 ages)
• Different from Generation Y
• Spend parents’ money faster
• High level of involvement in digital trends
• Higher access to information
• A more dynamic lifestyle
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Source: Horwart HTL Tourism Megatrends, 2016
Key Tourism Trends –Demand Side
1.8 3.2 4.9
2009 2020 2030
Middle Class Population
(in billion)
• The increase in average income results in a
growing middle class
• Look for value for Money (choose low cost
airlines, trains etc. & discounted tickets)
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Source: Horwart HTL Tourism Megatrends, 2016
Key Tourism Trends –Demand Side
• Increase in the weight of emerging economies
• 10 cities are from the Middle East and Asia in
the top 20 global destinations by international
overnight visitors.
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Emerging Destinations
57 % of Total
Arrivals
2030
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Source: Horwart HTL Tourism Megatrends, 2016
Key Tourism Trends –Supply Side
35%
35%
30%
25%
20%
16%
10%
7%
4%
2%
33%
Website of Country /Destination
Website of Accommodation/Hotel
Social Media
Website of Fligtht/Train etc.
Reservation/Booking Websites
Website of Tour Operators
Website for Price Comparison
Official Websites of Embassies
Articles in Internet Magazines
Sites with Official Tests of Institutes
Others
INTERNET INFORMATION SOURCES
Source: ITB World Travel Trends Report 2015-2016
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Key Tourism Trends –Supply Side
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«Sharing
Economy»
Airbnb
(Accommodation Sharing)
Uber
(Car Sharing) 39,5
25,5
25,4
16,3
15,3
12,9
HILTON WORLDWIDE
AIRBNB
MARRIOTT INTERNATIONAL
STARWOOD HOTELS&RESORTS
WYNDHAM HOTEL GROUP
ACCORHOTELS
Global Hotel Groups Market Capitilisation vs Airbnb (Billion US $)
Source: Hospitality On, 2015
Sharing Economy will reach to
$ 335 billion by 2025. (Source: PWC)
Key Tourism Trends –Supply Side
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Source: WTTC, 2016
13
21
24
27
Safety andSecurity Issues
Diseases EnvironmentalDisasters
Political Unrest
Time to Recover from Crises for Tourism (months)
Key Tourism Trends –Supply Side
Tourism Sustainable
Tourism
Sustainable Tourism is defined as:
« tourism that respects both local people and the traveler,
cultural heritage and the environment»
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International Tourist Arrivals
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(Millions)
* Forecast
Source: World Tourism Organization
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678
807
929 894
950 994
1.040 1.088
1.134 1.186
8,1
5,9
2
-3,9
6,5 5,1 4,2 4,7 4,2 4,6
2000 2005 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015*
Number of tourists (millions of people) Tourists' Annual change (percent)
International Tourism- Market Share
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Africa 4%
Americas 19%
Asia/ Pacific 16%
Europe 57%
Middle East 4%
2000
Africa 5% Americas
16%
Asia/ Pacific 24%
Europe 51%
Middle East 5%
2015
Tourist Arrivals
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Source: UNWTO, Tourism Highlights 2014 & World Tourism Barometer, Volume 14, July 2016
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International Tourism Receipts
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(Billion $)
* Forecast
Source: World Tourism Organization
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495
706
987
905
986 1.104
1.146 1.241
1.309 1.260
4,5
7,3
6,3
-4,1
8,2 7,7 4,8
8,2 5,5
-3,8
2000 2005 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Tourism receipts (billion dollars) Receipts' Annual change (percent)
International Tourism- Market Share
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Africa 2%
Americas 28%
Asia/ Pacific 18%
Europe 49%
Middle East 3%
2000
Africa 3% Americas
24%
Asia/ Pacific 33%
Europe 36%
Middle East 4%
2015
Tourism Receipts
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Source: UNWTO, Tourism Highlights 2014 & World Tourism Highligths 2016
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Estimates and Forecasts for Travel&Tourism
Economic Impact in OIC Member States
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COMCEC 2015
($ billion)1
2015
% of total
2016
Growth2
2026
$ billion1
2026
% of total Growth3
Direct contribution to GDP 213.3 3.4 3.5 352.2 3.5 4.8
Total contribution to GDP 551.2 8.7 3.8 926.7 9.3 4.9
Direct contribution to
employment4 15,393 2.8 1.7 19,980 2.8 2.5
Total contribution to
employment4 39,716 7.1 1.9 52,203 7.3 2.6
Leisure spending 287.4 2.6 3.3 478.0 2.7 4.9
Business spending 89.9 0.8 5.3 142.2 0.8 4.2
Capital investment 99.1 6.3 5.2 175.7 6.9 5.4
12015 constant prices and exchange rates; 2 2016 real growth adjusted for inflation (%); 3 annual real growth adjusted for inflation; 4000 jobs Source: WTTC, Economic Impact 2016 Report-COMCEC
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International Tourism in the OIC Member Countries
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(Millions)
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(Billion $)
152 157
163 159
178 173
114 117
124 127
140 131
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
OIC Tourist Arrivals (millions) OIC Tourism Receipts (Billion $)
Source: UNWTO and projections of COMCEC
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Tourist Arrivals in OIC Regions
(OIC-MENA, OIC-Asia, and OIC-Sub-Saharan Africa)
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(Millions)
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28 27 30 36 39 39 42 46 47 48 51 50
61 68
62 71
82 85
102 104 108 104
119 116
4 5 5 6 6 7 8 8 8 7 8 7
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
OIC-ASIA OIC MENA OIC SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA
Source: UNWTO and projections of COMCEC
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Tourism Receipts in OIC Regions
(OIC-MENA, OIC-Asia, OIC-Sub-Saharan Africa)
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(Billion $)
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15 15 17 22
26 25 30 33
36 38 41
36
47
55 56 63
78 71
81 81 83 84
95 89
2 2 2 3 4 3 3 4 5 5 5 5
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
OIC-ASIA OIC MENA OIC SUB-SAHARAN AFRICASource: UNWTO and projections of COMCEC
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Top-10 countries hosted 137.9 million international tourist in 2015.
Top 10 OIC Tourism Destinations in International Tourist
Arrivals (2015)
(Thousands)
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Source: UNWTO, Tourism Highlights 2016 & Tourism Barometer Volume 14, July 2016
* 2013 data, **2014 data
39.478
25.721
17.994
10.408 10.177 9.990 9.139 5.237 5.163 4.560
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Top-10 countries earned US$ 109 billion as international tourism receipts in 2015.
Top 10 OIC Tourism Earners in International Tourism
(2015)
(Billion $)
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26.616
17.597 16.038
10.761 10.130
6.857 6.065 6.003 5.035 4.065
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Countries by Major Surplus on Travel Balance- 2015
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Source: UNWTO, 2016
Tourism Receipts Tour. Expenditures Balance
2013 2014 2015 2013 2014 2015 2013 2014 2015
Turkey 28.0 29.6 26.6 4.8 5.1 5.4 23.2 24.5 21.2
Malaysia 21.5 22.6 17.6 12.2 12.4 10.5 9.3 10.2 7.1
Morocco 6.9 7.1 6.0 1.3 1.4 1.4 5.5 5.6 4.6
Egypt 6.0 7.2 6.1 3.0 3.1 3.4 3.0 4.1 1.7
Indonesia 9.1 10.3 10.7 7.7 7.7 7.3 1.4 2.6 3.4
UAE 12.4 14.0 16.0 13.8 14.4 15.1 -1.4 -0.4 0.9
S. Arabia 7.7 8.2 10.1 17.7 24.1 20.7 -10.0 -15.9 -10,6
Kuwait 0.3 0.4 - 11.6 11.3 - -11.3 -10.9 -
Qatar 3.5 4.6 5.0 6.6 8.7 8.2 -3.1 -4.1 -3.2
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Recent Developments in the OIC Member Countries
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‣ Turkey realized 22% decrease in arrivals and 21%
decrease in receipts for first 4 months of 2016.
‣ Turkey's tourism industry is facing with difficult times with
regional insecurity and domestic issues affecting the image of
country as a destination.
‣ Positive signals from Russian market by allowing charter
flights to Turkey.
‣ Incentives for tourism SMEs
‣ New tour packages for China and India.
Source: UNWTO, BMI Research 2015
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Recent Developments in the OIC Member Countries
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‣ In 2015, Malaysia realized 6% decrease in arrivals, 22%
decrease in receipts. However, the country reported 3%
growth in arrivals and 1% decrease in receipts through
March 2016.
‣ Decreases in arrivals due to declines in visitors from
China, Australia, Singapore and Japan.
‣ Malaysia has launched e-visa service for visitors from
China, effective 1 March 2016.
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Source: UNWTO
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Recent Developments in the OIC Member Countries
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‣ Indonesia reported increases in arrivals (+8%) and
receipts (+5%) for the 5 months of 2016.
‣ As well as improving international air connections,
Indonesia is also expanding connectivity across its
many islands.
Source: UNWTO
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Recent Developments in the OIC Member Countries
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‣ Tunisia posted 19 % decrease in arrivals (Jan-May
2016) and 50% decrease for the 1stQ of 2016.
‣ Sierra Leone has rebounded after Ebola virus outbreak,
with arrivals quadrupling (310% increase) from January
to June compared to 2015.
‣ Morocco recorded a slight decline in arrivals (1%) and
7% increase in receipts for 4 months of 2016.
‣ Qatar posted 3% decrease in arrivals and 1% increase
in receipts for first months of 2016.
Source: UNWTO
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Recent Developments in the OIC Member Countries
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‣ Lebanon (10%), Oman (10%) and Saudi Arabia (7%)
recorded significant growths.
‣ Egypt realized significant declines (-49%) in arrivals for
the 5 months of 2016.
‣ Continued struggle, following the insurgency attacks
in 2015, the Russian plane crash in October and
travel advisories from major source markets such as
the Russian Fed. and United Kingdom.
Source: UNWTO
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Tourism Opportunities and Challenges
for the OIC Member Countries
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Opportunities
Natural Resources
Cultural Resources
Human Resources
Authenticity and newness
Price competitiveness
Dynamism
Challenges
Insufficient Tourism Investment &Infrastructure
POOR TOURISM PLANNING&PRODUCT DEVELOPMENT
Travel Facilitation Problems
Safety and Security Related Problems
Low Tourism Service Quality
INSUFFICIENT MARKETING AND PROMOTION
Insufficient Image Building and Branding
LACK OF TOURISM DIVERSIFICATION
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Muslim Friendly Tourism (MFT)
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Muslim Friendly Tourism
Increasing awareness
Expanding numbers of
Muslim Tourists
Developing and Marketing of MFT Products & Services
Regulations for Accommodation Establishments in the
OIC Member Countries
(2017/I Meeting)
Aslı TAŞMAZ DADAKOĞLU
COMCEC Coordination Office
September 2016
Making Cooperation Work
For Building an Interdependent Islamic World
THANK YOU
comcec@comcec.org
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