M-COMMERCE ANNO 2010

Simon Kibsgård, business consultant at Creunawith expert knowledge of mobile business

DIGITAL AGENCY. LEADING IN SCANDINAVIA. 300 PEOPLESOLUTIONS FOR THE DIGITAL AGE. ACROSS ALL DIGITAL MEDIA

LARGE CUSTOMERS B2B, B2C, B2G. FULL-SERVICE CAPABILITY

ABOUT CREUNA

SELECTED CLIENTS

© Creuna

AGENDA

Mobile and m-commerce in numbers + forecasts Who are the clients? Why is m-commerce accelerating now? Where is Denmark in this? What areas are “low hanging fruit” for m-

commerce implementations?

© Creuna 5Gartner, August 2009 & Strategy Analytics, May 2009

WORLDWIDE

Worldwide mobile phone 286.1 million units in Q2 2009 (6.1 % decrease)

Worldwide smartphone 40 million units in Q2 2009(27 % increase)

Android from Google will increase by 900% in 2009

iPhone will grow by 79% in 2009

© Creuna

PERCENTAGE OF MOBILE USERS CONSUMING MOBILE MEDIA (ADVANCED USAGE) IS GAINING 17 % A YEAR (UK)

Product: MobiLens

Data: Three month average ending June 09

Country: UK - N= 13,997

200806 200807 200808 200809 200810 200811 200812 200901 200902 200903 200904 200905 20090625.0%

26.0%

27.0%

28.0%

29.0%

30.0%

31.0%

32.0%

33.0%

34.0%

35.0%

28.3%

32.7%

% M

ark

ed

Kilde:

© Creuna 7

REVENUE MIX IN MOBILE WEB

http://www.morganstanley.com/institutional/techresearch/pdfs/2SETUP_12142009_RI.pdf

© Creuna

GLOBAL REVENUE IN MOBILE WEB (EXCEPT DATA) 2008

Estimated 37 billion USD revenue on mobile internet (data excluded) in 2008

76 % being payment for access on digital content (music, games, video, ring tones etc.)

5 % on advertising Only 19 % on goods not consumed on mobile (eg.

a pair of shoes or a new mobile phone)

http://www.morganstanley.com/institutional/techresearch/pdfs/2SETUP_12142009_RI.pdf page 82

© Creuna 9

WHEN IS MOBILE WEB ACCESSED (HOUR OF DAY) (NO)

Source: http://gallup-tns.no

OperatorWLANTotal

© Creuna

DEMOGRAPHICS: MOBILE SERVICES (UK)

Product: MobiLens

Data: Three month average ending June 09

Country: UK - N= 13,997

Higher on chart = more femaleFurther to right = olderSize of bubbles = # of users

27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 3520.0%

25.0%

30.0%

35.0%

40.0%

45.0%

50.0%

55.0%

Mobile Media Users

Browsed for News / Info

Used email

Unlimited Data Plan Subscriber

Made own ringtone

Played a game

Social Networking

News/info via App

Listened to music

Ringback

TV

On-Demand Video

Purchased a game

Purchased a Ring-tone

Median alder

% k

vin

de

Source:

© Creuna

27.0 29.0 31.0 33.0 35.0 37.0 39.0 41.038.0%

40.0%

42.0%

44.0%

46.0%

48.0%

50.0%PC Internet BrowsersPC Internet Social

Networkers

Mobile Browsers for News and Info

Mobile Social Net-workers

PC Internet vs Mobile Internet Demographics

Median Age

% F

emal

e

Higher on chart = more femaleFurther to right = olderSize of bubbles = # of users

YOUNGER AND LESS FEMININE(UK)

Product: MobiLens + Media Metrix

Data: Three month average ending June 09

Country: UK - N= 13,997

Source:

Social media and news are moving mobile to mainstream

© Creuna

FORECAST: MOBILE PENETRATION IN EUROPA

Source: Jupiter Research European Mobile Forecast, 7/08 (Western Europe)© 2008 Jupiter Research, LLC

© Creuna

MARKET IS DRIVEN BY...

Legislation? Innovative services? Technology / platforms?(Of course, all three. Japan showed how the Fed handling of “Spectre” kickstarted the market for operators and then for service providers, by not charging billions for 3G licenses. Innovative services like Google Maps mobile, Latitude, FourSquare, Goggles, Facebook Mobile can create a need for mobile connectivity. In Japan Flash technology is available on all devices giving a common platform for applications across devices. In Europe it seems that Mobile Internet is the first real common ground – but what a great platform!)

© Creuna

THE INTRODUCTION OF A GAME CHANGERiTunes, app stores and smartphones

Distribution of mobile content just got a super mall After little more than 2 years iPod Touch + iPhone reached 57 mil.

users. i-mode in Japan didn’t reach half as many on a far more homogeneous market

App Store as Gatekeeper / revenue share model / security enforcement

Java capable platforms are still the largest business, but app stores are introducing an intuitive and user oriented distribution channel

© Creuna

WHAT’S UP WITH THOSE IPHONE USERS?

http://www.morganstanley.com/institutional/techresearch/pdfs/2SETUP_12142009_RI.pdf: side 43

© Creuna

GARTNER SAYS…

http://www.gartner.com/it/page.jsp?id=1282413

2009 2010 20130

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

Apps downloaded in app stores

Downloads (mil.)Indtægter (mil. USD)

© Creuna 17© Creuna

MOBILE PAYMENT IN DENMARK AT PRESENT

SMS tickets WAP-billing books

(1-click payment) Premium SMSes are

everywhere!

Busses, Gyldendal og parking

© Creuna

LAST WEEK DANES HAD COLLECTED 15 MIL DKK FOR HAITIAN VICTIMS. 9 MIL COLLECTED VIA PREMIUM SMS

…. And no more SMS cases for now!

© Creuna 19

NFC: THE PAYMENT METHOD THAT KEEPS US WAITINGIn Japan since 2004. In Europe from 2012?

© Creuna

MOBILE PAYMENT WITH SOME SEVERE CHALLENGESZong

© Creuna

A BRAND NEW BUSINESS MODEL

Micro financing Private money

transfers Banking

M-Pesa og micro financing

© Creuna 22

A NEW SALES CHANNEL FOR TRADITIONAL PRODUCTS

Find local resources Document the accident Submit claim …and it’s a flashlight!

Nationwide Mutual Insurance: Application as a differentiator

© Creuna 23

NEW SALES CHANNEL BY APPLICATIONArla mobile cookbook

© Creuna

WEBSHOPS AS NAVIGATORS

Mobile payment can be a hassle Good user interface is a challenge From price runners to mobile shops sending leads

to non-mobile shops

© Creunahttp://advertising.aol.com/sites/default/files/webfm/research/SmartPhone.pdf

ADVERTISING

More than 1/3 of mobile users reacted on a mobile ad: Meaning they sought more information, signed up or received a coupon

At Kansas they received 50 % - 80 % response within one hour on SMS offers!

But is mobile more engaging? More than TV? More than a poster at a bus stop? More than a desktop computer?

The whole viral deal: Mobile is much easier shared …And then there is proximity and AR

advertisements

© Creuna

SO, MOBILE IS JUST INTERNET ON A SMALLER SCREEN!!?

© Creuna 27

JULEKALENDER

A CREUNIAN CREATIVE CONCEPT ON VIRAL ADS COLLECTING LEADS FOR SALE

© Creunahttp://advertising.aol.com/sites/default/files/webfm/research/SmartPhone.pdf

COUPONS

75 % of smartphone users are positive towards receiving mobile coupons for offline buys

A coupon can be intertainment in itself A coupon can be something you make yourself

(collect bits, by submitting content to web 2.0’ish campaign, by collecting friends in Facebook app etc.)

© Creuna

CONCLUSION

The mobile device is not a tiny desktop computer (!)

Services and payment methods are to be tailored for context and mobile device capabilities

Mobile is personal (id), media for entertainment and services, billing applicable and always on and online

Infrastructure is not driven fast enough by banks and operators

All of the above is absorbed in the Apple iPhone App Store. Congratulations to Apple, now it’s up to rest of us to learn and act

THANK YOU!M-Commerce anno 2010

SIMON KIBSGÅRDBusiness consultant with expert knowledge of mobile businessM: (+45) 22 49 83 41simon.kibsgaard@creuna.dk