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Bobby Duffy
MORI Social Research Institute
Contact: 020 7347 3000
bobby.duffy@ipsos-mori.com
SocialResearchInstitute
Life satisfaction, trust and services -the importance of place
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Introduction
Where people live influences views
Obvious but underplayed?
Eg national targets/judgements taking no account of local
conditions
Look at
ratings of services
satisfaction with area
life satisfaction
trust in others
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But it is not all good news
Frontiers of performance
how much is aboutwhere you live?
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Satisfaction with Individual Councils
Modelling satisfaction - why varies and what can expect
individual authorities to achieve
One of the strongest is levels of deprivation in the area
(IMD)
More powerful than communications, or service delivery
But also ethnic diversity
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0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60
Satisfaction with council versus deprivation score
Net satisfaction with Council (+%)
Deprivation Score (IMD 2000)Base: All
Brent
Harlow
Oldham
Birmingham
Vale of White Horse
Gateshead
Correlation -0.65
Mancheste
Sunderland
Camden
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Satisfaction with Council (BVPI)
Extent of ethnic diversity
R2
= 0.3995
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8
Ethnic diversity as important as deprivation
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Satisfaction with Housing - BVPI data
R2 = 0.5786
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8
and more important in views of housing
2001 Ethnic Diversity
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MORI Frontiers Analysis
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
0 20 40 60 80
Deprivation and Ethnicity
%SatisfiedwithCounci Likely frontier of satisfaction
AverageWeak
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But it is not all good news
Views of landlord -
deprivation and diversityseen in regional
variations?
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66%
77%
73%
72%
71%
69%
68%
64%
56%
63%
71%
All
Base: c10,000 RSL tenants survey 2000
North East
East Midlands
North West
Merseyside
West Midlands
South West
Yorks & Humberside
South East
Eastern
Greater London
Satisfaction with landlord RSL tenants
+% net satisfaction with landlord
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Drivers of attitudes to landlord
On-going study for Housing Corporation backs up role ofdeprivation and ethnic diversity
Range of factors influence satisfaction beyond control oflandlord
age household composition
length of residence
level of deprivation level of ethnic diversity
dwelling type
region
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But it is not all good newsSimilar patterns on
satisfaction with areaup to a point
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30
50
70
90
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60
Satisfaction with area versus IMD
Net satisfaction with area (+%)
Deprivation Score (IMD 2000)
SandwellRushmoor
Tendring
Gateshead
Correlation -0.77Mid Suff
Suff Coastal
SurreyHeath
Mancheste
Source: MORI database of local authority surveys
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63%
74%
70%
63%
59%
59%
57%
56%
50%
53%
60%
All
North East
East Midlands
North West
Merseyside
West Midlands
South West
Yorks & Humberside
South East
Eastern
Greater London
Satisfaction with area RSL tenants
+% net satisfaction with area
Base: c10,000 RSL tenants survey 2000
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10
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85
Satisfaction with area versus deprivationscore New Deal for Community areas
Net satisfaction with area (+%)
Deprivation Score (IMD 2000)Base: All
Knowsley
Liverpool
ManchesterSheffield
Fulham Hull Islington
Brighton Tower Hamlets
Luton
NottinghamDoncasterSouthwark
Hartlepool
Sandwell
Coventry
S ti f ti ith i f lit f lif
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0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85
Satisfaction with views of quality of life versusdeprivation score New Deal for Community areas
Net satisfaction with quality of life (+%)
Deprivation Score (IMD 2000)Base: All
HullBrightonRochdale
Derby
SouthwarkBrent
Aston
Manchester
LutonLambeth
Fulham
South-
ampton
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But it is not all good newsHappiness and trust
study for Cabinet Office
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But it is not all good news
Were getting richer
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but not happier
80
100
120
140
160
180
1976 1979 1982 1985 1988 1991 1994 1997
GDP Per capita
(1973 =100)
Life satisfaction
(1973 =100)
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and were losing ground
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
19
73
19
75
19
77
19
79
19
81
19
83
19
85
19
87
19
89
19
91
19
93
19
95
19
97
19
99
20
01
%
Denmark
UK
Belgium
% very satisfied with their lives
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But it is not all good newsHow much can we
explain or predict?
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Understanding life satisfaction and trust in others
Data from British Household Panel Survey
c15,000 interviews
c250 variables on demographics, income/savings/debt,health, activities, views of housing and area, values
added area factors deprivation, ethnic diversity,
urbanity
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7 8
7 6
7 4
7 2
7 0
Life satisfaction by tenure no real difference
Base: All respondents
Own outright
Buying on mortgage
Rent from local council
Rent from HA/Trust
Rent privately
Life satisfaction score out of ten
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Understanding life satisfaction and trust in others
More sophisticated techniques
Using multiple regression
what factors most related to trust and happiness,
independent of effects of other factors
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But on ly 20% of variat ion in li fe sat isfact ion
exp lained by modelimportance of genes and early years
Life
satisfaction
-11% Want to move home
-15%
Limiting long-term
illness
-7% Single non-retired
household
-6%
Aged 35-44
-7%
Number of GP visits
6%
Talk to neighbours
5%
Agree that ordinarypeople share in wealth
21%Finances comfortable
10%Retired
5%
Do sport
Positive drivers Negative drivers
Can we predict life satisfaction?
-6%
Cannot afford visitors to
home
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Segmenting on life satisfaction
Not only technique
Also using CHAID
Chi-squared Automatic Interaction Detector
simple hierarchical segmentation
breaks down into extreme groups
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Whole populationAverage satn score = 7.5
No limiting long-termillness
Limiting long-termillness
Do not wantto move
Want tomove
Affordholiday
Not affordholiday
Not affordannualholiday
Affordannualholiday
Want tomove
Do notwant to
moveRetired Not
retiredRetired Not retired
More trusting Less trusting
The most and least happy people in the country
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Do not want
to move
Whole population
Average satn score = 7.5
No limiting long-term
illness
Limiting long-term
illness
Retired
No problemswith arms/legs
Finances
comfortable
Live in less
diverse areas
Not afford
holiday
want
to move
Most satisfied group2% of population
Average satisfaction score of 9
Least satisfied group
2% of the population
Average satisfaction score of 5.5
The most and least happy people in the country
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The happiest people
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But it is not all good newsTrust too
a key measure ofsocial capital?
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2
3
4
5
6
959 98 997
% who think most people can be trusted
World Values Survey quoted in lectures by
Richard Layard 2002/3 Happiness: has social science a clue?
We are losing trust in each other
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But it is not all good newsSome differences by
tenure
T i h b
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4 1
3 9
3 7
2 6
2 1
Trust in others by tenure
Base: All respondents
Own outright
Buying on mortgage
Rent from local council
Rent from HA/Trust
Rent privately
Trust in others score out of ten
T t i th iddl l l ?
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15% of variation in trust in others explained by model
Trust in
others
-10% Aged 25-34
-10% Aged 16-24
-7% Limiting long-termillness
-6%
Rent from council
-7%
Vandalism/crime aproblem in area
11%Have first degree
9%
Involved in localgroups
8%
Have higher degree
6%
Finances comfortable
10%Go to theatre
9%Believe there is onelaw for rich and one
for poor
6%
Voted in last election
Positive drivers Negative drivers
Trust in others a middle class luxury?
Th t d l t t ti l i th t
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Do not want to
move
Whole population
Average trust score = 4
Have first degree Do not have first degree
Involved in
local groups
Rent from
council
Not retired
More diverse
areas
Vandalism/Crime problem
in area
Most trusting group2% of population
Average trust score of 7
Least trusting group2% of the population
Average trust score of 1
The most and least trusting people in the country
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But it is not all good news
Again area matters
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But it is not all good news
But people see lots ofreasons for decline in
community spirit
Why people think were losing community spirit
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40
35
20
17
13
11
Why people think were losing community spirit
Base: All respondents
People work lon ger hours, sohave less time for each other
People spend more timewatching TV/on in ternet
People move homemore often
and dont know others in areaMore newcomersto country,including asylum seekers
People more likely to takeadvantagethan help selves
People f in anc ial ly bett er o ffsodont need each other
23% of C2DEs
Impact of ethnic diversity in areas
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Impact of ethnic diversity in areas
Need to be careful on role of diversity difficult to
disentangle from factors associatedwith ethnic diversity
urbanity, mobility deprivation and inequality
And more general and complex changes to way living
But lower trust in more deprived areas ties in withUS/Australian/other work
And in any case shows continuing importance of area
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But it is not all good newsConclusions and
questions
Conclusions and questions
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Conclusions and questions
Where people lives affects their attitudes
And who you serve affects how difficult you job is and how
you are rated key factors
objective quality of service
complexity of needs
cultural factors that affect survey responses
Limited amount we can do about levels of life satisfaction
and trust? but role of early years and higher education seems
clear
Need more and better local area indicators
Conclusions and questions
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Conclusions and questions
Is nature of population/area served taken into account
enough when assessing RSL performance?
How do we take account of area factors when you servedispersed populations? Need for a test study?
What can we do to manage increasing diversity better?What are best ways to give people more meaningful
interaction give people greater local control of services/
areas?
Were used to allocating resources on basis of deprivation
do we need to consider allocating resources on basis of
diversity as well?
SocialR h
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ResearchInstitute
Thank youQuestions, Comments?
Bobby Duffy
MORI Social Research Institute
Contact: 020 7347 3000
bobby.duffy@ipsos-mori.com
Most Need Improving in Local Area - GreatBritain (1)
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43
29
28
27
25
23
22
18
17
16
Britain (1)
% Select
Q Thinking about th is local area, which o f these th ings, i f any , do youthink most need impro ving ? Again, you may ch oo se up to f ive
Low level traffic congestion
Road/pavement repairs
Activities for teenagers
Low level of crime
Public transport
Facilities for young children
Clean streets
Shopping facilities
Job prospects
Health services
Base: 2,031 GB adults aged 15+, 18-22 October 2001
40
36
29
25
27
27
22
16
15
17
Urbanareas
%
Most Need Improving in Local Area - GreatBritain (2)
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16
13
12
11
10
7
7
7
4
4
Britain (2)
Access to nature
% Select
Q Thinking about th is local area, which o f these th ings, i f any , do youthink most need impro ving ? Again, you may ch oo se up to f ive
Sports and leisure facilities
Low level pollution
Community activities
Race relations
Base: 2,031 GB adults aged 15+
Open spaces
Access to culture
Wage levels/Cost of living
Base: 2,031 GB adults aged 15+, 18-22 October 2001
Affordable decent housing
Education provision
14
13
11
7
8
7
9
9
5
5
Urbanareas
%
Whats it Like where the ABs Live? (21% of pop)
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What s it Like where the ABs Live? (21% of pop)
Sport and leisure
facilities
Low pollution
Job prospects
Open spaces
Access to culture
Low traffic
congestion
Community
activities
Race relations
Road maintenence
Facilities for young
children
Access to nature
Wage levels
Clean Streets
Transport
Shopping Health
Activities for teenagers
Crime
Housing
0
10
20
30
40
50
0 10 20 30 40 50 60
Education
Need Improving
Important
The Picture where DEs Live (30% of pop)
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The Picture where DEs Live (30% of pop)
Need Improving
Important
Sport andleisure facilities
Low pollution
Job prospects
Open spacesAccess to
culture
Low traffic
congestion
Community
activities
Race relations
Road
maintenance
Facilities for
young children
Access tonature
Wage levels
Clean StreetsTransport
Shopping
Health
Activ ities forteenagers
Crime
Housing
0
10
20
30
40
50
0 10 20 30 40 50 60
Education
Less bothered
about transport,traffic than ABs
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But it is not all good newsA key measure of
social capital?
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But it is not all good newsCivic engagement and
local networks strongregional differences
High reciprocity by region
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58%
57%
56%
56%
55%
53%
52%
52%
48%
41%
g p y y g
Source: Social capital module of the General Household Survey 2000
South West
Eastern
West Midlands
South East
East Midlands
North East
Yorkshire & the Humber
North West
London
England
Feel neighbours look out for each other, done/received a favour
High neighbourliness score - by region
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40%
39%
39%
33%
33%
33%
32%
30%
29%
21%
g g y g
Source: Social capital module of the General Household Survey 2000
South West
Eastern
West Midlands
South East
East Midlands
North East
Yorkshire & the Humber
North West
London
England
Know, speak to, trust neighbours, do/receive favours etc
Feel civically engaged by region
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22%
20%
20%
19%
19%
18%
17%
17%
15%
14%
y g g y g
Source: Social capital module of the General Household Survey 2000
South West
Eastern
West Midlands
South EastEast Midlands
North East
Yorkshire & the Humber
North West
London
England
Involved in local organisations, feel informed, feel can influence local decisions etc
Successful Community
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y
What makes a community successful?
Nation as a whole
Friends/friendly neighbours(68%)
A stable population (38%)
Good local schools (29%) Focal point (28%)
People having same outlook
(23%)Mix of people (19%)
EMGs
Friends/friendly neighbours (47%)
Mix of people (29%)
People having same cultural
background (24%)
People having same outlook (21%)
People speaking same language
(21%)
Focal point (20%)
common themes amongall ethnic groups
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But it is not all good newsRegions count and the
North East countsdouble
Regional Factors
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g
Consistent regional differences - and over time
North seem to be happiest with services, Eastern/SouthEast least
Across range of services including some services where
actual performance should be fairly consistent
Link to underlying political beliefs?
but still evident when control for voting intention
Link to expectations?
Expectations of NHS by Region
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-8%
18%
-3%
-5%
-6%-6%
-10%
-12%
-12%
-13%
-13%
-14%
All
Base: 3,873 adults aged 18+ 2003: MORI Delivery Index Aggregate Data
North East
West Midlands
Eastern
South East
South West
Scotland
Yorks & Humberside
Greater LondonWales
North West/Merseyside
East Midlands
% thinking it will get better
Expectations of Education by Region
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6%
18%
18%
11%
10%
6%
5%
3%
1%
1%
1%
10%
All
Base: 3,873 adults aged 18+ 2003: MORI Delivery Index Aggregate Data
North East
Scotland
East Midlands
North West/MerseysideWales
West Midlands
South West
Yorks & Humberside
South East
Eastern
Greater London
% thinking it will get better
Expectations of Policing by Region
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3%
19%
13%
6%
4%
3%
3%
2%
0%
-1%
-1%
-5%
All
Base: 3,873 adults aged 18+ 2003: MORI Delivery Index Aggregate Data
North East
Greater London
Scotland
West MidlandsYorks & Humberside
East Midlands
South West
Wales
Eastern
South East
North West/Merseyside
% thinking it will get better
Expectations of Public Transport by Region
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-12%
11%
4%
-5%
-11%-14%
-15%
-16%
-19%
-20%
-21%
-23%
Base: 3,873 adults aged 18+ 2003: MORI Delivery Index Aggregate Data
% thinking it will get better
All
Greater London
Scotland
Wales
North West/MerseysideWest Midlands
Eastern
North East
East MidlandsSouth West
Yorks & Humberside
South East
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But it is not all good news
Not just party support
Non-Labour voters - expectations of NHS by Region: evenTory/Lib Dem North Easterners are cheerful
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-20%
-2%
-14%
-17%
-17%-19%
-21%
-22%
-25%
-25%
-25%
-25%
y/
All
North East
East Midlands
Greater London
WalesNorth West/Merseyside
South East
West Midlands
Eastern
South West
Scotland
Yorkshire & Humberside
% thinking it will get better
Base: 2,712 Non- Labour voters aged 18+ 2003: MORI Delivery Index Aggregate Data
Same on policing........
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-3%
12%
6%
-1%
-2%-2%
-2%
-2%
-5%
-7%
-11%
-12%
All
North East
Greater London
Yorks & Humberside
East MidlandsSouth West
Scotland
West Midlands
North West/Merseyside
Eastern
South East
Wales
% thinking it will get better
Base: 2,712 Non- Labour voters aged 18+ 2003: MORI Delivery Index Aggregate Data
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But it is not all good newsalso correlates with
patient experience inhealth
Only a weak relationship between rating of Primary CareTrust health services and deprivation
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0 6
0 65
0 7
0 75
0 8
0 85
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60
Aggregate rating score
Deprivation Score (IMD 2000)Source: MORI
Bradford
Newham
SouthLiverpool
Redbridge
Mid Devon
Correlation -0.32
But strong link with ethnic diversity
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0 6
0 7
0 8
0
Ethnic diversity
Aggregate rating score
Source: MORI
Lambeth
Bradford
Heart of
Birmingham
Newham
Barking and
Dagenham
Preston
Thurrock
Correlation -0.70
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But it is not all good newsViews of health servicesare definitely nothing to
do with your chances of
dying
iews of Primary Care Trust health services versusStandardised Mortality Ratios (SMR)
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0 6
60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 100 105 110 115 120 125 130
SMR
Aggregate rating score
Source: MORI
EastSurrey
Bradford
Tower
Hamlets
SE Dorset
Slough
Mid Devon
Newham
Bedford
Medway