LATIN AMERICA AND GLOBAL GHG LATIN AMERICA AND GLOBAL GHG EMISSIONSEMISSIONS

0

200400

600

800

10001200

1400

16001800

2000

(c) WWF-Canon / Juan PRATGINESTOS

TROPICALDEFORESTATION

GLOBAL CO2 EMISSIONS AND GLOBAL CO2 EMISSIONS AND DEFORESTATIONDEFORESTATION

~80% Fossil Fuel ~20% Land Deforestation

DEFORESTATION VS FOSSIL FUELSDEFORESTATION VS FOSSIL FUELS

699.5

374.5

190.8

116.1

39.3 26.4

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

Indonesia Brazil Malaysia Myanmar Venezuela Mexico

MAJOR DEFORESTATION COUNTRIES (2000)

WRI (2005)GHGs (MtC eq)

DEFORESTATION IN THE BRAZILIAN AMAZON DEFORESTATION IN THE BRAZILIAN AMAZON (2003)(2003)

Fonte: INPE PRODES Digital, 2004.Fonte: INPE PRODES Digital, 2004.

DeforestationDeforestation 2002/20032002/2003

Deforestation until 2002Deforestation until 2002

•2.4 millions ha/yr deforested

•60 millions ha deforested

•16% of Brazilian Amazon

2050 BUSINESS AS USUAL

•Deforested 2,698,735 km2 (16 PgC by 2050)•Forest 3,320,409 km2

•Non-forest 1,497,685 km2

500 km Soares-Filho et al. 2004

2050 ALTERNATIVE SCENARIO

•Deforested 1,655,734 km2 (Reduction: 40%)•Forest 4,363,410 km2

•Non-forest 1,497,685 km2

500 km Soares-Filho et al. 2004

Solutions:- Public governance & Law enforcement- Land use management- Sustainable forest management- Protected areas

ENERGY SECTOR

IN BRASIL

By 2020- Growth in power consumption slashed by 40%- Power avoided = five times the Itaipu hydropower plant - USD 15 Billion savings, 10M new jobs

0

100000

200000

300000

400000

500000

600000

700000

800000

900000

2004 BAU PSW - 2020

Hydropower

Natural Gas

Oil

Coal

Nuclear

Biomass

Wind power

Small hydro

SolarFotovoltáicoImports

0

20

40

60

80

2004 2020BAU Scenario PSW Scenario

SOLUTION 1 DOMESTIC APPLIANCES

Represent a 1/3 of residential power demand

According to IEA, potential for large power savings

By 2020, ambitious efficiency standards would:

Reduce average refrigerator consumption by 40%

Energy savings of over 4.5 Billion USD

• 1/3 of home electricity bills, 8% of national power needs

• Consumers’ cost ~ $ 10

• $ 1800 in electricity generation and distribution

• Electric water heating for 5 million new homes = one large dam in the Amazon or 5 coal fired power station

THE PROBLEM ELECTRIC WATER HEATERS

SOLUTION 2SOLAR WATER HEATERS

• Consumers’ cost ~ 1100 for 4-people solar water heater

• Monthly power bill cut by up to 50%, bay-back period of 3 years

• Architectural and consumers’ credit barriers

• Growing production/trade of biofuels

• Biofuels are a climate solution provided the reduce GHGs emissions

• Potential pilot project in Brazil to produce sustianable biofuels (eg biofuels supply for the bus fleet of the London Greater Authority

SOLUTION 3BIOFUELS