Lecture L17 THE MOBILE REVOLUTION

Why is the mobile phone so important to us?

Q1

400M daily circulations of all newspapers 800M registered cars 900M total cable/satellite TV subscribers 1.1B of all types of computers (PC, netbooks...) 1.2B total landline phones 1.5B total TV sets 1.7B total unique holders of credit cards 2.1B total unique holders of bank accounts 3.9B total FM radios in use

Mobile Phones

7.4 billion connections worth $1.3 trillion/yearhttps://gsmaintelligence.com/

There are more mobile phones in the world than there are toothbrushes

Mobile Phones

Will grow to 8 billion phones in the next few years

Image:  Nokia

Mobile Phones

Why is the mobile phone so important to us?

Q1

Survival

In 2011, there were 48 million people in the world who have a mobile phone but do not have electricity at home

Mobile Phones provide safety

Cisco,  January  2011

The Digital RevolutionThe enabling technologies

Early Systems

The First Cell phone (1973) Name:  Motorola  Dyna-­‐TacSize:  9  x  5  x  1.75  inches Weight:  2.5  pounds Display:  None Number  of  Circuit  Boards:  30Talk  time:  35  minutes Recharge  Time:  10  hours Features:  Talk,  listen,  dial

Microchip

Digital Signal Processor

Mobile phones became practical in the 1980s

Technical Improvements

Cellular NetworksRadio network made up of radiocells

Tower and base

Base stations connect to Mobile Telephone Switching Office MTSO

SID – System identification Code

SIM-cards

Cellular Networks

Handoff Calls are automatically moved from one cell to the nextMTSO controls the switch

Roaming Connecting from one phone company to another

Cellular Networks

Lessons Learned: Cellular Phones

▪ Mobile phones provide safety ▪ The most common device of all ▪ Mobile phones are not practical until 1980s

due to size of technology – Adjacent Possible

▪ The invention of the microchip played crucial role in the development of cell phones

1G Analog

1G Analog

1980sVoice onlyNMT, AMPS, FDMA

Early systems were in Bahrain, US, Japan and in the Nordic countries

First international systemwas NMT in the Nordic

Frequency Division Multiple Access - FDMA

1G Analog

Q2 When the first mobile phones become possible, how does the market evolve?

NMT in NordicsAMPS in the USTACS in UKC-Nets in West GermanyRadiocom 2000 in FranceRTMI/RTMS in Italy

1G Analog

Q3 What are the characteristics of the first mobile phones and who where the users?

BigExpensiveLimited

CharacteristicsBusiness usersField users

Mobira  Talkman   frá  Nokia

1G AnalogEarly users

Q4 Early on multiple system were developed all over Europe. What was the problem with that?

Multiple standards – roaming is a problem

In the US this is not a problem

1G Analog

European countries decide to define common standard – digital Work on a Global System for Mobile Communication (GSM) starts 1982

1G Analog

2G Digital

1990sVoice and data9.6 – 14.4 KbpsGSM, TDMA

Downloading 3 min. MP3 song: 31-41 min.

2G Digital

Digital mobile phones appear in early 90s

GMS takes off in 1991 – unites Europe

Time Division Multiple Access – TDMA

2G Digital

Copyright  ©  2011,  Ólafur  Andri  Ragnarsson

Q5US is slow to adopt 2G, why?

US was slow in adopting 2G because roaming worked well

Digital did not add enough over analog

Texting and SIM cards was not known

2G Digital

GMS

Global System for Mobile Communication

Built on TDMA – Digital

Three times the capacity of analog, encryption, texting, SIM cards

GMS

GMSGSM association has 800 networks in 220 countries

TextingShort Message System allowed 160 letters

Became an accidental killer app – messages, chat, ring tones

First message sent 03.12.1992:“Merry Christmas”

Lessons Learned: Cellular Phones

▪ Cars became the first platform for phones ▪ First phones are analog ▪ Multiple standard – each country invents its

own – Problem with standards (history repeats itself?) ▪ Roaming problems in Europe call for a

standard ▪ Digital standard developed in Europe, G2 ▪ US does not have roaming problems and

gets stuck in G1

3G

Mobile networks and the Internet start toconverge

1G and 2G are circuit switched – fine for voice

The Internet is packet-switched

3G

3G Packet SwitchingIMT – 2000 was a global standard for 3Gmobile communications defined in mid-1990s

Goals: Available 2000 Data rage 2000 kbps Frequencies in the 2000 Mhz region

2000s  More  data  128+  Kbps  GPSR,  EDGE,  UMTS,  CDMA

Downloading 3 min. MP3 song: 11 sec. – 1,5 min.

3G Packet Switching

More bandwidth, more applications

Email, Images, music, movies, streaming

Based on Code DivisionMultiple Access – CDMA

3G Packet Switching

3G Solutions

Messages Browsing Apps (J2ME)

Built with limitations

Screen size, bandwidth restrictionsInput limited – one-handed keyboardLimited memory, battery life

Fragmentation nightmare

3G Solutions

Then, in 2007, the world changed

Copyright  ©  2011,  Ólafur  Andri  Ragnarsson

How does the competitionrespond?

Think aboutThe Arrogance of the Present

iPhone hit the market in June 2007

Ok, let’s check the facts five years later

http://www.businessinsider.com/iphone-­‐bigger-­‐than-­‐microsoft-­‐2012-­‐2

Copyright  ©  2011,  Ólafur  Andri  Ragnarsson

The iPhone Effect

Touch screen

Industrial strengthdesktop quality OS

Software and Userinterface

Platform for Apps

85 billion apps downloaded (Oct 14)

App market revenue is estimated to hit $77 billion by 2017

Smartphone Market

Smartphone Market

Source: Mary Meeker Slide Deck

Smartphone Market

Smartphone Market

iPhone

The App Store is to the iPhone what iTunes is to the iPod

Google Play is the same

Availability

Specialized Apps with Quality of Service – Innovation

Context

Mobile media users pick up their phone 18 times a day to consume content via apps/browser

Key TrendsMobile became

important in 2010 and will be a revenue

opportunity going forward

Source:  Morgan  Stanley

Mobile vs. Desktop

Source:  Morgan  Stanley

Mobile vs. Desktop

Any consumerbusiness that ignores the smartphone, will

likely become irrelevant

Source: Heavy Reading

Smartphones

Bandwidth on 3G mobile networks is

growing by approximately

400% annually

Source: Heavy Reading

Smartphones

Source: Skynews

SmartphonesHow long does it take to download a HD movie

3G - 1 hour4G - 40 seconds5G - 1 second

Cameron Says UK And Germany To Work On 5G, Internet Of Things

Solutions

Voice, text Apps, music, videos,

Worldwide tablet sales are predicted to grow by more than

400% over a two-year period, reaching 81.3 million units in

2012.

Tablets

The “mobile web” is just the web – there is only

one web. It’s just displayed in multiple of

screen sizes

Source:  The  Next  Big  Thing:  Mobile,  http://www.olafurandri.com/?p=408  

Apple Watch

Can they do it again?

Is Apple transforming as a company? Will US based Tech Companies disrupt the century old watch industry?

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