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WHAT MATTER MOST IN BURMA POLITICS
I. CURRENT SITUATION
At this juncture –
1. The main opposition group, the National League for Democracy (NLD) is facing a deadly
deadlock. If they want to survive legally, they have no alternatives except participating in 2010
election by the Military Junta.
2. The Junta is also facing a dilemma. The legitimacy of their proposed 2010 election depends on the
participation of opposition groups, especially NLD. However, whether NLD participates or not,
they seen to determine to carry on their own roadmap. So it can be said that their problem is not
strategic, just moral. In politics, moral is usually inferior to strategic needs.
3. The west-driven international support has reached its limit. Beyond this limit, there may be only
one way, Neo-con model, which is proved unworkable in Iraq War.
Whether we like above situation or not, it is reality. Politics is a game based on reality.
II. HISTORICAL FEATURES
Why did Burma democracy movement lead to such bitter situation? The answer may be in the history.
There are very important historical particularities in Burmese politics. They are as follows:
1. The Role of Military
Since 1962, Burmese Military has occupied entire political matrix. To turn the Military from political
organ to professional organ is the main goal of democratic movement. However, this is not an easy
task, so it cannot be implemented during a short period of time. It may be protracted process which
needs not only courage but also tolerance. We have to pass a transitional period before we get our main
goal. During this period we inevitably accommodate the military.
2. The Role of Middle Class
The road to modernity in the East (including Burma) was very different from that of the West. In
Burma there were no historic events like Industrial Revolution or Enlightenment Movement of 18th and
19th century west. Burma engaged with modern social framework through western colonialism.
Therefore, Burma’s business middle class has never become independent social force as in the west. It
heavily depended on ruling parties, the military after 1962. For this reason we can not rely on this class
for the democratic transformation. Politically the most active force in Burma is intellectual middle
class.
3. Maturity of the democratic forces
However, the maturity of the democratic forces, including intellectual is not so good. Living under the
politically gelded condition for about 50 years, (from 1962 to now), democratic Knowledge level of
Burmese people (I mean both common people and party members) is disparately low. Moreover, theinfluence of radical ideology such as Marxism was so strong in Burmese political and literary circles
that most of the popular uprising often fell into the radical black hole ultimately led to complete
eradication by the rulers or violent revolution that means civil war. This kind of outbreak will
inevitably promote the role of military in Burma’s Politics.
4. Weakness of Institutions
In 1962, the military took over and ended civilian rule. The military government consolidated its
power by institutionalizing one party state. Since then, there has been no democratic institution with
check and balance mechanism. After 1988 pro-democracy movement, various political parties
Iowa City Public Library and the International Writing Program Panel Series-October 10,2008: Glaydah Namukasa (Uganda), Lee Jang Wook (South Korea),
Rogelio Saunders (Spain), Kyaw Win (Myanmar), Ioannis Skarags (Greece). For electronic text,please visit: http :// iwp.uiowa.edu
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reemerged but all of them (including NLD) could not institutionalize their organizations to become
strong political forces. Therefore, it can be said that all the institutions in Burma (both government
institutions and political parties) are in very poor conditions.
5. Weakness of Civil Society
In Burma there are some traditional kinds of civil society. However nearly all of them are based on
religious matter and not familiar with modern democratic principles. In late 20th century and early 21st
century, a new from of civil society such as NGOs and INGOs began to emerge. However, without
systematic institutionalization and less of moral and political norms, some of them often turned to
business or semi-business organizations.
Whether we like it or not these historical features are genuine characteristics of Burmese society.
III. POLITICAL SPECTRUM
Under these circumstances, what is to be done? To answer this question, we should understand the
roles and stances of both sides (military and democratic sides) thoroughly.
-Military Side
SLOC and later SPDC successively claimed it was a coup detat government. This is the major
difference between Gen, Nay Win’s military coup in 1962 and the current junta. Actually, the nature of
current junta is transitional. However, they themselves are reluctant for democratic transition, for they
would like to grip power if they can. Nevertheless, they also realize that under constant pressures
domestically and internationally, democratic transformation is inevitable. Their proposed 7-steps Road
Map may be the reflection of their aim and stance. Although their first priority is to extend the time as
long as possible, the monk-led 2007 September uprising accelerated the Road Map process and finally
reached this current situation.
According to this point of view coming 2010 election is the benefit of September movement, so we
should not neglect it. Although the junta’s intention is to protect their power and interests by using its
new constitution, they have to allow a political democratic forces since 1988. No matter how narrow
this space is, we should play carefully in it, because we have no other choice except this one.
Various pro-military elements will surely contest this election.
-Democratic Side
Depending on their roles and stance toward 2010 election, there may be four groups of civilian
politicians. They all are in the democratic Side but their ways of thinking are very different and thus
the outcomes may be very different too.
1. First Group ---------This group represents the hardliners among opposition movements. They will
reject 2010 election and refuse to participate. Most of them are exile. (I think they have their own
interest) Some of NLD leaders may be in this group.
2.
Second Group-------They are also hardliners but they see the election as a step towards aconfrontation with the military. According to their opinion the coming election is a tactical
playground for further escalation of the conflict. Some of NLD leaders and the veteran party
(CPB) may be in this group.
In my opinion the outcomes of these two groups will be the same, violent revolution that can lead
to civil war.
3.Third Group---------This group represents moderate political forces, so-called ‘third force’.
They see the coming election strategically and they tend to expect the 2010 election may offer an
Iowa City Public Library and the International Writing Program Panel Series-October 10,2008: Glaydah Namukasa (Uganda), Lee Jang Wook (South Korea),
Rogelio Saunders (Spain), Kyaw Win (Myanmar), Ioannis Skarags (Greece).
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opportunity to break through from current dead lock. They want to seek a common ground with
military (that may be economic development) and from that ground to start confidence building
and to seek much need reconciliation for the country.
In my opinion, their thinking may be the most possible trend for future democracy but
unfortunately they are the weakest group in democratic side. Although they have not emerged as
an institutionalized political force yet, they are likely to establish their political platform to contest
the 2010 election.
4. Fourth Group--------This group represents ceasefire groups. Most of them will seek to strengthen
their legitimacy through the exiting electoral process. They may become important ally for third
force.
CONCLUSION
Realistically, the junta’s Road Map is inevitable. The military will not drop its Road Map and seek an
alternative political settlement with opposition. Any political outcomes have to go through the
military-led transitional process. To reject this process means to reject reality. To continue the
democratic course without military is impossible. Politics is art of possible. What matter most in
Burmese Politics is to deal with reality and to choose possible way realistically.
SOCIAL CHANGE:
THE FALL OF THE BERLIN WALL
Kyaw Win
Whenever I think of social change, a monumental date appears in my mind.
November 9, 1989. This is the most significant date in my life and for our country and (I believe) for the
whole world too. This historic date marked the fall of the Berlin Wall. This meant not only the end of the
Iowa City Public Library and the International Writing Program Panel Series-October 10,2008: Glaydah Namukasa (Uganda), Lee Jang Wook (South Korea),
Rogelio Saunders (Spain), Kyaw Win (Myanmar), Ioannis Skarags (Greece).
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there. We could not think about the world as a whole. When the wall disappeared, our ideologically
isolated eggshell broke, freeing our thinking and our future.
Reference------ The World Is Flat by Thomas Friedman
The Argumentative Indian by Amartya Sen
Iowa City Public Library and the International Writing Program Panel Series-October 10,2008: Glaydah Namukasa (Uganda), Lee Jang Wook (South Korea),
Rogelio Saunders (Spain), Kyaw Win (Myanmar), Ioannis Skarags (Greece).
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