Post on 24-Mar-2020
Joseph K. Magochi
Eastern Africa Power PoolEthiopia
Prospects of Cross Border Trade to Secure Africa’s Energies Future
(EAPP)
Contents
� EAPP Profile
� Regional Trade Prospects� Regional Master Plan ( Generation Mix &
Interconnections)
� Cost Benefit analysis
� Regional Market Road Map
� Project Status & Achievements
� Challenges & Way Forward
Profile: African Power Pools
� EAPP�+ Libya, BRD, DRC
� Total Area� Approx 8,561,456 Km2
� Population� 385.5 Million Inhabitants (2008)
� Electrical Consumption� 128TWh (2008_NG)
� Exports/Imports 13.4 TWh
COMELEC
EAPP
CAPP
SAPP
WAPP
Source, EAPP –MP 2011, EIA 2008
Profile:Establishment
�Setup & Location�EAPP Setup in in Feb. 2005 after signing of MOU and Headquartered in Addis Ababa Ethiopia
�Initial 7 Countries, Tanzania Joined in 2010 and Libya in 2011
�In 2006, Adopted by COMESA as a special institution for Electrical Energy in the Region
�Mission�Secure power supply for the EAPP member countries @ the lowest possible cost
Location & Countries- Sep. 2011
Current Members
� Rwanda (2005)� Burundi (2005)� DRC(2005)� Tanzania(2010)� Kenya(2005)� Ethiopia(2005)� Sudan(2005)� Egypt(2005)� Libya(2011)
Potential Members
� Somalia
� Eritrea
� Djibouti
� Uganda� South Sudan
Profile: Member UtilitiesCOUNTRY UTILITIES
ACRONYMS
TYPE OF UTILITIES
1 Rwanda Energy, Water and Sanitation Authority/SINELAC
EWSA Public
2 Burundi Régie de Production et de Distribution d’Eau et d’Electricité/SINELAC
REGIDESO Public
3 Congo (DR) Société Nationale d’Electricité/SINELAC SNEL Public
4 Tanzania Tanzania Electric Supply Company Limited TANESCO Public
5 Kenya Kenya Power KPLC Partial
6 Kenya Transmission Company KETRACO Public
7 Kenya Electricity Generation Company KENGEN Partial
8 Ethiopia Ethiopian Electric Power Corporation EEPco Public
9 Sudan Ministry of Electricity & Dams MED Public
10 Egypt Egyptian Electric Holding Company EEHC Public
10 Libya General Electricity Company of Libya GECOL Public
� Three institutions constitute EAPP Governance each with Reporting Mechanisms to COM & SCM
� Permanent Secretariat
� Regional Market Operations Centre (RMOC)
� Regional Regulatory Commission (RRC)
� Based on providing credibility of the electricity market in the perception of - member states , Electricity Supply industries and external players (investors, financial Institutions, trading partners)
General Governance Structure
Profile: Governance Structure
Regional Trade Prospects
� Potential for Good generation mix in the region:
� Hydro in DRC, Ethiopia, Uganda Tanzania, etc
� Geothermal in Kenya, Djibouti, Ethiopia, Uganda, Tanzania, etc
� Gas in Tanzania, Rwanda, and etc.
� Wind in Kenya, Ethiopia etc:
� Coal in DRC, Tanzania:
� Interconnectivity & Mechanisms for Power Trade required.
Generation Mix
Existing Systems
� Existing Interconnections
� DRC, Burundi and Rwanda associated to Ruzizi II (45 MW)
� Cross-border electrification between Uganda and Rwanda, Tanzania and Uganda
� Kenya – Uganda Interconnections
� Egypt Interconnection to Maghreb and Eastern Europe countries trough Libya and to Eastern Mediterranean trough Jordan
� Ethiopia-Sudan 220 KV:
� Ethiopia-Djibouti 283KM of 220 KV
� Ongoing interconnection projects
� Ethiopia-Kenya 500 KV HVDC:
� Ethiopia-Sudan Sudan-Egypt 500 HVDC:
� Kenya – Tanzania 400 KV / NELSAP
� Kenya-Uganda 220 KV / NELSAP:
� Uganda–Rwanda 220 KV /NELSAP:
� Rwanda-Burundi 220 KV / NELSAP:
� Burundi-DRC 220 KV / NELSAP:
� Rusumo Falls Project 80 MW:
Regional Master Plan
� EAPP Developed a Regional Master Plan (completed 2011) with an aim of analyzing all the data required to coordinate regional development for power trade. This included
�Generation Potential
�Transmission Potentials
� Interconnections
�Demand forecasting
� Full Master Plan Available at EAPP Website (http://www.eappool.org)
Regional Peak Demand Forecast
� Regional forecast shows most countries have surplus
�Members have different seasonal demand profiles. Ideal for power trade
Regional Demand Forecast (MW)
COUNTRY
Existing FUTURE TOTAL DEMAND SURPLUS
2012 2013-2030 2030 2030 2030
MW MW MW MW MW
Burundi 49 422 470 385 86
Djibouti 123 187 310 198 112
East DRC 74 1,117 1,191 179 1,012
Egypt 25,879 46,570 72,449 69,909 2,540
Ethiopia 2,179 13,617 15,796 8,464 7,332
Kenya 2,051 6,288 8,339 7,795 544
Rwanda 103 411 514 484 30
Sudan 3,951 11,310 15,261 11,054 4,207
Tanzania 1,205 4,881 6,086 3,770 2,316
Uganda 822 2,531 3,353 1,898 1,455
TOTAL 36,436 87,334 123,769 104,136 19,633
Regional Demand Forecast (GWh)
0
200,000
400,000
600,000
800,000
1,000,000
1,200,000
1,400,000
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2025 2030 2035 2038
Ge
ne
rati
on
(G
Wh
)
Burundi Djibouti DRC East Egypt Ethiopia Kenya Rwanda Sudan Tanzania Uganda
Regional Master Plan: Scenarios & Benefits
�Master Plan analyzed four scenarios� Sensitivity analysis applied to NGP-RIP and RGP-RIP
� Sensitivity 1: Only one DC line between Sudan & Egypt
� Sensitivity 2: Interconnection cost becomes double.
�Interconnection projects feasible under both scenarios.
Regional Plan – Benefit Cost Analysis
�One purpose of regional plans: Improve benefits and reduce costs in the regional system
�Regional generation and interconnection plan expected to yield highest Net Benefits.
�Gross Benefits = Savings in Generation costs (Investments and O&M)
Regional Plan – Benefit Cost Analysis
Critical Regional Generation Projects
�Eastern DRC�Ruzizi III, 145, H (2024)�Ruzizi IV, 287,H (2027)
�Ethiopia�Mandaya, 2000,H (2031)�Gibe III,1870,H (2013)�Gibe IV,H,1468 (2016)�Karodobi,H,1600 (2036)
�Rwanda�Kivu I, M,100 (2013)�Kivu II,M,200 (2033)
�Tanzania �Stieglers Gorge(I,I,II),1200 H,20/23/26)
�Uganda�Karuma,H,700 (2016)�Ayago,H,550(2023)�Murchison Falls,H,750(2032)
Critical Regional Interconnection Projects
�Ethiopia-Kenya(2000MW, 500KV-DC,2016)
��KenyaKenya-- TanzaniaTanzania(1520MW, 400KV, 2015)(1520MW, 400KV, 2015)
��EthiopiaEthiopia--SudanSudan(1600x2 MW, 500KV(1600x2 MW, 500KV--2016)2016)
�� Sudan Sudan --EgyptEgypt(2000MW, 600KV(2000MW, 600KV--DC,2016]DC,2016]
�� Rusumo Falls InterconnectionsRusumo Falls Interconnections
RPSMP&GCS 13 SCM -21
EAPP Interconnections
Regional coordination
EAPP
Target transmission system 2038
Regional Market Road MapPreliminary
StageStage #1
2013
Stage #2
2016/7
Stage #32021
MarketCurrent.
Country to country
Mostly between neighbouring
countries
Between any pair of countries
Fully trading environment
Previous arrangements
• Prev. arrangements • Bilateral Market [BTA]• Balancing Mech.
• Prev. arrangements • Bilateral Market [BTA]• Spot Market• Balancing Mech.
Liquid MarketTransactions
Market Participants
Single buyer in each country
• Single buyers• IPPs & eventually
Multipsellers- buyers (in unbundled countries)
• Multipsellers-buyers& eventually
• Single buyers
• Single buyers& eventaully
• Multipsellers- buyers
RR With few functions
RR evolves to fully established one, by the end of Stage #1
RR fully established
RR fully established
Regional Regulator
By the countries taking into account
future regional developments
• Regional Indicative Planning
• Countries encouraged to take into account in their MPs the regional planning
Same asStage #1
• Regional Indicative Planning
• Private Investors & utilities more interested in identified projects
Regional Planning
What EAPP is doing..
�EAPP is currently implementing four projects in the preliminary stage namely;� Technical assistance and capacity building to contribute the improvement of the integration of electricity market of the Eastern Africa countries, funded by the European Commission (ending March 2012)
�Master plan and Grid code study, funded by AfDB (completed)
� Technical assistance for operationalization of RMOC and RRC, funded by MFA- Norway and
� Powering progress project by USAID East Africa ( trading structures)
On-Going Components
� Harmonization of Transmission Standards (Grid Code)
� Installation and operationalization of the Communications Infrastructure/Database systems
� Development of Trading Instruments & Setup of RMOC and RCC
� Trainings & Study Tours
� Facilitation for Completion of Interconnectors within the region
�Mobilizing resources for Power Projects in the Region
Challenges so far
�Some Issues & Challenges
�Delay in the physical infrastructure development needs to be overcome-Capital Mobilization is a key Issue
� Countries that have not joined are needed for their inputs and cooperation to have agreed position and approach
�Harmonization of transmission standards is required to expand trade
Challenges so far
�Some Issues & Challenges
�Cooperation from development partners, and participation of private and public utilities required to realize master plan.
�Progressing capacity Building until commencement of power market
�Support for implementation of the master plan
Way Forward
�What is Required? �Complete implementation of the Master Plan
�Filling the Gaps on ability to trade in Each Countries Interconnections & Dispatch Centers
�Full Establishment of the Regional Market Operations Centre
�Coordination Systems & Infrastructure setup
�Full Establishment of an Independent Regulatory board (IRB)
eapp@eappool.org
http://www.eappool.org