Post on 02-Nov-2018
Issues facing the New Zealand avocado industry Discussion Document
April 2010
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DOCUMENT STRUCTURE
1. NZ Situation
2. Market Structure
3. Industry Structure
4. Issues
Harvested area of avocados in New Zealand (hectare; actual; 1974-2008)
HARVESTED AREA Following a period of flat growth during the 80’s and 90’s, harvested avocado area has been growing strongly since 1999
PAGE 4 1. Unclear whether some historical data pre 1998 is harvested/planted; Source: FAO; MAF; NZAGA; Coriolis analysis and estimates
32 20 52 113 126 153 209 321
520
992 1,062 1,217 1,225 1,236 1,296 1,314 1,314 1,314 1,308 1,260 1,274 1,288 1,273 1,210 1,229 1,248
1,423
1,637
1,890
2,249
2,563
2,902
3,267
3,641
4,073
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
CAGR (85-99) 0.1%
CAGR (99-08)
14%
CAGR (74-85)
39%
Data is harvested area not planted area1; planted area will be larger; avocados take up to 5 years to produce an initial crop
Harvested area of avocados in New Zealand (hectare; actual; 1980, 1999-2008)
AREA BY REGION Area growth is primarily coming from the Bay of Plenty and the mid/far North; very roughly speaking 2/3 of area is in the Bay and 1/3 in the mid/far North
PAGE 5 Source: Department of Agriculture (1980); NZAGA; Coriolis analysis
8 20 55 60 60 79 89 106 119 130 151 6 55 60 70 75 90 100 111 124 141 156 159
771 801 932 1,095 1,318
1,546 1,784
2,046 2,317
2,583
33
247 292
340 405
468
520
566
626
694
818
3
155 215
235
255
294
308
335
352
359
365
1980 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
Other Auckland
Bay of Plenty
Mid North
Far North
+131 +101
+1,812
+571
+210
209
1,248 1,423
1,637
1,890
2,249
2,563
2,902
3,267
3,641
4,073 +2,825
Change (99-08)
Other 4%
Auckland 4%
Bay of Plenty 63%
Mid North 20%
Far North 9%
% of harvested area (% of hectare; 2008)
New area planted into avocados by year (hectare; 00-08)
NEW AREA PLANTED New area planted into avocados peaked in 2004 and has been declining since
PAGE 6
314 338
364 374
433
347
277
164 150
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
CAGR (00-04)
8%
CAGR (00-04) -23%
Planted area does not immediately translate into harvested area; avocados
take up to 5 years to produce an initial crop
Yield in tons per harvested hectare of avocados in New Zealand (mt/hectare; actual; 1974-2008)
YIELD New Zealand yield per hectare is highly variable year-on-year
PAGE 7 Source: FAO; MAF; NZAGA; Coriolis analysis and estimates
0.6 0.6 0.6
0.1
0.6 0.6 0.3
0.7 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.8 1.0 0.9 1.0
1.3 1.6
2.0 2.0 2.3
2.7
3.6
5.1
7.4
8.9
7.2 7.0
4.7 4.6
7.9
3.4
7.4
3.7
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
Data is obviously impacted by large number of new planting coming on stream
Total production of avocados in New Zealand (mt; actual; 1974-2008)
PRODUCTION Avocado production has grown strongly, though with strong ups and downs due to big swings in yield
PAGE 8 Source: FAO; MAF; NZAGA; Coriolis analysis and estimates
19 12 30 14 78 89 67 230 320 610 660 680 800 1,000 1,300 1,188 1,300 1,670 2,030 2,500 2,550 3,000 3,500 4,300
6,300
9,235
12,608 11,852
13,249
10,638 11,764
22,955
11,042
26,761
14,866
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
CAGR (90-07)
19%
DOCUMENT STRUCTURE
1. NZ Situation
2. Market Structure
3. Industry Structure
4. Issues
0.7 1.2 1.0
1.3 0.9 1.0
1.6 1.0
2.1
1.3
1.0
1.1 1.1
1.1
1.0 1.1
2.6
1.0
2.7
1.4
99/00 00/01 01/02 02/03 03/04 04/05 05/06 06/07 07/08 08/09
Sales of avocados by market: export, domestic and processing (kg; m; 99/00-08/09)
INDUSTRY VOLUME BY MARKET Both the domestic and export markets are important; the impact of yield surges are evident
PAGE 10 Note: uses SNZ export volumes 00-05; Source: SNZ Infoshare database (custom job); NZAGA; Coriolis analysis
1.7
2.7
4.9
2.0
4.2
2.1 1.9
2.4 2.2
2.3
Export
Domestic (incl. processing)
CAGR (90-07)
5%
4%
8%
Note: YE April & NZ$
FOB or wholesale sales value per kilogram of avocados by market: export and domestic (NZ$/kg; actual; 99/00-08/09)
VALUE PER TRAY There is a wide discrepancy between what NZ customs data and NZAGA believe is received per tray
PAGE 11 Source: SNZ Infoshare database (custom job); NZAGA; Coriolis analysis
FOB/tray (NZAGA)
Domestic (incl. processing)
CAGR (99/00-08/09)
-3%
-1%
Note: YE April & NZ$
$-
$5.00
$10.00
$15.00
$20.00
$25.00
$30.00
$35.00
$40.00
$45.00
$50.00
99/00 00/01 01/02 02/03 03/04 04/05 05/06 06/07 07/08 08/09
FOB/tray (NZ customs) 6%
Issues - Some fruit sold on consignment
(e.g. by a wholesaler to greengrocers)
- Exporter must assign a “value” for the fruit when it is exported but before it is actually sold
- When fruit is exported on consignment, the value entered will be an estimate of what the exporter believes they will receive
- One way to read this chart would be that in recent low volume years, exporters have believed they would receive more than they did
- Alternatively the numbers being reported to NZAGA are incorrect/wrong
Sales of avocados by market: export, domestic and processing (NZ$m; 99/00-08/09)
INDUSTRY SALES BY MARKET IN NZ$ Industry sales are achieving little total growth; the domestic market is growing faster (and more predictably) than exports
PAGE 12 Note: domestic sales measured at first point-of-sales (not to final consumer); uses SNZ volumes but NZAGA value per tray for 00-05; 1. Uses 01/02-08-09; Source: SNZ Infoshare database (custom job); NZAGA; Coriolis analysis and estimates
$- $0.7 $0.3 $0.2 $0.2 $0.3 $0.9 $0.2 $0.4 $0.2
$8.3 $10.2 $9.2
$13.0 $13.9 $15.2 $14.2 $16.3 $15.8 $17.9
$30.2 $30.8
$29.9
$29.7 $29.6 $29.4
$39.7
$27.0
$48.5
$31.9
99/00 00/01 01/02 02/03 03/04 04/05 05/06 06/07 07/08 08/09
$38.5
$50.0
$64.7
$43.4
$54.9
$44.9 $43.7 $42.9
$39.4 $41.7
Export
Domestic
Processed
CAGR (90-07) 2.9%
0.6%
8.9%
-8.7%1
Note: YE April & NZ$
New Zealand avocado export FOB value in US$ by destination (US$m; 1996-2009)
EXPORT VALUE IN US$ BY MARKET Australia is currently the key market for New Zealand avocados, however Japan has shown strong growth over the past few years; performance in the US market appears erratic
PAGE 13 Source: UN Comtrade database (custom job); Coriolis analysis
$6.4 $6.6 $8.6 $7.6
$5.2 $8.2
$9.8
$14.1
$18.4
$25.4 $26.2 $26.7 $30.3 $30.0
$0.2 $0.6
$0.9
$7.9
$5.4 $2.4
$1.6
$0.4
$0.2
$0.1
$5.6 $0.1 $0.4
$0.0
$0.0 $0.3
$0.7
$0.6
$2.2 $0.3
$2.1 $2.2 $2.9
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Other
Taiwan
Malaysia
Hong Kong
South Korea
Singapore
Japan
USA
Australia Australia
USA Japan
$34.4 $33.2
$35.4
$26.9
$28.8
$19.7
$15.5
$12.0 $10.8 $10.7
$15.5
$12.0
$7.3 $6.6
5 year CAGR (04-09)
12%
10%
17% 39%
Clear need to diversify into new markets
Note: US$ & YE Dec (acts to smooth y-on-y variation)
Australian avocado FOB import value (US$m; 1996-2009)
AUSTRALIAN IMPORT VALUE IN US$ New Zealand is succeeding in the Australian market partially because it is the only supplier allowed past the phyto-sanitary barriers
PAGE 14 Note: Import and export values do not match for a range of reasons (e.g. timing, reporting); Source: UN Comtrade database (custom job); Coriolis analysis
$5.8 $6.4 $7.7 $9.8
$6.2 $8.1
$10.0
$14.0
$19.2
$23.9 $26.3
$24.3
$31.7 $29.2
$0.03
$0.00
$0.01
$0.10
$0.01
$0.00
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
New Zealand
Others
Japanese avocado FOB import value (US$m; 1996-2009)
JAPANESE IMPORT VALUE IN US$ Since beginning to export to Japan in 2001, New Zealand has grown to become the second largest avocado supplier; there would appear to be large potential for future growth in the Japanese market
PAGE 15 Note: Japan, like Australia, has phyto-sanitary barriers (both formal and informal); Source: UN Comtrade database (custom job); Coriolis analysis
$6.8 $8.7
$16.1 $18.2
$28.0 $24.4 $25.0
$48.5
$56.9 $57.7 $58.6 $62.6
$70.7
$7.5 $4.8
$1.4 $0.6
$0.1 $0.5 $0.0
$0.4
$0.0 $0.6 $1.9
$0.1
$0.4
$0.1 $0.3
$0.6
$0.6 $1.3
$0.3 $2.0
$2.0
$0.0 $0.0
$0.3
$0.5 $0.6
$2.2 $0.9
$0.3
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
Other
New Zealand
USA
Mexico
Mexico
USA New Zealand Others
$2 $6 $11 $19 $22 $19 $41 $55 $64
$238 $190
$464 $517
$21 $21 $59 $49
$85 $66
$101 $114 $107
$128
$74
$126
$88
$6 $6
$7 $8
$10 $10
$12 $16 $18
$19
$15
$16 $18
$0.2 $1
$1 $10
$10 $5
$4 $0.3 $0.3
$0.1
$7 $0.05
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
Others
New Zealand
Dominican Rep.
Chile
Mexico
United States avocado FOB import value (US$m; 1996-2009)
UNITED STATES IMPORT VALUE IN US$ New Zealand has been the forth largest supplier of avocados to the United States over the past decade, however volumes have been erratic
PAGE 16 Note: other displayed but not labeled for legibility; Source: UN Comtrade database (custom job); Coriolis analysis
Mexico
Chile
Dom. Rep. NZ
Total global avocado import FOB value by country/region (US$m
TOTAL WORLD IMPORT MARKET Turning to the total world import market, we find North America and Europe are the key global markets for avocados
PAGE 17 Note: Europe will include inter-EU trade (e.g. Spain to France); Source: UN Comtrade database (custom job); Coriolis analysis
Europe $667 44%
USA $623 42%
Canada $64 4%
Japan $73 5% Hong Kong $2 0% South Korea $2 0%
Australia $32 2%
UAE $4 0% Other $42 3%
North America 46%
Asia 6%
New Zealand is weak in the two largest markets representing 90% of global imports; what is required to improve performance?
Avocado consumption per capita: NZ/AU vs. select peers (kg/person; 2008)
CONSUMPTION PER CAPITA: SELECT COUNTRIES Looking a consumption per capita highlights both opportunities (Scandinavia, Japan and NZ domestic) and challenges (Australia)
PAGE 18 Note: data is apparent consumption ((production+imports-exports)/population) [aka disappearance]; Source: FAO database (custom job); UN Comtrade (custom job); CIA World Fact Book; Coriolis analysis
2.50
1.92
1.41 1.36 1.26
1.13
0.79 0.74 0.70 0.66 0.64 0.61
0.19 0.16
Australia
Spain
USA
Denm
ark
Sweden
France
Norw
ay
Canada
New
Zealand
Netherlands
Switzerland
United
Kingdom
Japan
Germ
any
There would appear to be strong potential for growth in Japan
Future growth in Australia will likely be difficult
Current NZ markets (at any scale)
There would appear to be good opportunities across Northern Europe, particularly Scandinavia
There would appear to be more potential growth in the domestic market
Export growth matrix: NZ vs. other key Southern hemisphere countries (US$; various; 2002-2007)
SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE EXPORT GROWTH MATRIX New Zealand achieves a price premium for its avocados relative to other Southern hemisphere competitors
PAGE 19 Source: UN Comtrade database (custom job); Coriolis analysis
$0
$1
$2
$3
$4
0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45% 50% 55% 60%
Chile Peru
New Zealand
South Africa
Australia
Argentina
5 year export value growth (CAGR; US$; 02-07)
FOB price US$/kg
(2007)
Size of bubble = export value in 2007 relative to others
Export growth matrix: NZ vs. top 15 global avocado exporters (US$; various; 2002-2007)
TOP 15 COUNTRIES EXPORT GROWTH MATRIX Bringing in key Northern hemisphere countries as well confirms the current price premiums New Zealand receives (it is unclear whether these are warranted or a function of Australian protectionism)
PAGE 20 Source: UN Comtrade database (custom job); Coriolis analysis
$0
$1
$2
$3
$4
0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45% 50% 55% 60%
Mexico
Chile
Spain
Israel
Italy
Greece Brazil Argentina
Morocco
Australia
Dominican Rep.
USA
South Africa
New Zealand
Peru
5 year export value growth (CAGR; US$; 02-07)
FOB price US$/kg
(2007)
Size of bubble = export value in 2007 relative to others
NZ now 6th largest global avocado exporter by value
Benchmarking total export value by select products: Chile vs. New Zealand (US$m; 2008)
EXPORT VALUE - NZ VS. CHILE A quick benchmarking of NZ with Chile across a range of horticultural exports suggests there is more potential for growth, however the industry will need to evolve more like kiwifruit than apples
PAGE 21 Source: UN Comtrade database (custom job); Coriolis analysis
$672
$88 $152
$1,378
$243
$33
$689 $644
Apples Avocados Kiwi fruit Wine
Chile
New Zealand
NZ exports $ as a % of Chile 36% 38% 454% 47%
DOCUMENT STRUCTURE
1. NZ Situation
2. Market Structure
3. Industry Structure
4. Issues
INDUSTRY STRUCTURE OVERVIEW While there are a large number of growers, the supply chain narrows into 20 export packhouses and only 12 registered exporters
PAGE 23
Growers
1,481
Export Packhouses
20
Registered Exporters
12
Export Markets - Australia - Japan - USA - Others
Domestic Market
Firm/org
Avocado vol/ export share
Parent Firm(s)
Ownership
Total firm turnover
Location(s) packing avo
Fruit packed
Notes/comments
760k trays exp 34% exports
Cooperative (260+ shareholders)
$43.4m (09) BOP Northland
Kiwifruit Avocados
JV with Primor
22% total mkt Private - Trevelyan family ~$20m BOP Kiwifruit Avocados
Avos sold via Primor/Apata
John Carroll Edward Long; others
n/a - Range Sales & marketing org; imp/exp Based in Auckland
Seeka ? HP 100k
NZX (SEK) (former coop)
$108m (09) (x HP)
BOP Kiwifruit Avocados
Launched AvoFresh brand Built avocado oil extraction plant Dec 09 acquired HukaPak (K/A) HukaPak was 100k tray avo Also Peninsula & KiwiProduce
??? Cooperative $58m (09) BOP Kiwifruit Avocados
JV with Aongatete formed 06 Works with Team Avocado in NZ Exports with Intermax & Freshco
71k trays exp (aero only)
Public (grower-owned) (John Anderson 43%) (Birley family 28%)
$21.6m (09) BOP Kiwifruit Avocados
70 avo orchards supplying Recently installed new invision system and waterblaster
Moore family 100%
n/a (small)
BOP Kiwifruit Avocados
25 years in avocado industry
Jeeves family 50%+ Others
n/a (small)
Northland Avocados Recently installed new washer
Clark family 100% (James & Gillian)
n/a (small)
Northland Avocados 21 years in avocado industry
Coles family
n/a Auckland Avocados
Key firms involved in avocado packing (various; 2009/2010)
PACKERS - KEY FIRMS A handful of key firms pack New Zealand’s avocados
PAGE 24 Source: various company websites; various company annual reports; published articles; Coriolis analysis
In progress
Firm/org
Avocado volume & export share
Parent Firm(s)
Ownership
Total firm turnover
Location(s) packing avocados
Fruit packed
Notes/comments
Secondary
- Paul Jones ~25% Robert Greenlees ~25% Others
$25m BOP Kiwifruit Avocados
Owns 25% Birchwood DMS Progrower owned by growers and DMS Group (Jones/Greenlees)
Tot 77k trays 14k TE export
- DMS 25% Others
$5m BOP Kiwifruit Avocados
Small kiwifruit packer
Deltapac Deltapac Gregg family 100% n/a Gisborne Citrus Avocados Melons Squash Kiwifruit
Primarily Gisborne citrus
NZX listed GPG 65% Noboa 12% Others
$590m (09)
Northland Apples Citrus Avocados others
Acquired ENZA in 2000 Acquired Kerifresh in 2007 Formed Delicia in 2007
Tertiary
Natural Touch
Natural Touch Wells family 90% n/a Northland Listed on NZAGA
R&S Bailey - ? n/a ? Listed on NZAGA
Tandara
- ? n/a BOP Listed on NZAGA
Secondary/tertiary firms involved in avocado packing (various; 2009/2010)
PACKERS – SECONDARY/TERTIARY FIRMS There is also a group of smaller, secondary firms packing avocados
PAGE 25 Source: various company websites; various company annual reports; published articles; Coriolis analysis
In progress
Firm/org
Avocado export share
Ownership
Total firm turnover
Fruit Exported
Domestic/ Imported
Key brands
Notes/comments
John Carroll Edward Long; others
n/a Avocados Kiwifruit (AU) Blackcurrants
Avocados Citrus Grapes Vegetables Others
? Sales & marketing org; imp/exp Based in Auckland
NZX listed GPG 65% Noboa 12%
$590m (09)
Apples/pears Citrus Kiwifruit (AU) Avocados Blueberries Others
Bananas Tomatoes Vegetables Many others
ENZA Jazz / Envy Kerifresh Bonita (NZ) Sunfirst Others
Acquired ENZA in 2000 Acquired/formed Delicia in 2008 Owned 12% by Noboa/Bonita www.turnersandgrowers.com www.delica.co.nz/
John Mangan Greig Taylor
n/a Apples/pears Avocados Blueberries Kiwifruit (AU) Others
Grower pipfruit JV Freshco Nelson and Freshco Hawkes Bay
Wolseley PE (AU) David Smith Others
Apples Kiwifruit (AU) Citrus Vegetables Others
Originally domestic wholesale in NZ AU PE bought into business in 2007 Acquired Holman Fresh (AU) sales/mar Acquired Panda Ranch (AU) stonefruit
Key firms involved in avocado packing (various; 2009/2010)
EXPORTERS - KEY FIRMS A related, but somewhat different group controls exports…
PAGE 26 Source: various company websites; various company annual reports; published articles; Coriolis analysis
In progress
See previous page
See previous page
Firm/org
Avocado export share
Ownership
Total firm turnover
Fruit Exported
Domestic/ Imported
Key brands
Notes/comments
Jeffery & Peter Turner (ex T&G)
n/a Avocados Kiwifruit Berries Stonefruit Others
Avocados Greens Summerfruit Vegetables Others
Purefresh Org. Mr Jacks Hao Hao Go Fresh
Split of from FreshDirect (domestic supply) in 2006; same shareholding www.freshdirect.co.nz www.jpexports.co.nz
Ranji Chhita n/a Apples/pears Stonefruit Berries Others
Apples/pears Berries Vegetables Others
? Started as greengrocer in Pt. Chevalier
C&S AU 64% Allan Macdonald
NZ $6.9m AU n/a
Australian produce
Range C-lect Early Bird Others
NZ imp/exp arm of AU wholesaler 64% owned by C&S Australia (major AU Wholesaler)
Cooperative (numerous growers)
n/a Avocados Avocados Zavo Formed 2008 as grower coop Export to CalAvo (US) & Costa (AU)
Cooperative (numerous growers)
NZ$297m (09)
Wide range Wide range wholesaler
Dole (jv) various
Owns LaManna (Australia)
Key firms involved in avocado packing (various; 2009/2010)
EXPORTERS - KEY FIRMS … continued
PAGE 27 Source: various company websites; various company annual reports; published articles; Coriolis analysis
In progress
DOCUMENT STRUCTURE
1. NZ Situation
2. Market Structure
3. Industry Structure
4. Issues
KEY QUESTIONS
1. New Zealand yields per hectare are currently significantly lower than key competitors. How quickly can this be fixed?
2. New Zealand’s current on/off year swings in production are massive compared to competitors leading to huge swings in industry turnover and capacity/capital utilisation. Can this be fixed through better farm management? Why do other countries have much smoother year-on-year production?
3. Avocados are typically being packed in kiwifruit pack houses as they mature at a different point in the year and, hence, can use the same facility.
a) Will the industry likely end up controlled by the key kiwifruit packers? b) Chilean avocado packers pack a much wider range of fruit (due to climate/environment); does this make their fixed costs
lower?
4. Following from (3), if the key challenge for the industry going forward is selling to the rest of the world (other than Australia), isn’t the most sensible solution (politics aside) to leverage the existing Zespri global sales and marketing infrastructure?
- Alternatively, it can easily be argued that the existence of Zespri is retarding the growth of the NZ avocado industry (as Zespri eliminated the presence of a range of global kiwifruit exporters who could move avocados through their existing sales and marketing structure)
5. Are the high returns currently achieved in Australia purely an artifact of Australian protectionism, rather than the reward for
superior New Zealand quality? If so, (1) this will disappear if/when other countries gain access to Australia and (2) can New Zealand compete outside Australia? [Alternatively, can we use Australia as a nursery to get to scale?]
6. The typical model for successful New Zealand fruit exports (particularly kiwifruit and apples) is (1) achieving higher yields per hectare than competitors, (2) superior quality, (3) NZ-developed IP controlled varieties and (4) efficient post-harvest operations. It arguable whether the NZ avocado industry is currently delivering on any of these. PAGE 29
We propose the following preliminary key questions for the New Zealand avocado industry