Post on 21-Dec-2015
Introduction to climate change Introduction to climate change work in Bangladesh work in Bangladesh
A.K.M. Saiful IslamInstitute of Water and Flood Management (IWFM)Bangladesh University of Engineer and Technology (BUET)
Training workshop on Regional Climate Modeling using PRECISFebruary 14-18, 2010, Dhaka, Bangladesh
Outline
Introduction to Climate Change Study Cell at BUET
Climate Change Conditions of Bangladesh
Regional Climate Change Modeling using PRECIS for Bangladesh
Climate Change Study Cell at BUET
Climate Change Study Cell
IWFM has established a climate change study cell in 2008.
The vision of the Cell is to establish itself as the premier knowledge center on climate change risk and adaptation for Bangladesh.
Launching CeremonyOn March 08, 2009
Chief Guest was Minister of Disaster Management
Institution Frameworks
Syndicate
BOG
Director
Coordinator
Advisory committee
Liaison Committee
Research Teams
IWFM CCSC
Activities in 2008
Short courses
Two short courses on "Climate Change Training for Water Professionals”, were held on 17-19 November and 18-20 October of 2008 at DCE, BUET.
Short Course on "Climate Change Risks and Adaptation in Water Sector" held on 10-11 February, 2008 at DCE, BUET.
Activities in 2009
• M.Sc. Course in Climate Change Risk Management offered at IWFM
Course web site- http://teacher.buet.ac.bd/akmsaifulislam/climatecourse2009.html
• In future Certificate course will be offered for professionals
Activities in 2009
Total 20 participants will attend this workshop from various Gov. and Non-Gov. organizations. This workshop will be organized in collaboration with Met Office, UK and funded by DFID, UK.
Upcoming – Capacity Building Program
• In response to the call for project proposals for “Climate Change Trust Fund” from Ministry of Environment and Forestry (MoEF), CCSC has submitted a project proposal which include-
Fifteen Research Proposals on climate change
Computational Facility Development for Regional Climate Change Modeling
Student Fellowship International Conference Organizations Institutional Strengthen of the Cell
Visit our Website for more information http://teacher.buet.ac.bd/diriwfm/climate/
Changing Climate of Bangladesh
Temperature Data Analysis (1947-2007)
Mean daily temperature of Bangladesh has increased with a rate of 1.03 0C per 100 years
y = 0.0103x + 25.428
R2 = 0.2996
23
24
25
26
27
1948
1953
1958
1963
1968
1973
1978
1983
1988
1993
1998
2003
2008
(c)
Trends of Temperature of Bangladesh (1947-2007)
y = 0.0063x + 17.855
29.4
29.6
29.8
30
30.2
30.4
30.6
30.8
31
31.2
31.4
1948
1951
1954
1957
1960
1963
1966
1969
1972
1975
1978
1981
1984
1987
1990
1993
1996
1999
2002
2005
2008
Trends of Maximum Temperature
y = 0.0137x - 6.0268
20
20.2
20.4
20.6
20.8
21
21.2
21.4
21.6
21.8
22
1948
1951
1954
1957
1960
1963
1966
1969
1972
1975
1978
1981
1984
1987
1990
1993
1996
1999
2002
2005
2008
Trends of Minimum Temperature
Max. Temp. = 0.63 0C/100 year Min. Temp. = 1.37 0C/100 year
Meteorological Observational Stations in Bangladesh
ID Station Latitude Longitude Altitude Max. Temp. (0C per yr.)
Min. Temp. (0C per yr.)
11704 Barisal 22.72 90.37 2.1 m 0.0077 -0.0163
11706 Bhola 22.68 90.65 4.3 m 0.0170 0.0206
10408 Bogra 24.85 89.37 17.9 m 0.0117 0.0404
11316 Chandpur 23.23 90.7 4.9 m 0.0163 0.0161
11921 Chittagong 22.35 91.82 33.2 m 0.0224 0.009
41926 Chuadanga 23.65 88.82 11.6 m -0.0038 0.0217
11313 Comilla 23.43 91.18 9 m 0.0049 -0.0009
11927 Cox's Bazar 21.45 91.97 2.1 m 0.0295 0.022
11111 Dhaka 23.78 90.38 6.5 m 0.0119 0.0225
10120 Dinajpur 25.65 88.68 37.6 m -0.0213 0.0151
11505 Faridpur 23.93 89.85 8.1 m 0.0275 --
11805 Feni 23.03 91.42 6.4 m 0.0174 0.0331
11814 Hatiya 22.45 91.1 2.4 m 0.0261 -0.0202
10910 Ishardi 24.15 89.03 12.9 m 0.0032 0.0037
11407 Jessore 23.2 89.33 6 m 0.0147 0.0113
12110 Khepupara 21.98 90.23 1.8 m 0.0266 0.0037
11604 Khulna 22.78 89.53 2.1 m 0.0037 -0.0053
11925 Kutubdia 21.82 91.85 2.7 m 0.0416 0.0248
11513 Madaripur 23.17 90.18 7 m 0.0047 --
11809 Maijdicourt 22.87 91.1 4.9 m 0.0193 0.0204
41958 Mongla 22.47 89.6 1.8 m 0.0430 0.0104
10609 Mymensing 24.73 90.42 18 m -0.0086 0.0086
12103 Patuakhali 22.33 90.33 1.5 m 0.0328 0.026
10320 Rajshahi 24.37 88.7 19.5 m 0.0110 0.0027
12007 Rangamati 22.63 92.15 68.9 m -0.0039 -0.0178
10208 Rangpur 25.73 89.27 32.6 m -0.0259 0.0281
11916 Sandwip 22.48 91.43 2 m 0.0074 -0.0182
11610 Satkhira 22.72 89.08 4 m 0.0065 0.0107
41858 Sayedpur 25.75 88.92 39.6 m 0.0266 --
11912 Sitakunda 22.63 91.7 7.3 m 0.0581 -0.0212
10724 Srimangal 24.3 91.73 22 m 0.0030 0.0237
10705 Sylhet 24.9 91.88 33.5 m -- 0.0057
41909 Tangail 24.25 89.93 10.2 m 0.0174 -0.0234
11929 Teknaf 20.87 92.3 5 m 0.0242 0.0236
Trends of TemperatureFor 34 ground measuring Stations of BMD
Monthly temperature over Bangladesh (1948-2007)
10
15
20
25
30
35
Janu
ary
Febr
uary
Mar
ch
Apr
il
May
June
July
Aug
ust
Sep
tem
ber
Oct
ober
Nov
embe
r
Dec
embe
r
Tem
pera
ture
(0 C
)
minimum
maximum
Month-wise Trends
Month Max. Temp.(0C per yr.)
Min. Temp.(0C per yr.)
January -0.0142 0.0104
February 0.0000 0.0340
March -0.0117 0.0220
April -0.0142 0.0121
May 0.0010 0.0052
June 0.0139 0.0103
July 0.0116 0.0075
August 0.0183 0.0081
September 0.0070 0.0031
October 0.0178 0.0078
November 0.0270 0.0289
December 0.0147 0.0270
Change of mean Temperature(0C/year)
Average Temperature in January (1948-2007)
Daily Maximum Daily Minimum
Maximum TemperatureMaximum increase: 0.0581 at ShitakundaMinimum increase: -0.026 at Rangpur
Minimum TemperatureMaximum increase: 0.0404 at BograMinimum increase: -0.023 at Tangail
Spatial Distribution of Trends of Temperature (1947-2007)
Climate Change Impact for Bangladesh
Increase of intensity and duration of natural disasters such as floods, Cyclones and Storm Surges.
Increase of moisture stress (droughts) due to erratic precipitation
Salinity intrusion due to Sea Level Rise Inundation due to sea level rise leading towards
“Climate Refugees” Effect on health and livelihood of coastal
people. Effect on Bio-diversity, Ecology & Sundarbans. Hampered Food Security & Social Security.
The Sundarbans ..Mangrove forest?
Facing Climate Change
• National Awareness building– Capacity Building through Training – Innovative Research for knowledge generations
• Mitigation – Reduce Co2 emission, Use Green technology– Use of Alternative Energy sources – Solar, Wind etc.
• Adaptation – – Build Shelters, Rise Embankments & Polders, Roads,
Houses– Salinity tolerant crops, Forestation, alternative livelihood,
improve warning system, migrations
• Global Awareness & Justice– – Kyoto Protocol, COP15, COP16…. Raise our voice !
Regional Climate Change Modeling for Bangladesh
Regional Climate change modeling in Bangladesh
• PRECIS regional climate modeling is now running in Climate change study cell at IWFM,BUET.
• Uses LBC data from GCM (e.g. HadCM3).
• LBC data available for baseline, A2, B2, A1B scenarios up to 2100.
• Predictions for every hour. Needs more than 100 GB free space.
Domain used in PRECIS experiment
Topography of Experiment Domain
Zoom over BangladeshSimulation Domain = 88 x 88 Resolution = 0.44 degree
Predicted Change of Mean Temperature (0C) using A1B
2050 2090
Baseline = 2000
Predicting Maximum Temperature using A2 Scenarios
[Output of PRECIS model using SRES A2 scenario]
[Output of PRECIS model using SRES A2 scenario]
Predicting Minimum Temperature using A2 Scenarios
Change of Mean Rainfall (mm/d) using A1B Scenarios
2050 2090
Baseline = 2000
Predicting Rainfall using A2 Scenarios
[Output of PRECIS model using SRES A2 scenario]
Change of mean climatic variables of Bangladesh using A1B
Scenarios
Temperate (0C)Rainfall (mm/d)
Monthly Average Rainfall (mm/d)
Month 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090
January 2.61 0.34 0.03 0.03 0.42 0.99 1.24 0.21 0.12 1.66 1.02
February 0.61 0.55 1.38 1.01 1.24 1.88 0.45 1.10 0.53 1.61 0.76
March 2.42 1.02 4.82 3.04 1.87 3.07 0.99 3.62 2.84 1.27 3.59
April 5.84 1.38 11.46 5.99 2.82 7.84 11.41 6.60 8.39 8.74 3.66
May10.0
3 5.59 10.36 6.42 11.92 18.16 33.47 16.53 29.47 11.29 11.96
June17.0
6 7.90 14.79 13.59 10.84 21.48 12.87 12.93 7.24 10.04 11.70
July 7.20 9.07 7.97 8.13 7.32 11.26 5.62 10.26 10.31 6.33 9.98
August 7.39 5.46 5.11 3.92 9.79 6.67 7.46 13.60 10.65 9.13 9.59
September 4.49 6.71 5.47 7.83 7.51 8.82 10.29 10.80 10.52 8.18 7.48
October 5.68 1.48 4.16 2.76 6.16 3.11 1.89 3.94 2.55 8.84 7.58
November 0.14 0.16 0.41 0.91 0.03 0.73 0.08 1.91 0.27 1.23 0.51
December 0.14 0.06 0.10 0.26 0.06 0.18 1.09 0.04 0.13 0.32 0.03
Monthly Average Temperature (0C)
Month 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090
January14.7
4 15.08 14.63 15.94 15.66 17.66 19.52 16.49 17.68 21.55 20.88
February14.2
7 21.18 20.18 22.36 20.61 20.65 23.14 25.37 24.50 23.00 23.32
March24.2
5 26.34 25.68 25.66 28.82 26.70 29.23 29.04 29.71 28.53 28.84
April27.9
5 32.36 29.10 31.28 34.07 31.96 31.29 32.64 32.81 31.53 34.52
May29.5
1 32.11 32.16 33.17 31.97 32.37 29.31 32.00 32.59 33.88 35.62
June29.1
8 31.42 30.66 31.44 30.82 31.56 31.94 31.18 37.24 34.80 35.07
July28.5
9 28.23 28.88 28.99 29.35 30.28 30.58 30.45 31.03 31.76 30.44
August28.1
9 28.24 29.06 29.65 28.62 30.34 30.26 29.31 30.12 29.93 30.09
September28.0
2 27.29 28.65 28.11 28.58 30.72 29.07 29.79 30.72 29.01 29.87
October25.2
4 25.21 27.10 27.29 26.14 28.48 28.22 29.25 29.72 27.82 29.09
November19.4
4 20.20 21.03 20.52 21.06 23.21 22.64 22.04 23.76 25.52 26.30
December14.4
8 17.37 17.86 18.53 16.24 18.85 19.99 18.26 19.36 20.90 20.80
Summary
Analysis of the historic data (1948-2007) shows that daily maximum and minimum temperature has been increased with a rate of 0.63 0C and 1.37 0C per 100 years respectively.
PRECIS simulation for Bangladesh using A1B climate change scenarios showed that mean temperature will be increased at a constant rate 40C per 100 year from the base line year 2000.
On the other hand, mean rainfall will be increased by 4mm/d in 2050 and then decreased by 2.5mm/d in 2100 from base line year 2000.
Recommendations
• In future, Climate change predictions will be generated in more finer spatial scale(~25km).
• PRECIS model will be simulated with other Boundary condition data such as ECHAM5 using A1B scenarios.
• Results will be compared with other regional climate models such as RegCM3 etc.