Post on 23-Apr-2022
Project FD2119 Estuaries Research Programme Phase 2 Final dissemination March 2008
Alun Williams and Richard Whitehouse
Project FD2119 Estuaries Research Programme Phase 2 Final dissemination March 2008
Introducing the Estuary Guide and Introducing the Estuary Guide and Improving ConfidenceImproving Confidence
Project FD2119 Estuaries Research Programme Phase 2 Final dissemination March 2008
Overview
• What is the Estuary Guide?
• What information is available?
• Improving Confidence
Project FD2119 Estuaries Research Programme Phase 2 Final dissemination March 2008
Main aims of the Estuary Guide
• Provide a electronic platform– Best practice guidance– Knowledge repository– http://www.estuary-guide.net/
• Collate and electronically capture both ERP1 and ERP2 outputs
• Offer a framework containing synthesis of estuaries research to date
Project FD2119 Estuaries Research Programme Phase 2 Final dissemination March 2008
Snapshot of the Guide
Project FD2119 Estuaries Research Programme Phase 2 Final dissemination March 2008
The Guide is…
• An interactive document supported by a series of searchable tools;
• An overview of best practice in the field; • Based on a collation of industry
experience and ongoing research; • A vehicle for collation and dissemination of
the current outputs of the Estuaries Research Programme (funded by Defraand the Environment Agency since 1998) and other ongoing R&D.
Project FD2119 Estuaries Research Programme Phase 2 Final dissemination March 2008
The Guide is not…
• A prescriptive set of government advice, rather a summary of best practice;
• A complete and comprehensive guide to estuaries recognising all user perspectives.
Project FD2119 Estuaries Research Programme Phase 2 Final dissemination March 2008
Sources of knowledge
• Estuaries Research Programme:– ERP 1 e.g. FD1401(EMPHASYS)– FD2002(Futurecoast)– ERP 2 e.g. FD2116, FD2117 (EstSim)
• Other:– Estuaries research– General scientific research– Coastal research
Project FD2119 Estuaries Research Programme Phase 2 Final dissemination March 2008
Levels of information in the Guide
• Generic Estuary Guide chapters• Analysis and modelling guide• Supporting documents• Estuaries research• Links• Google search results
Project FD2119 Estuaries Research Programme Phase 2 Final dissemination March 2008
Estuaries Research (Programme)
Levels of information
Generic Estuary Guide
Analysis & Modelling Guide
•Data analysis methods•Hybrid methods•Process based “bottom -up”methods •Regime & equilibrium “ top-down” methods•Related modelling & analysis topics
Methods
•Accommodation space•Analytical solutions•Expert geomorphological analysis•Historical trends analysis•Holocene analysis•Saltmarsh analysis……
Project FD2119 Estuaries Research Programme Phase 2 Final dissemination March 2008
Generic Estuary Guide chapters
• Chapter 1 Introduction • Chapter 2 Estuary management • Chapter 3 Estuary setting • Chapter 4 Study approach
– Issues of scale– Summary of study process– Conceptual model– Synthesis & understanding
• Chapter 5 Study methods• Chapter 6 Presentation of findings • Chapter 7 Assessing impact
Project FD2119 Estuaries Research Programme Phase 2 Final dissemination March 2008
Example of a chapterPrinter ready formatted
PDF version
Short non-technicalsummary
Interactive image navigation
Project FD2119 Estuaries Research Programme Phase 2 Final dissemination March 2008
Analysis and modelling guide
• Data analysis methods • Regime and equilibrium “Top-Down”
methods • Process based “Bottom-Up” methods • Hybrid techniques that combine “Top-
Down” and “Bottom-Up” methods • Related modelling and analysis topics
Project FD2119 Estuaries Research Programme Phase 2 Final dissemination March 2008
Example of methods list
Project FD2119 Estuaries Research Programme Phase 2 Final dissemination March 2008
Example of a methodPrinter ready formatted
PDF version with complete text
FD2116 influenced summary table layout
Project FD2119 Estuaries Research Programme Phase 2 Final dissemination March 2008
Supporting documents
• Background papers on management framework
• Background papers on theoretical concepts • Select Government guidance• Guidance on impact assessment• Guidance on habitat creation and restoration • Worked examples and case studies• Guidance on modelling and analysis
– EMPHASYS guide and report– EstProc reports– Good modelling practice handbook
Project FD2119 Estuaries Research Programme Phase 2 Final dissemination March 2008
Estuaries research
• ERP Phase 1 dissemination• ERP Phase 2 dissemination• Estuaries database• Estuaries research projects
– Timeline of completed and ongoing projects
– Key documents and websites available– Key outputs available (HMI (SHELL),
ASMITA, EstSim…)
Project FD2119 Estuaries Research Programme Phase 2 Final dissemination March 2008
Links
• ERP research project websites• Other useful links• Useful process modelling software links• Other research project websites
– FRAME – FloodRiskNet– Saltmarsh Management Manual
Project FD2119 Estuaries Research Programme Phase 2 Final dissemination March 2008
• The Conceptual Model
• Uncertainty
• Confidence
Improving Confidence
Project FD2119 Estuaries Research Programme Phase 2 Final dissemination March 2008
Conceptual model of the estuary• Based on available information
• The model:– must be coherent and testable (hypothesis)– must be self-consistent– must contain the components of the sediment
budget and how those components interact– should utilise all available data and appropriate
analysis or predictive tools– where differences between data
sources/predictions arise, present data to demonstrate the uncertainty
• A necessary and time consuming process
Project FD2119 Estuaries Research Programme Phase 2 Final dissemination March 2008
Predictive methods• Data analysis of processes and morphology
– projections based on analysis• Top Down
– semi-empirical/analysis based morphological model• Bottom Up
– both: process based computational model– and: morphological model
• Hybrid– Semi-empirical/computational model
• Analysis and Modelling Guide
http://www.estuary-guide.net/guide/analysis_and_modelling/index.asp
Project FD2119 Estuaries Research Programme Phase 2 Final dissemination March 2008
Summary: Methods and Models and System Abstraction
Project FD2119 Estuaries Research Programme Phase 2 Final dissemination March 2008
Expressing uncertainty• Qualitative and Quantitative (Sayers et al., 2003):
– Deliberate vagueness, ‘There is a high chance of breaching’;
– Ranking without quantifying, ‘Option A is safer than Option B’;
– Stating possible outcomes without stating likelihoods, ‘It is possible the embankment will breach’;
– Probabilities of events or outcomes, ‘There is a 10% chance of breaching’;
– Range of variables and parameters, ‘The design flow rate is 100 cumecs +/-10 %’
– Confidence intervals, ‘There is a 95% chance that the design flow rate lies between 90 and 110 cumecs’;
– Probability distributions, “precise” probabilities based on multiple realisations.
last two widely used at present
http://www.estuary-guide.net/guide/chapter5_study_methods.asp#errors
Project FD2119 Estuaries Research Programme Phase 2 Final dissemination March 2008
Improving confidence - Data
• Right type of data– right scale and resolution
• Adequate quality of data– subject to quality assurance
• Record steps– source – method – processing
• Errors in techniques– time, space, magnitude
Project FD2119 Estuaries Research Programme Phase 2 Final dissemination March 2008
• quality (and quantity) of data
• a robust conceptual model
• Improved confidence in the results
Finally