Post on 16-Jul-2015
Brian Sowerby, TTA Workshop, 2012
Sustainable Energy: An Unbiased Review of Options
Session 1: Motivations for Change
Brian Sowerby Former Chief Research Scientist
CSIRO Minerals
Brian Sowerby, TTA Workshop, 2012
Course Purpose The course is aimed at equipping high school science,
technology and geography teachers to tackle the complex issues of sustainable energy and climate change.
The course aims to provide a balanced overview of the various options required to provide energy in the future while minimising environmental damage.
The focus of the course will be on providing technical details on the various technologies and on conducting a realistic evaluation of these technologies.
Brian Sowerby, TTA Workshop, 2012
Course StructureSession 1: Motivations for Change. Why change our energy production and use?
Session 2: Energy Consumption. Review our energy consumption now and in the future.
Session 3: Renewable Technologies. Could we meet our energy demands using renewables such as wind, solar
(photovoltaic, thermal, biomass), hydroelectric, geothermal, wave and tide?
Session 4: Coal, Gas and Nuclear. Can fossil fuels sustainably meet our energy demands and are low emission
technologies feasible? What about nuclear energy?
Session 5: Future Energy Plans Energy plans that add up
Session 6: Resources for Teachers
Brian Sowerby, TTA Workshop, 2012
Key References
Primary sources of unbiased information, graphs, charts, etc David MacKay, “Sustainable Energy – Without the Hot
Air” ATSE (Australian Academy of Technological Sciences
and Engineering) publications, seminars, etc IEA (International Energy Agency) publications
All above are available free on line
Brian Sowerby, TTA Workshop, 2012
Session 1: Outline
Global energy situation Motivations for Change
Energy resourcesEnergy securityEnvironmental impact
Climate Change Carbon in the environment
Brian Sowerby, TTA Workshop, 2012
Global SituationPopulation Growth
7 billion in 2011 rising to 9 billion by 2050. all aspiring to improved quality of life.
Market Economy economic growth has delivered untold wealth & power -
to some! but under current rules, it may damage the planet.
Poverty & Inequality 15% of world population enjoy 80% of world GDP. 43% live on less than $2 per day. inequality in the developed world is increasing.
Brian Sowerby, TTA Workshop, 2012
Global Energy Usage
Source: Wikipedia
Brian Sowerby, TTA Workshop, 2012
Primary Energy Consumption by Sector in Australia, 2005-6 (Garnaut, 2008)
Note: Aluminium smelting uses about 15% of electricity production in Australia. Aluminium mainly for export.
Brian Sowerby, TTA Workshop, 2012
Brian Sowerby, TTA Workshop, 2011
Source: MacKay, D. 2009
Brian Sowerby, TTA Workshop, 2012
Scale of the Problem
A Few Statistics Current oil consumption ~ 1000 barrels/second China is building ~ Two 500 MW power plants/week Renewables (solar, wind, biomass,…) account for less
than 1% of the world energy supply. Australia emits about 560 million tonnes of CO2 per
year. Global emissions about 45,000 million tonnes. Every person in Australia emits, on average, about
26 t CO2 /person/year.
Brian Sowerby, TTA Workshop, 2012
Energy – Three Motivations for Change1) Fossil Fuels are a Finite Resource
Possible that cheap oil and cheap gas will run out in our lifetime
Fossil fuels are a valuable resource for manufacture of plastics, etc
2) Security of Energy Supply Availability and prices of supplies Political stability of suppliers Competition from growing economies
1) Environmental Impact of Energy Usage Global climate change (CO2, CH4,…) Urban/Region pollution (NOx, SOx, Particulates,…) Water supply
Brian Sowerby, TTA Workshop, 2012
Reason to Change 1: Declining Oil Discoveries
Source: http://www.energybulletin.net/node/41311
Brian Sowerby, TTA Workshop, 2012
World Oil Reserves
Brian Sowerby, TTA Workshop, 2012
World Oil ProductionPeak oil is the point in time when demand exceeds supply. International Energy Agency (IEA) estimates a 2030 peak.
Source: IEA http://www.worldenergyoutlook.org/docs/weo2010/key_graphs.pdf
Fossil Fuel Reserve-to-Production Ratios Global reserve-to-production ratios (RPR) for each
resource is an indicator of the time remaining before each resource is completely exhausted.
Fuel Unit Reserves Annual Usage (2005)
RPR (years)
Oil Trillions barrels
1.2-2 0.03 40-70
Coal Billions tons
998 6 164
Natural Gas
Quads 6370 108 59
Source: http://www.eia.gov/forecasts/ieo/pdf/0484(2011).pdf
Brian Sowerby, TTA Workshop, 2012
Australian Situation Australia is currently doing
well out of energy, consuming about one-third of what it produces and exporting the balance (mainly in form of coal)
By 2030, Australia could be importing 100 per cent of its oil as its known domestic reserves run out
ECOS magazine Issue 139 explores Australia’s energy resource options http://
www.treasurer.gov.au/DisplayDocs.aspx?pageID=&doc=speeches/2006/001.htm&min=phc
Reason to Change 2: Energy Security Threats to energy security include
political instability of some energy producing countries,
manipulation of energy supplies, competition over energy sources and attacks on supply infrastructure.
Energy independence important because of the limited supplies, uneven distribution, and rising costs of fossil fuels.
Example: As a direct result of the 1973 oil crisis, France initiated a nuclear power program aimed at generating all of France's electricity from nuclear power.
Reason for Change 3: Climate Change Caused in Part by Increasing CO2 Sea level rise Global temperature rise Warming oceans Shrinking ice sheets Declining Arctic sea ice Glacial retreat Extreme events Ocean acidification
Brian Sowerby, TTA Workshop, 2012
Debate Wide range of views regarding a
possible future energy crisis, e.g. Goodstein “Out of Gas” predicts an oil
crisis when production can’t meet demand – perhaps as soon as 2020 or 2025.
Lomborg “The Skeptical Environmentalist” (2001) - no energy crisis – recently changed view – “Smart Solutions to Climate Change” (2010)
Lovelock “The Revenge of Gaia” - too late to establish sustainable development.
Brian Sowerby, TTA Workshop, 2012
Climate ModelsClimate models use quantitative methods to simulate the interactions of the atmosphere, oceans, land & ice.All climate models take account of incoming energy (chiefly visible and short-wave (near) infrared, as well as outgoing energy as long wave (far) infrared radiation from the earth. They all predict global warming due to anthropogenic increases in CO2
Source: http://www.epa.gov/climatechange/science/futuretc.html
Brian Sowerby, TTA Workshop, 2012
CO2 Concentrations in the Atmosphere
Source: MacKay, D. 2009
CO2 Concentrations
http://climate.nasa.gov/evidence/
Evidence for Rapid Climate Change
Global temperature rise Sea level rise Reduced snow cover Declining Arctic sea ice Glacial retreat Warming oceans Extreme events Ocean acidification
Brian Sowerby, TTA Workshop, 2011
Source:http://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar4/syr/ar4_syr_spm.pdf
Ocean Temperatures The best measure of global warming is ocean heat
content as it absorbs nearly 90 per cent of additional heat trapped by greenhouse gases.
Ocean heat content:Thick blue line
Ocean surface temperature: Thick aqua line
Domingues, C.M., Church, J.A., White, N.J., Gleckler, P.J., Wijffels, S.E., Barker, P.M. and Dunn, J.R. (2008). Improved estimates of upper-ocean warming and multi-decadal sea-level rise. Nature 453, doi:10.1038, pp. 1090–1094.
Brian Sowerby, TTA Workshop, 2012
Observed and modeled Arctic sea-ice extent (Source: IPCC)
Brian Sowerby, TTA Workshop, 2011
Source: MacKay, D. 2009
Brian Sowerby, TTA Workshop, 2012
Climate Changes in the Past
Ice ages have occurred in ~100,000 year cycle for the past 700,000 years
Changes in the orbital cycles of the earth (shape of orbit, tilt of earth, wobble) may be a major cause of these ice ages.
Brian Sowerby, TTA Workshop, 2011
Ice Core Data (Pettit et al, 1999)
Brian Sowerby, TTA Workshop, 2012
Climate Change: Oceans
One major cause of regional climate variation is ocean currents
Oceans huge heat capacity (~1000 x atmosphere)
Oceans contain ~60 x carbon in atmosphere and ~20 x terrestial carbon
pH of ocean gradually increasing (by 0.1 since 1750)
Sea level variations by ~120 m in ice ages. Since 1870 sea levels have risen ~200 mm
Brian Sowerby, TTA Workshop, 2012
Carbon: Where is it?
Note: 1 tonne CO2 contains 0.27 tonnes of C
Source: MacKay, D. 2009
Brian Sowerby, TTA Workshop, 2012
Carbon: Where is it going?Equilibration between CO2 in atmosphere and ocean surface is rapid (~25 years to absorb half added pulse from atmosphere)
However oceans circulate slowly ~1000 years for deep ocean water
Note carbon-14 from bomb tests in60s and 70s has penetrated to depth of only ~400m
Source: MacKay, D. 2009
References: Climate Change Australian Academy of Science (2010), ‘The Science of Climate
Change: Questions and Answers’; http://www.science.org.au/policy/climatechange.html
Australian Academy of Technological Sciences and Engineering (ATSE), 32nd Annual Symposium, ‘Rising to the Challenge of Climate Change’, Nov 2009. http://www.atse.org.au/resource-centre/func-startdown/107/
The Copenhagen Diagnosis: Climate Science Report, http://www.copenhagendiagnosis.org/
Royal Society (2010), ‘Climate Change: A Summary of the Science’, http://royalsociety.org/policy/publications/2010/climate-change-summary-science/
‘Seven Answers to Climate Contrarian Nonsense’ by John Rennie
http://www.scientificamerican.com/article.cfm?id=seven-answers-to-climate-contrarian-nonsense&SID=mail&sc=emailfriend
Brian Sowerby, TTA Workshop, 2012
Some Climate Change Resources for Teachers Australian Institute of Physics, Victoria Branch Education Committee,
Teacher Action on Climate Change, http://www.vicphysics.org/index.php?id=145
CSIRO Carbonkids (Educational Service), http://www.csiro.au/resources/CarbonKids-program.html
CSIRO CarbonKids: Unit of Work ‘Understanding Climate Change’, http://www.csiro.au/files/files/pqnj.pdf
CSIRO Teacher Resources Overview, http://www.csiro.au/org/ps2m.html
American Association for the Advancement of Science, Global Climate Change Resources http://www.aaas.org/news/press_room/climate_change/
‘Seven Answers to Climate Contrarian Nonsense’ by John Rennie http://www.scientificamerican.com/article.cfm?id=seven-answers-to-climate-contrarian-nonsense&SID=mail&sc=emailfriend
Brian Sowerby, TTA Workshop, 2012
Australian Institute of Physics, Victoria Branch, Teacher Action on Climate Change, http://www.vicphysics.org/index.php?id=145
A series of papers and presentations on climate change:
Discussion paper on Climate ChangeWhat's wrong with climate deniersClimate Science - How do we decideCountering Climate Confusion The Physics of the ClimateAn Introduction to the Science of the ClimateScience Teachers for Climate AwarenessThe Science of Climate ChangeCould Climate Sceptics be Right?
Brian Sowerby, TTA Workshop, 2012
CSIRO Teacher Resources Overview, http://www.csiro.au/org/ps2m.html CarbonKids is an innovative educational program for
primary and middle schooling years that combines the latest in environmental science with education in sustainability. It provides a range of resources for both primary and secondary school communities to better understand climate change and encourage sustainability.
http://www.csiro.au/resources/CarbonKids-program.html Document ‘Understanding Climate Change’, http://
www.csiro.au/files/files/pqnj.pdf
Brian Sowerby, TTA Workshop, 2011
Australia Institute, 2009. Nine modules on Teaching Climate Change compiled by staff at The Australia Institute in conjunction with high school teachers and university academics who work in the field of climate change. http://www.teachingclimatechange.com.au/
Module 1 The science of climate change Module 2 The impacts of climate change Module 3 Australia’s emissions Module 4 International negotiations Module 5 The ethics of climate change Module 6 The economics of climate change Module 7 Forms of energy generation Module 8 Solutions to reduce Australia’s emissions Module 9 Nuclear energy
Brian Sowerby, TTA Workshop, 2011
Session 1: Summary
Three strong motivations to change from our high dependence on fossil fuels as our energy source
Fossil Fuels are a Finite Resource
Environmental Impact of Energy Usage Current global warming substantially arises from greenhouse
gas emissions from the burning of fossil fuels
Security of Energy Supply
Brian Sowerby, TTA Workshop, 2012
Question for Discussion Of the three motivations to change (finite
resources, climate change, energy security) which do you think is the most important and whyFor individuals?For Australia?For the World?
Discuss in groups