Post on 03-Jan-2016
Information Resources Management CollegeNational Defense University
Cyber Terrorism:
The Real Story
Irving Lachow, Robert Miller & Courtney Richardson
May 10, 2007
“A global learning community for government’s most promising information leaders.”
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Outline
Introduction Why is this issue important?
What is Cyber Terrorism? Terrorist Use of the Internet US Response Options Recommendations
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U.S. is Losing Cyber War Against Terrorists
Terrorist use of Internet is leading to: A global ideological movement based on a set of guiding
principles and beliefs Effective operational structures that support local action without
centralized control Effective perception management campaigns that influence target
audiences while undermining U.S. interests
Secretary of Defense Rumsfeld: “If I were rating, I would say we probably deserve a D or D+ as a
country as how well we’re doing in the battle of ideas that’s taking place.”
Dr. Bruce Hoffman: “…the U.S. is dangerously behind the curve in countering terrorist
use of the Internet…”
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Outline
Introduction What is Cyber Terrorism?
Definition Cyber Terror vs. Other Cyber Activities
Terrorist Use of the Internet US Response Options Recommendations
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What is Cyber Terrorism?
Definitions of terrorism: State Dept: “Premeditated, politically motivated violence perpetrated
against noncombatant targets by subnational groups or clandestine agents, usually intended to influence an audience.”
FBI: “The unlawful use of force or violence against persons or property to intimidate or coerce a government, the civilian population, or any segment thereof, in furtherance of political or social objectives.”
Definition of cyber terrorism: Denning: “A computer based attack or threat of attack intended to
intimidate or coerce governments or societies in pursuit of goals that are political, religious, or ideological. The attack should be sufficiently destructive or disruptive to generate fear comparable to that from physical acts of terrorism. Attacks that lead to death or bodily injury, extended power outages, plane crashes, water contamination, or major economic losses would be examples... Attacks that disrupt nonessential services or that are mainly a costly nuisance would not.”
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Cyber Terrorism vs. Other Computer Attacks
MOTIVATION TARGET METHOD
Cyber Terror Political change Innocent victims Computer-based violence or destruction
Cracking Ego,
personal enmity
Individuals, companies, gov’ts
CNA, CNE
(sometimes overt)
Cyber Crime Economic gain Individuals, companies
Fraud, ID theft, blackmail, CNA, CNE
Cyber Espionage
Economic gain Individuals, companies, gov’ts
CNA, CNE
(rarely overt)
State-Level
Info War
Political or military gain
Infrastructure, military assets
CNA, CNE, physical attack
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Outline
Introduction Why is this issue important?
What is Cyber Terrorism? Terrorist Use of the Internet
Operational Effectiveness Influence Operations
US Response Options Recommendations
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Why Do Terrorists Use the Internet?
Rapid communications Low cost Ubiquity Ease of use + sophistication of tools Anonymity
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How do Terrorists Use the Internet?
Organizational effectiveness Recruiting Fundraising Training Command and control Intelligence gathering
Influence Operations Public affairs Civil affairs Psychology operations Computer network
operations
Very few documented cases of cyber terrorism.WHY?
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Cyber Terrorism vs. Other Attack Vectors
Cyber Terror Challenges: May not create sufficient
horror, fear, and “terror” Prospects for success and
potential outcomes are highly uncertain
Requires different skill set and potential reliance on outside experts
May require extensive intelligence gathering, training, and funding
Use of explosives is a proven strategy Highly effective at creating
terror and getting attention. Easy to do, requires little
training, and is based upon extensive knowledge base
WMD is another option Would create tremendous
sense of terror and panic Would dominate news for
weeks or months Would be huge source of
pride
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Outline
Introduction What is Cyber Terrorism? Terrorist Use of the Internet US Response Options
Infrastructure Content Cognition
Recommendations
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US IO Options: Physical Infrastructure
Target physical infrastructure to deny or disrupt access to Internet (and possibly other ICT)
Vast majority of infrastructure used by extremists is commercially-owned and/or operated Most extremist web sites hosted in US or Western Europe There is heavy use of companies like Yahoo! and Microsoft for
email and chat While ISPs are often local, communications backbone likely owned
by either the state or a major corporation
Options: Direct attack (kinetic or other) Ask or force service providers to identify extremists and/or
terminate services to known extremists
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Physical Infrastructure: Pro’s and Con’s
Advantages Potential to significantly
disrupt extremist use of Internet or other ICT
May be limited options for extremists to counter this tactic
Disadvantages Political risks Legal impediments Technical challenges Collateral damage Identifying extremist users
is difficult May harm intel activities Results may be hard to
predict
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US IO Options: Information Content
Focus on data or information Target confidentiality, integrity and availability (CIA) in order to:
Deny ability of extremists to keep information secret Plant false or misleading information (either openly or
surreptitiously) Prevent extremists for having timely access to information
Options Intelligence gathering Spoofing (data) or Posing (people) Denial of service Other types of CNO
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Information Content: Pro’s and Con’s
Advantages Fewer political, legal and
technical impediments Easier to do in clandestine
manner May be able to guide actions
of extremists Can learn about extremist
goals, methods, personnel, etc.
Disadvantages Extremists can be hard to
find and/or identify Numerous countermeasures
readily available Technology and
demographic trends favor extremists
May be hard to assess success
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US IO Options: Cognition
Influence how people perceive information and/or make decisions
Focus on human aspect of perception (sense making) rather than data/information per se
Goal is to change extremists’ beliefs, decisions, and actions Options:
“War of Ideas” PSYOPS Public and civil affairs Soft power (economics, media, companies, etc.) Others…
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Cognition: Pro’s and Con’s
Advantages Reduce legitimacy of and
attractiveness of extremist movements
Create schisms among extremist groups
Gain support among allies and non-aligned parties
Few political, legal or technical barriers
Disadvantages Requires coordinated inter-
agency leadership, planning and execution
Currently lack needed personnel, expertise and resources
Long-term approach (possibly decades)
May be hard to assess success
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Outline
Introduction What is Cyber Terrorism? Terrorist Use of the Internet US Response Options Recommendations
Suggested Actions Final Observations Discussion of Metrics
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Recommendations
Develop high-level, coordinated strategy for countering terrorist use of the Internet Current efforts are disjointed and occur mostly at operational and
tactical levels Strategy must maximize benefits and minimize risks/costs of
each layer of info environment Where appropriate disrupt infrastructure if only to create FUD
about its reliability Attack CIA of extremist information to further increase FUD, gain
intel and disrupt operations Focus significant time and energy on cognitive domain to impact
terrorist decision-making, reduce terrorist influence on stakeholders, and promote US ideas
Create mix of short-, medium-, and long-term goals, plans, actions, and metrics
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A Few Final Observations
US alone cannot counter extremist Muslim ideology Must build up and/or support networks of moderate Muslims and
help spread their message Use former terrorists to undermine extremist recruiting
Current “approval ratings” of US across the world are dismal Improve publicity of “positive” actions Reset terms of the ideological struggle
US is not well organized to fight a long-term, broad-based “war of ideas” Elevate importance of information component of power Develop structures, processes, incentives to better coordinate IO-
type activities Strengthen capabilities of diplomatic corps and the “diplomatic”
abilities of soldiers
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Discussion
How can we measure the effectiveness of terrorist use of the Internet? # of users? # of websites? Interviews? Anecdotes? Polling data?
Membership in Islamic denominations?
How can we assess the benefits, costs, and risks of US response options? Benefits: Impacts on factors identified above? # of terrorist attacks?
# of stories in the media? Costs: Monetary? Level of effort? Opportunity costs? Risks: Public opinion? Media coverage? Legal actions? Changes in
terrorist use of Internet counter to US goals?
Key challenges include data availability, data accuracy, correlation vs. causality, and understanding of fundamental dynamics