Improving Achievement, Closing Gaps, and

Preventing Dropouts:

Where are we? What do we need to do?

Kilian Betlach, Policy & Practice AssociateThe Education Trust—West

Orange County Dropout Prevention SummitAnaheim, CA

February 19, 2009

2009 by The Education Trust-West

California is hobbled by twin

achievement gaps…

…first, between our state and the

rest of the nation

2007 NAEP Grade 4 Reading Average Overall Scale Scores by State

180

190

200

210

220

230

240

Ave

rage

Sca

le S

co

re California

Source: National Center for Education Statistics, NAEP Data Explorer, http://nces.ed.gov/nationsreportcard/nde/

Proficient Scale Score: 238

National Average

2007 NAEP Grade 4 Reading Average Latino Scale Scores by State

180

190

200

210

220

230

240

Ave

rag

e S

ca

le S

co

re

National Average

California

Source: National Center for Education Statistics, NAEP Data Explorer, http://nces.ed.gov/nationsreportcard/nde/

Proficient Scale Score: 238

2007 NAEP Grade 8 Math Average Overall Scale Scores by State

Source: National Center for Education Statistics, NAEP Data Explorer, http://nces.ed.gov/nationsreportcard/nde/

Proficient Scale Score: 299

California

National Average

2007 NAEP Grade 8 Math Average African American Scale Scores by State

Source: National Center for Education Statistics, NAEP Data Explorer, http://nces.ed.gov/nationsreportcard/nde/

Proficient Scale Score: 299

National Average

California

Let’s be clear.

It’s not our demographics.

2007 NAEP Grade 8 Math Average White Scale Scores by State

Source: National Center for Education Statistics, NAEP Data Explorer, http://nces.ed.gov/nationsreportcard/nde/

Proficient Scale Score: 299National Average

California

…second, between low-income

students and students of color and

their more advantaged peers

CALIFORNIA

8th grade ELA, CST 2008

By Ethnicity

Source: California Department of Education, 2008

Source: California Department of Education, 2008

CALIFORNIA

11th grade ELA, CST 2008

By Ethnicity

Source: California Department of Education data, 2008

Source: California Department of Education, 2008

CALIFORNIA

Algebra I (Grades 7-11), CST 2008

By Ethnicity

Source: California Department of Education data, 2008

Source: California Department of Education, 2008

CALIFORNIA

Algebra II (Grades 7-11), CST 2008

By Ethnicity

Source: California Department of Education data, 2008

Source: California Department of Education, 2008

By the end?

CALIFORNIA

Reported Graduation Rates, Class of 2007

Source: California Department of Education data, 2008

CALIFORNIA

More Accurate Graduation Rates, Class of 2007

Source: Education Trust-West Analysis of CDE data, using the Manhattan Institute methodology

What are they graduating with?

COLLEGE-READY GRADUATION RATES

9th graders graduating four years later with A-G mastery*

Class of 2007

Source: ETW’s Raising the Roof, 2008, Manhattan Institute Methodology

*Students who have completed the A-

G course sequence with a “C” or better

in each class.

COLLEGE READY GRADUATION RATES

CALIFORNIA

Class of 2004-Class of 2007

23% 25% 24% 24%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

2004 2005 2006 2007

All Students

Source: ETW analysis of CDE data, using Manhattan Institute MethodologySource: ETW’s Raising the Roof, 2008, Manhattan Institute Methodology

COLLEGE READY GRADUATION RATES

CALIFORNIA, By Ethnicity

Class of 2004- Class of 2007

23% 24%

15% 15%

12% 13%

32% 34%

50%55%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

2004 2005 2006 2007

All

African AmericanLatino

White

Asian

Source: ETW analysis of CDE data, using Manhattan Institute MethodologySource: ETW’s Raising the Roof, 2008, Manhattan Institute Methodology

CALIFORNIA

4-Year High School Dropout Rate, By Ethnicity

Class of 2007

Source: California Department of Education data, 2008

CALIFORNIA

Grade 12 Dropouts

Class of 2004—Class of 2007

Source: ETW analysis of CDE data, using Manhattan Institute MethodologySource: California Department of Education, 2008

Of Every 100 9th Graders in California:

20 Enroll in

community college

13 Enroll in a 4-year

state university

Class of 2007

Source: California Educational Opportunity Reports: African American and Latino, 2007. UCLA IDEA and UC ACCORD

Of Every 100 African American 9th Graders in

California:

18 Enroll in

community college

9 Enroll in a 4-year

state university

Class of 2007

Source: California Educational Opportunity Reports: African American and Latino, 2007. UCLA IDEA and UC ACCORD

Of Every 100 Latino 9th Graders in California:

17 Enroll in

community college

7 Enroll in a 4-year

state university

Class of 2007

Source: California Educational Opportunity Reports: African American and Latino, 2007. UCLA IDEA and UC ACCORD

It doesn’t have to be this way

Two things we could do right now to better

understand this issue, raise achievement, and

prevent dropouts

1) Prioritize accurate information

Build a comprehensive, longitudinal data

system with unique student identifiers

∆ Bring CALPADS and CALTIDES fully

online

∆ Link to Higher Ed and social

service

∆ Utilize Federal Stimulus money

2) Raise academic rigor for all

students

Align high school graduation requirements

with the UC/ CSU A-G course sequence

Black & Latino Students: Fewer Enrolled in

Necessary A-G Courses by 12th Grade

Source: Finkelstein, N.D. and Fong, A.B. (2008). Course-taking patterns and preparation for postsecondary education in California’s public university system among minority youth. (Issues & Answers Report, REL 2008-No. 035). Washington, DC: US Department of Education, Institute of Education Sciences, National Center for Education Evaluation and Regional Assistance, Regional Educational Laboratory West. Retrieved fromhttp://ies.ed.gov/ncee/edlabs

Many Senior Schedules Lack Any Rigor

Student A Student B Student C

• Concert Band

• Library Practice

• Office Practice

• American

Government

• Marching Band

• Teacher Assistant

• Art Fundamentals

• Senior Math

• Teacher Assistant

• Short Story

• Office Practice

• Early Departure

• Early Departure

• Late Arrival

• Concert Band

• Marching Band

• Senior Math

• Office Practice

• Latin American

Literature

• Food Service

• Early Departure

Source: EdTrust—West Transcript Analysis of unnamed Southern California District

The success of San Jose Unified

dispels debilitating myths about

what kids—and adults—can achieve

San José Unified Demographics

• 51% Hispanic

• 28% White

• 13% Asian

• 4% African/American

• 4% 0ther

Hispanic

White

Asian

AfricanAmer

Other

√ 39% Low SES

√ 28% EL

• 87% Spanish Speaking

Source: EdTrust West analysis of California Department of Education data

46%52%

56%

70%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

1999 2004 2005 2006

SJUSD Seniors who take at least one AP course

Source: EdTrust West analysis of California Department of Education data

SJUSD Senior AP scores of 3 or higher

44%

57% 61%

78%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

1999 2004 2005 2006

748 tests 1197 tests 1254 tests 1277 tests

Source: EdTrust West analysis of California Department of Education data

SJUSD Graduation Rates

Source: Ed Trust West analysis of CA Dept of Ed data, 2007, using Manhattan Methodology

74% 74%69%71%72%77% 73% 73% 73%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006

SJUSD

Latino Graduates College-Ready

San Jose vs. California, 1994-2006

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006

California San Jose

Source: EdTrust West analysis of California Department of Education data

49%

5%

SJUSD

African American Graduates College-Ready

San Jose vs. California, 1994-2006

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006

California San Jose

Source: EdTrust West analysis of California Department of Education data

50%

11%

What about CTE?

A-G, CTE, and Room for Electives

Subject 9th 10th 11th 12th

English English 1 English 2 English 3 English 4

Math Algebra I Geometry Algebra II Prob / Stat

Science Physical

Science

Biology Chemistry Physics

Social Studies World History US History American Govt /

Economics

Foreign

Language

Spanish 1 Spanish 2

CTE Computer

Technology

Computer

Programming 1

Computer

Programming 2

Elective Academic Lit/

Multicultural Ed

Art 1

Elective PE Rest Culinary Arts

The divisions between “college-

ready” and “work-ready” are

increasingly irrelevant and

immaterial.

Ready for Career is Ready for College

Tool and Die Makers

• Algebra

• Geometry

• Trigonometry

• Statistics

Sheet Metal Workers

• Algebra

• Geometry

• Trigonometry

• Technical Reading

Auto Technicians

• Physics

• Force

• Hydraulics

• Friction

• Electrical circuits

Even in Jobs We Don’t Expect…

Plumbing Heating-Air Conditioning

• Algebra

• Plane Geometry

• Trigonometry

• Statistics

• Physics

• Chemistry

• Biology

• Engineering

• Economics

And ALL require

strong fluency

and literacy skills

in English

Construction

and Engineering

• Algebra

• Plane Geometry

• Critical thinking

• Problem Solving

• Reading and Writing

Sources: Plumbing : Shapiro, D., and Nichols, J. Constructing Your Future: Consider a Career in Plumbing,

Heating, Ventilation, Air Conditioning (HVAC) PHCC Auxiliary 2005 downloaded March 13, 3006

http://www.phccweb.org/PDFs/PHCC20pg.pdf, Construction: California Apprenticeship Council Division of

Apprenticeship Standards 2001 Annual Legislative Report Downloaded March 15, 2006

http://www.dir.ca.gov/das/DASAnnualReport2001/LegRep2001.pdf#search='architecture%2C%20construction

%2C%20engineering%20%28ace%20pathway%29%20course%20outline'

For Our Country: Growing Need for Higher Levels

of Education

Projections of Education Shortages and Surpluses in 2012

BAAbove BA

-7,500,000 -6,000,000 -4,500,000 -3,000,000 -1,500,000 0 1,500,000 3,000,000

Less Than High

School

High School

Associates Degree

Some College

Shortage Surplus

Source: Analysis by Anthony Carnevale, 2006 of Current Population Survey (1992-

2004) and Census Population Projection Estimates

Bachelor’s Degree and Above

Ultimately,

good systems always and

aggressively tackle the myth that

“Closing the achievement gap is

unfair…and unachievable.”

May be unfair.

If ours were a just nation, we wouldn’t allow so many of our children to live in

such miserable circumstances.

But it is not un-achievable.

The Education Trust—West

Download this Presentation

www.edtrustwest.org

Oakland, CA

(510) 465-6444