Post on 01-Jan-2016
description
IFPRI Water Policy
ResearchIrrigation Component
Claudia Ringler, Ruth Meinzen-Dick, Andrew Bell, Tingju Zhu, Hua Xie, and Ephraim
Nkonya
IFPRI irrigation work program
Completed
• Large- and small-scale irrigation potential across Africa
• Water management adaptations to CC in SSEA
Ongoing • Smallholder irrigation potential in SSA & SA • Assessing options for water-conserving
irrigation in China, India and Vietnam• Assessing role of irrigation in agricultural
productivity• Global modeling of irrigation using IMPACT• Environmental Management Options and
Delivery Mechanisms to Reduce Malaria Transmission in Uganda
Starting up/
Planned
• Experimental games to understand collective action and conjunctive use
• Determinants of adoption for advanced irrigation technologies
• Nutrition & health benefits of smallholder irrigation
• Institutions for water quality management
Combined biophysical and socioeconomic assessment of
i) dam-based irrigation potential, and
ii) (residual) small-scale irrigation potential
Input from hydrologic model, but no hydrologic modeling
Potential additional work:
Large- vs. small-scale irrigation under climate change You, L, C. Ringler, U. Wood-Sichra, R. Robertson, S. Wood, T. Zhu, G. Nelson, Z. Guo, and Y. Sun. 2011.
What is the Irrigation Potential for Africa? A combined biophysical and socioeconomic approach. Food Policy 36(6): 770-782
Large- vs. small-scale irrigation, Africa
Completed Projects
Assessment of climate change impacts on irrigation water supply
Adaptations for Water Mgmt. in SSEA
Completed Projects
Ringler, C., N. Cenacchi, A. Cavalieri, W. Salas, D. Spielman, T. Zhu, H. Xie, Y. Sun. 2011. Analysis of Climate Change and Technology Policies in South and Southeast Asia. Submitted to USAID
Changes in irrigation supply reliability in 2050 for India, South Asia (excluding India),
and Southeast Asia
Methods:
i) Ex-ante spatial analysis to filter for areas above ‘threshold’ potential:Soils Topography RunoffMarket accessSurface water accessPopulation density
ii) Biophysical modeling using SWAT to estimate water availability, consumption, and crop yield under different scenarios of smallholder irrigation development
iii) Economic modeling using DREAM to estimate development impacts on crop prices
iv) Integration of i, ii, and iii results to determine optimal profitable irrigated crop mix, and the potential application areas of the various irrigation technologies
Investigating 8 technologies for smallholder irrigation:
Diesel pumps Treadle pumps Communal river diversionsSmall reservoirs Inland valley rice In-situ water harvesting Ex-situ water harvesting Rural electrification
Smallholder irrigation potential in SSA & SA
Ongoing Projects
Xie, H., L. You, B. Wielgosz and C. Ringler. What is the potential for smallholder agricultural water management in Sub-Saharan Africa? An integrated hydrologic-economic assessment. Agricultural Water
Management (under review)Xie, H., L. Longuevergne, C. Ringler, and B. Scanlon. Calibration and evaluation of the SWAT model using
GRACE data in modeling continental hydrology of Sub-Saharan Africa. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences (under review).
Potential application areas of:
20.5M ha (Diesel pumps)
17.3M ha (Treadle pumps)
1.2M ha (Communal river diversion)
0.3M* ha (Small reservoirs)
*3.2M ha if no capital costs
Smallholder irrigation potential in SSA
Ongoing Projects
Swaz
iland
Namibia
Leso
tho
Sout
h Afri
ca
Guine
a-Biss
au
Rwanda
Gabon
Sier
ra Leo
ne
Burkin
a Fa
so
Benin
Keny
a
Camer
oon
Suda
nCha
d
Angola
Tanz
ania
Ugand
a
Niger
ia0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
Potential application area (in 1000 ha) for motor pumps:
Potential additional work:
In-country validation of modeling toolM&E of agricultural productivity improvementsImpacts of climate variability on irrigation potential … and many other options
Smallholder irrigation potential in SSA
Ongoing Projects
Treadle pump pilots in Kenya, Tanzania
Ongoing Projects
Kickstart is one of several firms marketing small-scale, low-cost irrigation technologies across SSA.
This project evaluates Kickstart programs in Kenya and Tanzania.
Kickstart’s main products are human-powered treadle pumps irrigating areas of up to 2 acres.
Mainly targeting poor areas with limited access to diesel or technical support.Nkonya, E., L. Iannotti, B. Sakwa, B. Wielgosz, V. Gandhi, E. Kato, A. Peterman, and M. Jin. Baseline
study of Kickstart treadle pumps in East Africa (2011)
Treadle pump pilots in Kenya, Tanzania
Ongoing Projects
Key preliminary findings:
1. Very low ownership by women2. Main market for irrigated product in local villages3. All irrigation was for high-value (e.g., vegetable)
crops4. Pump owners are not the poorest – were also more
educated and more likely to have phones
Hip pump MMP SMMP Motorized pump
Hose pipe0%
25%
50%
75%
100%FemaleJoint
Water-Saving Irrigation in China/India & Vietnam
Ongoing Projects
Innovative Water-Saving Irrigation and Investment Priorities for Food Security and Water Sustainability in China, India and Vietnam
• Local Focus Group Discussions involving farmers and water managers
• Policy dialogues with national experts and policy makers
• Scenario design – irrigation investment and technology adoption
• Simulation modeling of water balance and irrigation water use under alternative investment and efficiency scenarios
Global irrigation modeling in IMPACT
Ongoing Projects
Sample topics:
• Role of water in the global bio-economy
• Irrigation and food security, alternative scenarios (mostly presentations)
Zhu, T. and C. Ringler. 2012. Climate Change Impacts on Water Availability and Use in the Limpopo River Basin. Water 4(1): 63-84. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/w4010063
Irrigation Supply Reliability in the Limpopo River Basin
Env’tal Mgmt. Options to Reduce Malaria Transmission in Uganda
Ongoing Projects
• Literature review of agriculture-environment-health linkages
• Geographically weighted regression analysis of Uganda National Household Survey for 2006 to determine localized agriculture-environment-health linkages
• Statistical analysis of longitudinal data for Uganda to establish intervention potential for extension, for example, through FFS for agriculture-health linkages
Assessing returns to irrigation, Tanzania
Projects starting up
Assessment of Tanzania’s Agricultural Sector Development Program (ASDP), with attention to:
• Quantifying investment returns to a cross-section of irrigation investments in the ASDP,
• Assessing sustainability of these returns and arrangements for cost recovery (via water user associations and fee collection, etc.),
• Identifying the key technical, financial, and institutional determinants of schemes with higher vs. lower investment returns, and
• Evaluating trade-offs of investing in i) strengthening existing schemes, ii) rehabilitating older schemes, and iii) developing new schemes
Irrigation and increased ag. productivity
Projects starting up
A) Agricultural household surveys (Bangladesh and Pakistan) for econometric assessment of:
i) Contribution of irrigation to crop yields/income/ nutritionii) Biophysical and socioeconomic determinants of participation in irrigation
B) SWAT hydrological model to extrapolate survey results to the entire country (Bangladesh and Pakistan)
Experimental Games for Strengthening Collective Action?
Projects starting up
Recent research has suggested that participation in experimental games has impact on behavior following the game
This project aims to evaluate impact of experimental games on collective action in an irrigation context, in India and Colombia
Partnership with Foundation for Ecological Security (India), Universidad de Los Andes (Colombia), and Arizona State University (USA)
Pending evidence of positive impact on collective action from games, this project will apply for funds to scale-up activities
Additional topics of interestProjects under planning
• Assessment of smallholder irrigation on community nutrition and health
• Energy use in irrigation versus mechanization and fertilizer—impacts on productivity and food security
• Institutions and policies for enhanced rural water quality management
• Determinants of adoption of advanced irrigation technologies
Summary and key IFPRI research goals
Current IFPRI work on irrigation is focused on social data collection (focus groups, surveys, experimental games) coupled to mathematical modeling, to address (broadly speaking):
• What are the benefits to particular irrigation schemes (such as smallholder irrigation)
• Who adopts irrigation programs and why (such as advanced irrigation technologies)
• What are the returns to particular investments in irrigation schemes (such as canal lining in Pakistan)