Human Longevity and

a New Vision of Aging

Natalia S. Gavrilova, Ph.D.Leonid A. Gavrilov, Ph.D.

Center on Aging

NORC and The University of Chicago Chicago, USA

Myth:Aging problem is just a problem of old

age

Facts: Aging problem is a problem of EVERYONE older than 10 years Aging starts very early! Death rates begin to increase with age after the 10th birthday

Aging starts early – at age 10

0.00001

0.0001

0.001

0.01

0.1

1

0 20 40 60 80 100

Age

log

(m

ort

ality

ra

te)

Men

Women

Source: Swedish official life table, 2005

Myth:There are stages in human life, and old age is just one of them

Fact: Death rates are doubling every eight years of age, with negligible effect of menopause or retirement on this process

Smooth Increase of Risk of Death with Age

U.S. population, 1999

Myth:Human beings are so complex that their aging is very special

Fact: We are not much different from worms and flies: There are general laws of aging and mortality, common for humans and many animals

Mortality of Humans and Fruit Flies

Myth:Those people who live longer are aging more slowly.

Fact: Actuarial aging rate is higher in low mortality populations with higher life expectancy. This is known as “compensation law of mortality.”

Compensation Law of Mortality

Convergence of Mortality Rates with Age

1 – India, 1941-1950, males 2 – Turkey, 1950-1951, males3 – Kenya, 1969, males 4 - Northern Ireland, 1950-

1952, males5 - England and Wales, 1930-

1932, females 6 - Austria, 1959-1961, females

7 - Norway, 1956-1960, females

Source: Gavrilov, Gavrilova,“The Biology of Life Span” 1991

Compensation Law of Mortality (Parental Longevity Effects)

Mortality Kinetics for Progeny Born to Long-Lived (80+) vs Short-Lived Parents

Sons DaughtersAge

40 50 60 70 80 90 100

Lo

g(H

azar

d R

ate)

0.001

0.01

0.1

1

short-lived parentslong-lived parents

Linear Regression Line

Age

40 50 60 70 80 90 100

Lo

g(H

azar

d R

ate)

0.001

0.01

0.1

1

short-lived parentslong-lived parents

Linear Regression Line

Common Myth:Biomedical war on aging will lead to catastrophic overpopulation.

Fact:Population changes are surprisingly small and slow in their response to a dramatic life extension.

Gavrilov, L., Gavrilova, N. Reliability theory of aging and longevity. In: Handbook of the Biology of Aging. Academic Press, 6th edition (published recently).

High Initial Damage Load (HIDL) Idea

"Adult organisms already have an exceptionally high load of initial damage, which is comparable with the amount of subsequent aging-related deterioration, accumulated during the rest of the entire adult life."

Source: Gavrilov, L.A. & Gavrilova, N.S. 1991. The Biology of Life Span: A Quantitative Approach. Harwood Academic Publisher, New York.

Practical implications from the HIDL hypothesis:

"Even a small progress in optimizing the early-developmental processes can potentially result in a remarkable prevention of many diseases in later life, postponement of aging-related morbidity and mortality, and significant extension of healthy lifespan."

Source: Gavrilov, L.A. & Gavrilova, N.S. 1991. The Biology of Life Span: A Quantitative Approach. Harwood Academic Publisher, New York.

New Vision of Aging-Related Diseases

Month of Birth

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

life

exp

ecta

ncy

at

age

80, y

ears

7.6

7.7

7.8

7.9

1885 Birth Cohort1891 Birth Cohort

Life Expectancy at Age 80 and Month of BirthData source: Social Security Death Master File

Published in:

Gavrilova, N.S., Gavrilov, L.A. Search for Predictors of Exceptional Human Longevity. In: “Living to 100 and Beyond” Monograph. The Society of Actuaries, Schaumburg, Illinois, USA, 2005, pp. 1-49.

Predictors of Exceptional Longevity

Approach

To study “success stories” in long-term avoidance of fatal diseases (survival to 100 years) and factors correlated with this remarkable survival success

Jeanne Calment (1875-1997)

Study 1

How centenarians are different from their shorter-

lived sibling?

People Born in November Have Twice Higher Chances to Live to

100Within-family study of 5,698 centenarians and their siblings survived to age 50

People Born to Young Mothers Have Twice Higher Chances to Live to 100Within-family study of 2,153 centenarians and their siblings survived to age 50. Family size

<9 children.

p=0.003

p=0.007

p=0.032

Being born to Young Mother Helps Laboratory Mice to Live

Longer Source:

Tarin et al., Delayed Motherhood Decreases Life Expectancy of Mouse Offspring.

Biology of Reproduction 2005 72: 1336-1343.

Possible explanation

These findings are consistent with the 'best eggs are used first' hypothesis suggesting that earlier formed oocytes are of better quality, and go to fertilization cycles earlier in maternal life.

Study 2

How centenarians are different from their shorter-lived peers

when compared at young adult age?

Physical Characteristics at Young Age

and Survival to 100

A study of future centenarians when they were 30 years old using WWI civil draft registration cards

Body Build and Survival to 100

People Who Are Not ‘Stout’ Have 2.6 Times Higher Chances to Live to 100

Results of multivariate study

Variable Odds Ratio

P-value

Medium height vs short and tall height

1.35 0.260

Slender and medium build vs stout build

2.63* 0.025

Farming 2.20* 0.016

Married vs unmarried 0.68 0.268

Native born vs foreign b.

1.13 0.682

Fathers With Many Children Have Higher Chances to Live

to 100Conditional (fixed-effects) logistic regressionN=171. Reference level: no children

VariableOdds ratio

95% CIP-

value

1-3 children 1.620.89-2.95

0.127

4+ children 2.710.99-7.39

0.051

AcknowledgmentsThis study was made possible thanks to:

generous support from the National Institute on Aging and

the Society of Actuaries

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