Post on 25-Jul-2020
Atmosphere Monitoring
T. Popp, F. Schnell, J. Meyer-Arnek / DLRL. Tarrason / NILUE. Wey, M. Marchand, C. Thomas / TSVA. Stidworthy / CERCon behalf of CAMS-94, ECMWF and CAMS contractors
How user feedback and requirements drive service evolution?
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U s e r i n v o l v e m e n t i n d e f i n i n g C A M S s c o p e
• > 10 years experience (GEMS, PROMOTE, MACC/-II/-III)St
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AtmosphereMonitoring
W h a t u s e r s o f p r e c u r s o r s e r v i c e s h a d s a i d
• Products and services need to be sustainable• Quality of products is Copernicus distinctive advantage• Full, free & open data policy• Reliability, timeliness: operational aspects• Easy data discovery, access, visualisation• User support and training
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1 0 Y e a r s o f U s e r R e q u i r e m e n t s E v o l u t i o n
Implementation group report, before start of MACC Overall scope, general functionalities
MACC & MACC-II Documentation, quality information, format, quicklooks/graphics Timeliness, resolution, coverage, forecast range License conditions, access manual, ftp access
MACC-II & MACC-III Operational (interface capacity, status information, consistency, web services) Uncertainties, quality flags, validation reports
CAMS Systematic analysis to drive service evolution priorities
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C A M S u s e r i n t e r a c t i o n a c t i v i t y
User Workshops
User Requirements Analysis
Service Evolution
User Requirements Database
Personal contact Helpdesk
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C A M S - 9 4 U s e r I n t e r a c t i o n s p e c i f i c t e a m
• CAMS user interaction team:• Leonor Tarrason, Etienne Wey, Mathilde Marchand, Claire
Thomas, Amy Stidworthy, Franziska Schnell, Julian Meyer-Arnek, Thomas Popp
• in close interaction with ECWMF and CAMS contractors
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S y s t e m a t i c a n a l y s i s o f u s e r r e q u i r e m e n t s
• Store requirements in a database• Assess feasibility with CAMS service provider
• Effort classes– minor (few days), small (1 month), medium (few months), large (full
study ~1 year), very large (full research project ~several years)
• Impact classes– high + wide (large number of users), high + specific (high power
user), medium (several users), little (single occasional user)
• Potential implementation– CAMS evolution, H2020 project, Sentinel requirement
• Trace analysis and implementation status
-> influence service evolution strategy
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C A M S u s e r r e q u i r e m e n t s i n t h e d a t a b a s e
160 requirements from MACC, MACC-II, MACC-III• Defining service scope• Initial user interaction loops during service demonstration
68 URs Collected since June 2016 from:• CAMS assembly 2016• User Workshops (Offenbach Nov 2016, Riga Oct 2016)• Policy User Workshop (Brussels Nov 2016)• Interaction with CAMS contractors• Copernicus User Support JIRA Service Desk
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R e q u i r e m e n t s a n a l y s i s / a s e l e c t i o nDescription Deviation Sentinel Requirement
Classificationcomment to classification Action Potential Impact
if implementedEstimated Class of Effort needed
comment
Global productsAerosol products shall include single scattering albedo.
add new aerosol parameter New requirement in scope
currently under investigation Consider for service evolution strategy
medium impact (several users making a similar request)
medium (few months of implementation / testing work)
Status MACC III: Aerosol species are being served as well as PM and AOD
The data about atmospheric compositions shall be expanded more into the stratosphere and mesosphere.
extend vertical coverage New requirement in scope
is currently in considereation; needs decisions on timing
Consider for service evolution strategy
medium impact (several users making a similar request)
large (full study ~1 year of work needed to test solutions)
Status MACC III: Means extension of scope, which needs discussion of priorities for resource allocation
Global re-analysisconsistent reanalysis extended back into time (model only without satellite assimilation)
length of record New requirement in scope
can not include data assimiaotion of satellite chemical observationbs, which are not available for earlier periods
Consider for service evolution strategy
little impact (requested only by single occasional user)
large (full study ~1 year of work needed to test solutions)
evaluation of quality would need dedicated study
20+ years high resolution reanalysis met data including rain and daylighting and broadband solar irradiation could be used for building modelling
needs general met data from ECMWF available reanalysis in addition to solar data
New requirement in scope
Consider for service evolution strategy
medium impact (several users making a similar request)
medium (few months of implementation / testing work)
This is typically a combination of historical solar and met data needed for creating TMY for diverse needs (building, solar power plants, biology, etc...)
A longer history of MACC data shall be provided (e.g. 20 years) for solar industry users.
time series too short New requirement in scope
Consider for service evolution strategy
medium impact (several users making a similar request)
medium (few months of implementation / testing work)
Status MACC III: Needs allocation of resources
AOD data shall be reanalysed for 1990-2002.
time series starts too late Already in URDB similar requirement for length of aerosol re-analysis > 20 years
Consider for service evolution strategy
medium impact (several users making a similar request)
medium (few months of implementation / testing work)
Status MACC III: Needs allocation of resources
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R e q u i r e m e n t s a n a l y s i s …
Description Deviation Sentinel RequirementClassification
comment to classification Action Potential Impact if implemented
Estimated Class of Effort needed
comment
European re-analysisNeed the hourly re-analysis data product for more years. Currently 2014 and 2015 are available; also need 2013 and 2012 if possible.
Data for 2014 and 2015 are already available; 2013 and 2012 are also required.
New requirement in scope
Needs further discussion
Medium impact (requested repeatedly
medium (few months of implementation / testing work)
all-Europe multi-annual air quality reanalysis for epidemiology
extend llength of time series (current back to 2013) to 2000
New requirement in scope
request by Imperial college / EU ELAPSE project for epidemiology community
Consider for service evolution strategy
high + specific impact (high power organisation as originator)
large (full study ~1 year of work needed to test solutions)
requires additional resource for processing 13 annual datasets
European ensembleseveral years of forecast data to calculate model output statistics
historic archive New requirement in scope
can be combined with data used for European assessment reports
Consider for service evolution strategy
high + specific impact (high power organisation as originator)
small (small adjustment below 1 month of work)
provide European ensemble for urban background / at higher resolution
higher spatial resoltuion to include urban background
New requirement in scope
would require substantial extension of scope and sufficient funding for operations - needs European agreement to be implemented, otherwise out of scope
Needs further discussion
high + wide impact (large number of users making a similar request)>
medium (few months of implementation / testing work)
alternative: CAMS could provide tools for statistical downscaling or handbook for those
Scenarios, assessmentsEuropean assessments for one year with emission scenarios for 2020 2025
next decade emission scenarios are implemented in gren scenario product, but this simulates only the next 3 days; use emission scenarios for next decade for annual assessments
New requirement in scope
would require extension of scope Consider for service evolution strategy
high + specific impact (high power organisation as originator)
large (full study ~1 year of work needed to test solutions)
EEA and national environment agencies are interested
AtmosphereMonitoring
R e q u i r e m e n t s a n a l y s i s …
Description Deviation Sentinel RequirementClassification
comment to classification Action Potential Impact ifimplemented
Estimated Class of Effort needed
comment
radiationResearch users have frequently asked for solar radiation maps
N/A as new product New requirement in scope
Needs to be further assessed; maybe fulfilled with the future CDS
New implementation in service, interface or website
medium impact (several users making a similar request)
medium (few months of implementation / testing work)
A first map of McClearand CAMS radiation GHI (16,000 points) at 0.2° resolution and for every 15 min MSG …
Radiation products shall be available in NRT in addition to archive access
CAMS McClear radiation product is limited to current day D-2 as it is using old forecasts for the aerosols and water vapor and O3 D-2 data; the needed data already exists but needs to be made available by ECMWF
New requirement in scope
Temporary: Iteration with Service Provider / ECMWF started
high + wide impact (large number of users making a similar request)>
small (small adjustment below 1 month of work)
The current CAMS McClear clrear sky radiation is available only at current day D-2, …
Users are asking for solar forecasts This would need to have access to the C-IFS solar radiation components forecasts
New requirement in scope
Needs further discussion
high + wide impact (large number of users making a similar request)>
large (full study ~1 year of work needed to test solutions)
Dry and wet deposition of dust aerosols are needed to monitor soiling of solar plants
In addition to the historical data for dust requested elsewhere, this demands access to the dust forecasts from the C-IFS product
New requirement in scope
Temporary: Iteration with Service Provider / ECMWF started
medium impact (several users making a similar request)
medium (few months of implementation / testing work)
This topic is very important for the economy of the solar plants in the arid and dusty areas
AtmosphereMonitoring
R e q u i r e m e n t s a n a l y s i s …
Description Deviation Sentinel RequirementClassification
comment to classification Action Potential Impact ifimplemented
Estimated Class of Effort needed
comment
communicationprovide systematic information on new products and services
New requirement in scope
Consider for service evolution strategy
little impact (requested only by single occasional user)
small (small adjustment below 1 month of work)
maintenance needs some continuous effort
a roadmap of planned changes / evolution of data access interfaces would help user planning their efforts to learn current interfaces
extend / add to operational info / system changes on the website (currently only history) also future planned schedule (currently some vague information is there)there)
New requirement in scope
New implementation in service, interface or website
medium impact (several users making a similar request)
small (small adjustment below 1 month of work)
needs regular updating of documentation on planned / scheduled system changes on the website
Data accessMetadata shall be provided in the netCDF-files.
Some information is given in the metadata in each data file, but the request is for more information to be given
Already in URDB
To be assessed in CAMS Needs further discussion
medium impact (several users making a similar request)
None these are different products
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I n n o v a t i o n p o t e n t i a l
Description Deviation Sentinel Requirement Classification
comment to classification Action Potential Impact if implemented
Estimated Class of Effort needed
comment
Lightning effects on ozone need to be estimated.
Out of scope for CAMS
needs specific reasearch tasks to develop a product
Consider for external research (H2020 et al.)
Status MACC III: Needs further investigation
A proper analysis of uncertainty contributions shall be provided.
conduct sensitivity studies to identify contributions to uncertainties
Out of scope for CAMS
requires large research studies for different products
Consider for external research (H2020 et al.)
medium impact (several users making a similar request)
very large (full research project needed ~several years of work)
Status MACC III: Under investigation; Very challenging
studies shall be conducted to understand the reasons for differences between forecasting models / uncertainties of the ensemble forecasts
better understand reasons for differences between models
Out of scope for CAMS
needs dedicated research project
Consider for external research (H2020 et al.)
medium impact (several users making a similar request)
very large (full research project needed ~several years of work)
global (and regional) AQ forecasts shall be improved to predict extremely high pollution levels
improved modeling capability for high pollution
Out of scope for CAMS
Consider for external research (H2020 et al.)
medium impact (several users making a similar request)
very large (full research project needed ~several years of work)
AtmosphereMonitoring
U s e r f e e d b a c k i m p a c t o n s e r v i c e e v o l u t i o n
Continuous service improvements for downstream services Increased resolution of global, fire datasets Increased area and forecast length of the regional ensemble Increased ensemble output: species, vertical layers Dedicated regional + policy support website
Continuous improvements of documentation and data access Online, extended, operational information inter-operable web services Service desk / knwoledgebase
New products in CAMS Seamless transition between MACC-III and operational phase (CAMS) Interim assessment reports to meet reporting obligation schedules Explore deposition product capabilities for soiling
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R e q u i r e m e n t s w i t h h i g h p o t e n t i a l i m p a c t
Description Keywords Origin Workshop/Presentation
Several years of forecast data to calculate model output statistics
air quality forecasts, model output statistics Person jira CUS-1322
Provide European ensemble for urban background / at higher resolution
European ensemble urban scale several
user workshops Offenbach, Brussels
European assessments for one year with emission scenarios for 2020 2025
European assessmentsscenarios for 2020 2025 Person
CAMS user workshop Offenbach 22/11/2016
solar forecasts irradiation, forecast other
Several requests from users to Transvalor and DLR in the scope of the day to day business (meetings, phone, e-mail)
All-Europe multi-annual air quality reanalysis for epidemiologymulti-annual, air quality, re-analysis Person EU ELAPSE project
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T a r g e t e d s e r v i c e s M A C C
allair qualityemissions and surface fluxesglobal atmospheric compositionsolar radiationozone layer / UV
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T a r g e t e d s e r v i c e s C A M S
allair qualityemissions and surface fluxesglobal atmospheric compositionsolar radiation
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R e q u i r e m e n t C l a s s i f i c a t i o n M A C C
Already fulfilledAlready in URDBNew requirement in scopeOut of scope for CAMS
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R e q u i r e m e n t C l a s s i f i c a t i o n C A M S
Already fulfilledAlready in URDBNew requirement in scopeOut of scope for CAMS
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P o t e n t i a l i m p a c t i f i m p l e m e n t e d M A C C
high + specific impact (high powerorganisation as originator)high + wide impact (large number ofusers making a similar request)>medium impact (several usersmaking a similar request)little impact (requested only bysingle occasional user)None
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P o t e n t i a l i m p a c t i f i m p l e m e n t e d C A M S
high + specific impact (high powerorganisation as originator)high + wide impact (large number ofusers making a similar request)>medium impact (several usersmaking a similar request)little impact (requested only bysingle occasional user)None
AtmosphereMonitoring • Co-organized with national user community
– Focus on their specific needs– Stimulate exchange between users
• 2 dedicated per annum, 1 at annual assembly
• 2016 user workshops:ffenba– Riga (18 October), Och (22 November)– Athens (assembly user day 15 June), Brussels (DG-ENV, 28 November, policy focus)
• 2017 user workshops– Warsaw (17 May, Polish community)– Utrecht (13 June, Dutch and Belgian communities)– Madrid (TBD in autumn, industries focus)– XXX (TBD in autumn, with EEA + EIONET, policy focus)
U s e r w o r k s h o p s
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C o n c l u s i o n
You are most welcome to contact us with your needs and feedback
• ECMWF staff• CAMS helpdesk• CAMS-94 (thomas.popp@dlr.de and partners)• “your” CAMS contractor
• … at user workshops / user days– Utrecht, 13 June 2017– Madrid, autumn 2017– Kopenhagen (policy), autumn 2017
• TODAY