Post on 07-Feb-2016
description
How to Calculate BM/OM Ratio?— Theoretical Basis and Its Application —
Climate Experts Ltd.Naoki Matsuo
n_matsuo@climate-experts.info
Released!
What information is needed?
Conventional MethodologiesOnly calculation method of EF (emission factor) is providedLittle consideration of “What is the Baseline Scenario”
Important Information:Which measures (plants) would be used to provide the electricity to meet the demand? Capacity/Fuel/Operation/When? (for BM) How? (for OM)
Shall the Methodology provide the steps “How to identify the Baseline Scenario” ?
A Simple Example I
Scenarios:PJS: NG: 100 MW (EFNG)BLS: Coal: 60 MW (EFCoal) identification needed!
• This means that – the project replaces the installation plan of
60 MW coal fired power plant, or – postpone the power development plan,
which may be by coal fired power plant(s) with 60% of the project capacity (for a while).
A Simple Example II
Build Margin Component:60 MW / 100 MW = 0.6
Operating Margin Component:(100 MW – 60 MW) / 100 MW = 0.4
Emission Factor of the Displacement EffectEFDisplacement = 0.4·EFGrid(OM) + 0.6·(EFCoal – EFNG)
Emission Reductions = ElectricityNG· EFDisplacement
AssumptionOperation pattern of Coal and NG are identical
NG100 MW
Coal 60 MW
PJS BLS
OM
BM
Formula
€
wOM =CAPADD
PJ −CAPADDBL
CAPADDPJ
⎡
⎣ ⎢ ⎤
⎦ ⎥
wBM =CAPADD
BL
CAPADDPJ
⎡
⎣ ⎢ ⎤
⎦ ⎥
Assumption Operation pattern of PJ and BL plants are identical In case operation pattern is different, generated electricity
is used, instead of capacity. (not easy to obtain BL plant’s electricity generation because it depends on the grid operation method)
Theory I
Theory II
€
BE = dE0
EBAUBL
∫ EFBAU (E) + dE0
EADDBL
∫ EFADDBL(E)
PE = dE0
EBAUPJ
∫ EFBAU (E) + dE0
EADDPJ
∫ EFADDPJ (E)
€
ER = dEEBAU
PJ
EBAUBL
∫ EFBAU (E) − dEEADD
BL
EADDPJ
∫ EFADDPJ(E)[ ] + dE
0
EADDBL
∫ ΔEFADD(E)
€
dE EF (E)E0
E0+δE
∫ ≅ δE EF (E0 )
€
EROM ≅ (EADDPJ − EADD
BL) EFBAU(EBAUPJ )− EFADD
PJ(EADDPJ)[ ]
= EADDPJ
•(EADD
PJ − EADDBL)
EADDPJ
⎡
⎣
⎢ ⎢ ⎢
⎤
⎦
⎥ ⎥ ⎥• EFBAU(EBAU
PJ )− EFADDPJ(EADD
PJ)[ ]
= EADDPJ
• wOM • EFOM
ERBM = EADDPJ
•1
EADDPJ
⎡
⎣
⎢ ⎢ ⎢
⎤
⎦
⎥ ⎥ ⎥• dE ΔEFADD(E)
0
EADDBL
∫
≅ EADDPJ
•EADD
BL
EADDPJ
⎡
⎣
⎢ ⎢ ⎢
⎤
⎦
⎥ ⎥ ⎥• EFBM
= EADDPJ
• wBM • EFBM
CD-ROM (E-Card) available !